Iraq One Year From Now

Having welcomed in a new year, many of us will have hopes and dreams for the twelve months ahead.

And with Iraq in a state of flux following the departure of American troops, the range of possible outcomes for the country is very wide; Iraq has the ability to make 2012 a transformative year, for better or worse.

The momentum in terms of investment and development is still clearly in a positive direction, but it is essential that political wrangling, ethnic disputes and corruption are not allowed to deflect that momentum.

What are your hopes for Iraq in 2012, and what are your predictions for the state of the country one year from now? Whatever your connection with Iraq, we’d love to hear your opinions in the comments section below.

Many readers of Iraq Business News will also be interested in our recently-launched sister publication, Libya Business News, which will issue its first weekly newsletter on Tuesday. As with IBN, the newsletter is free of charge, and you can sign up simply by clicking here adding your email address.

20 Responses to Iraq One Year From Now

  1. Robert Tollast January 5, 2012 at 2:54 am #

    My hopes for Iraq:

    -Iraqi politicians stop bickering, work harder to fight corruption and turn the rapid economic growth into jobs.
    -Perhaps then Iraq may be viewed as a country, not a conflict.
    -American and industrial world politicians: Do not except Nouri Kamal al Maliki’s continued sectarian policies toward Sunni’s and the Awakening councils. Please use diplomatic leverage i.e do not blindly let $18 billion dollar arms contracts etc.go ahead with a man who is pushing Iraq back to the brink.

    Iraq one year from now:
    Finally some job creation in the private sector by then, as well as a political solution to the current crisis, and a slight improvement in public services,but not before the occasional alarming, localised outbreak of violence/ rioting, which will prompt doomy predictions, but will not represent a slide back to civil war. Prognosis for 2013: Troubled but still on the road to recovery.

  2. Hussain January 5, 2012 at 3:04 am #

    I hope that Iraq’s military will become stronger and more useful help put a stop to the terrorist activities going on.

    I hope that Iraq’s government won’t have anymore corruption and be stable.

    I hope that a there is a combine effort from the Government and the people to rebuild the country and make it strong again economically and politically.

  3. RICHIE CHOP January 5, 2012 at 3:13 am #

    I see blood running down the streets again…I see USA setting up a permanent base up North with the Kurds and them separating from the rest of Iraq…I see present Prime Minister taking a dirt nap or fleeing Iraq with his ill gotten gains and the same for His side Kick “S” the old Oil Minister…I say we should have never went there to begin with and we should have never had SOFA without certain Mandates!!!completed before we left i.e Census/art140/HCL to name a few!!!!..they completed Nothing but a buncha HOT AIR..and seems like that’s just how “they”.. want Iraq…in implosion mode…Big Oil Boys never wanted Iraqs Oil on the market..they just wanted control..I would say the Price” they” get now for Oil has been putting smiles on there faces for a while now..more oil means less $ PPB….sure hope when this IMPLOSION hits like I think it will the CBI does not get looted…was looking for a few pennies per dinar!

  4. Mohammad January 5, 2012 at 6:31 am #

    For next year seems like this is all part of major conspiracy of breaking Iraq, paid by major oil companies to breakaway minded leaders , as more part of Iraq ecomes availabe to individually deal with, the most benifit goes to oil major and the breakaway leaders and not to the people, and thus a new game is emerging with sponsers as major oil companies.

    To be seen if there is a will to keep politician together for the next year , which will draw direction for any sector trying to make it work or not.

  5. Nicasso January 5, 2012 at 1:39 pm #

    I can’t see any significant political changes in the next year. PM Maliki will adopt a bunker mentality and spend more and more time in the International Zone surrounded by loyalists and heavy security. He will cling on to as much power as possible for as long as possible but may make some token concessions to al Iraqiya in the face of US/international pressure.

    The security situation will worsen slightly with more al Qaeda spectaculars. Assassinations of security forces, awakening members and civil servants will continue at the same pace.

    The oil majors and oil service companies will continue to make steady profits from operations in Iraq but not the mega bucks that some think they will gain – the operating costs involved in repairing infrastructure mean that there will be no bonanza for some time. The oil majors are playing the long game in iraq.

  6. John Arthur January 5, 2012 at 3:41 pm #

    I can see the people of Iraq united soon for the social, political and economical development of their Great country in order to prevent the return of US occupation, too many sacrifices were made by innocent Iraqis I am hoping and praying for the best here. The Future is Bright and Beautiful for this year and beyond.

  7. Mark January 5, 2012 at 4:15 pm #

    You go John! If we can get rid of the few disruptive idiots that are motivated by greed and pray for the majority of the people that want to live in a stable and safe enviroment, then we will be on the right road. This is a once in a life time chance for the people of Iraq.

  8. John Arthur January 5, 2012 at 5:03 pm #

    Mark, I am an optimist at heart and I am aware of what you are talking about, most of the idiots you are referring to are accountable to their bosses in the West. I am just praying that good sense prevail and the masses stand up for what they want. The troops are always on stand by to return in order to protect American and their friends investments there.

  9. Jeffrey January 6, 2012 at 5:11 pm #

    I just want the Dinar to skyrocket so I can make a lot of money!!!

  10. John Arthur January 6, 2012 at 9:06 pm #

    The Dinar won’t revalue until the end of 2012 and that is if all goes well.

  11. Stew January 6, 2012 at 10:26 pm #

    The Central Bank of Iraq is currently spending on the order of 1/4 of a billion dollars a day to keep the dinar stable at 1170.
    Just how long do you think they will continue to do that?
    There already is, and will be more pressure put on them to stop wasting dollars defending the dinar. That money would be better spent on other things and let the dinar sink and die.
    There will never be a RV like dinar sites claim. It is a scam.

  12. Stew January 6, 2012 at 10:37 pm #

    Think about this. Iraq sells about 2 million barrels of oil a day. That’s $200 million. They are spending more than that, about $250 million a day defending and propping up the dinar just to maintain 1170. They are currently spending more dollars per day just to keep the rate at 1170 than they take in every day in oil sales.
    Iraqs M2 is 60 trillion dinar. The only people that want dinar are the dinar dealers and the people who have fallen for the scam. Banks are unloading dinar at the CBI auctions at a rate of 250 BILLION dinar a day… demanding dollars back for those dinar.
    So dinar holders are hording dinar, and banks are unloading it. Who do you think is right?

  13. John Arthur January 7, 2012 at 1:22 am #

    Stew, I tend to agree with you on this, what you are saying makes a lot of sense but what do you think about The statement coming from the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde, here is the IMF statement. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11465.htm

    Your opinion will be highly appreciated.

  14. Steve January 7, 2012 at 1:33 am #

    Iraq will become the world strongest economic and religious center in the world. Prophesy clearly defines this in Gods word and it will take place. Iraq is modern day Babylon which must be rebuilt before its totally destroyed. Iraq will and has been working through their minor problems and soon you will see a majority government and a budget with a revalued currency that will provide many jobs not only in Iraq bit through out the whole world. What most people do not realize is the bigger picture of all this. Yes the Dinar will revalue this year and it appears sometime the first quarter of 2012. For all naysayers and the negativity towards Iraq and the currency revaluation it is clear you act emotional and have not followed this very long. Study what has happen since 2003 till now. It is a clear picture of a new Iraq and the fulfillment of Gods Prophsey.

  15. Stew January 7, 2012 at 4:27 am #

    It looks like standard “continued cooperation” stuff. I don’t see anything in there that would lead me to believe a huge increase in value of the dinar is coming.
    In fact… she actually states the Stand By Arrangement will continue to act as a backstop. Countries that supposedly can afford to increase their currency value 100,000% would not need to be under an IMF SBA plan. Look at a list of countries under SBAs… they are all pretty poor countries.

  16. Saif January 7, 2012 at 9:54 am #

    Iraq with 95% economy refected by oil, 2nd largest oil producer in the world and you still claim the country is poor.. wake up stew!

  17. John Arthur January 7, 2012 at 12:08 pm #

    Excellent, Stew we are on the same page.

  18. John Arthur January 7, 2012 at 1:52 pm #

    Certainly Iraq is not poor if we are to look at the natural resources it has, like Oil, Silver, Gold, water just to name a few, but then they are spending more than they are earning daily in a very political,Social and economic hostile environment so here is my question, What are the prerequisites for a strong currency in any Country?

  19. Editor January 7, 2012 at 2:04 pm #

    Thanks to all for your contributions, but I will stop any further discussion of dinar revaluation at this point, as that is not the purpose of this thread.

    There are plenty of other dinar-related articles where these comments would be more appropriate, for example:
    http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2012/01/03/central-bank-defends-weak-iraqi-dinar/
    http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2011/04/20/redenomination-and-the-spinal-tap-fallacy/
    http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2011/03/29/iraqi-dinar-revaluation-enthusiasts-are-unaware-of-bernie-madoff%e2%80%99s-fame/

    Thank you.

  20. Joe June 9, 2012 at 5:50 am #

    I think your all wrong when you say Iraq will not only maintain but grow. Things are begining to settle down. Take a look at Germany or Japan. Most so-called experts said they would never recover.
    I personally believe they will prosper and the Dinar will grow beyond your expectations.