Business Monitor International (BMI) has published a new report on the oil industry in Iraq.
BMI forecasts that Iraq will account for 10.27% of Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 11.56% of supply. Middle East regional oil use of 4.98mn b/d in 2001 will rise to an estimated7.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should average 7.70mn b/d in 2011 and then rise to around8.70mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 22.83mn b/d in 2001 and will average an estimated24.96mn b/d in 2010. After an estimated 25.22mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 27.24mn b/d by 2015. Oilexports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001,the region was exporting an average of 17.85mn b/d. This total will ease to an estimated 17.55mn b/d in2010 and is forecast to reach 18.54mn b/d by 2015. Iraq has the greatest export growth potential, followedby Qatar.
In terms of natural gas, the region will consume an estimated 391bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 483bcm targeted for 2015, representing 23.7% growth. Production of an estimated 467bcm in2010 should reach 614bcm in 2015 (+31.4%), which implies net exports rising to 130bcm by the end ofthe period. In 2010, Iraq will consume an estimated 1.28% of the region’s gas, with its market shareforecast at 2.38% by 2015. It will contribute 1.07% to estimated 2010 regional gas production and by2015 could account for 2.93% of supply.