On August 1, 2017, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2017 Article IV consultation with Iraq.
Iraq is facing a double shock arising from the conflict with ISIS and the plunge in oil prices.
In 2016, real GDP increased by 11 percent owing to a 25 percent increase in oil production, which was little affected by the conflict with ISIS. This year, economic activity is expected to remain muted due to a 1.5 percent contraction in oil production owing to the OPEC + agreement to reduce oil production and only a modest recovery of the non-oil sector.
The decline in oil prices has driven the decline of Iraq’s international reserves from $54 billion at end-2015 to $45 billion at end-2016. Fiscal pressures are ongoing, with the government deficit increasing from 12 percent of GDP in 2015 to 14 percent in 2016 despite the ongoing fiscal consolidation, due to weaker oil prices and rising humanitarian and security spending.
The authorities have appropriately maintained the exchange rate peg. The simplification of documentation requirements implemented by the Central Bank of Iraq led to a decline in the parallel market spread to 6 percent in June 2017.
Medium-term growth prospects are positive. Growth will be driven by the projected moderate increase in oil production and the rebound in non-oil growth supported by the expected improvement in security and implementation of structural reform. Risks remain very high, however, arising primarily from volatile security, political tensions, and poor policy implementation.