Mid-Yr Assessment of Oil Revenues, Budgetary Implications

By Ahmed Mousa Jiyad.

Any opinions expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Mid-year Assessment of Oil Export Revenues and Budgetary Implications

Iraqi data on oil exports and generated revenues for the first half of 2017 provide the material evidence to assess the impacts of the first accord of OPEC production cut on Iraq and its fiscal crisis.

During the first half of the year, Iraq’s oil export prices has been on the decline reaching the critical benchmark of $42 a barrel; deficit in oil export revenues was, partially, resulted from KRG non-compliance, and its impact on Kirkuk, with this year Budget Law, though much of that deficit was compensated by exports from the south.

And with most predictions of further decline in oil prices budgetary deficit could be deepen.

This assessment and for comparison purposes covers nine months period divided into two sub-periods: the first is pre-OPEC cut commencement, which covers the fourth quarter of 2016 (4Q2016) and the second post-OPEC cut commencement, which covers the first half 2017 (1H2017) and also the full term of first OPEC cut accord; and this second period is also divided into two quarterly periods; 1Q2017 and 2Q2017.

The paper addresses first oil price and oil exports, then assesses the budgetary implications and finally provides brief note the prospects of oil prices for the rest of the year. All data are from official/formal sources.

Please click here to download the full report.

Mr Jiyad is an independent development consultant, scholar and Associate with the former Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES), London. He was formerly a senior economist with the Iraq National Oil Company and Iraq’s Ministry of Oil, Chief Expert for the Council of Ministers, Director at the Ministry of Trade, and International Specialist with UN organizations in Uganda, Sudan and Jordan. He is now based in Norway (Email: mou-jiya(at)online.no, Skype ID: Ahmed Mousa Jiyad). Read more of Mr Jiyad’s biography here.

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