Iraqi Economy to Shrink in 2014

By John Lee.

A new report from the International Monetary Fund says that Iraq’s economy is expected to shrink by 2.7 percent this year as a result of the security crisis in the country.

This follows a 4.2 percent growth in GDP in 2013 and 10.3 percent the previous year, and would be the first contraction since the change of regime in 2003. A growth rate of 1.5 percent is predicted for 2015.

Inflation is estimated at 4.7 percent this year and 6.2 percent in 2015.

The report forecasts a slight decline in oil producton to 2.9 million bpd this year, while exports of 2.4 million bpd should remain close to last year’s level.

The IMF forecasts a slight increase in oil production to 3.0 millon bpd, but has reduced its longer-term output projection from 5.6 million bpd to 4.4 million bpd in 2019.

Non-oil GDP is expected to fall by 4.3 percent this year, then grow by 3.5 percent next year.

(Sources: IMF, Reuters)

(GDP image via Shutterstock)

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