National Overview

The total number of officially reported hostile incidents nationally was 126 last week, consistent with the number of incidents recorded during the last reporting period. The number of incidents in the west rose by a quarter this week and incidents in Baghdad also rose significantly. The south east saw a very minor rise in the number of incidents. Incidents in the south central, north and north central areas decreased this week.

Although incident levels have remained consistent over this fortnight, the incidents occurring last week affected far fewer casualties and caused less damage. Insurgents operating in the north central and western areas appear to be benefiting from increased freedom of movement brought about by the fall in number of U.S. Forces.

There were further attacks on infrastructure during the reporting period, including Improvised Explosive Device attacks against electrical pylons in Hillah, power generators in Baghdad and a water tower in Anbar. These attacks are assessed to have been the work of Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQIZ) or their associated movements seeking to undermine local and national Government.

The resilient militant networks who undertook the 25 August attacks will be difficult to uproot and we can expect further synchronized attacks to come, probably to correspond with future religious festivals or indeed new government formation. The Ramadan / Eid religious ceremonial period provides a unique opportunity for insurgents to attack when the security forces and civilians’ defences are low. This year the Eid festival will coincide with the anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, which is potentially an irresistible coincidence for Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQIZ) and their associated movements to launch large scale attacks.

The most likely culprits were neo-Baathist insurgents, probably with assistance from Islamist elements such as Al-Qaeda in Iraq (branded as the Islamic State of Iraq). Though almost all the mass casualty bombings were remote-controlled car bombs, at least two of the thirteen devices were suicide-detonated, indicating an Islamist element. According to Olive’s contacts in the U.S. government, key former regime leaders such as Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri are floating to the top of the boiled-down insurgency. These figures are able to bridge the divide between nationalist and Islamist wings of the insurgency and even to cross sectarian and ethnic lines to some extent. The objective of such movements is to maintain resistance and foster a state of chaos until such time as the Iraqi people call for a stronger nationalist government. At that point, it is posited by U.S. intelligence analysts, elements of the old Baath will seek to gain power through election, running on a platform of experience in security and governance, technocratic competence, and toughness vis-à-vis Iran.

Baghdad

Reported incidents in Baghdad rose from 34 to 47 last week. The International Zone was targeted for three days in a row during the reporting period. This is a continuation of Shia’a militants’ harassment campaign to coincide with the draw down of US Forces. One of the attacks was seemingly conducted to coincide with the visit of US Vice President Joe Biden. Shia’a insurgents were also responsible for the IDF attack against Victory Base Camp – none of the attacks resulted in death or serious injury.

An electricity generator was targeted with an Improvised Explosive Device in the Shia’a area of west Rasid. This may have been carried out by Sunni insurgents to stoke up anger and provoke a response. Such attacks are often conducted to undermine faith in the ability of the GoI to provide basic essential services.

Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Devices remained the most prevalent form of assassination in the City in this reporting period. An Iraqi Police Services member working at the passport office in Kadimiyah was killed by an Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Device on 31 August and an Iraqi Security Forces Colonel was injured by device on 02 September; several civilians (probably with links to Government of Iraq or Iraqi Security Forces) were also targeted during the review period. However, the most significant Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Device attack was aimed at Hussein al Mir’ibi, a leading figure in the Shia’a Fadhila party and member of the Iraqi National Alliance, who did not sustain any injuries from the attack.

Basra

There was only one significant hostile incident in Basra last week which took the form of an Improvised Explosive Device attack against a Private Security Company vehicle as it transited south west of Az Zubayr on route Tampa. The Improvised Explosive Device damaged the vehicle but did not result in any injuries. The area in which the attack took place has been targeted several times in the recently as insurgents know that there is a large volume of United States Forces – Iraq, Iraqi Security Forces and Private Security Company traffic in the area.

The discovery of two Improvised Explosive Devices and an Explosively Formed Projectile around the province indicates that Shia’a insurgent intent remains high. The Explosively Formed Projectile discovery was made in the vicinity of route Tampa in Umm Qasr and was likely designed to target a passing United States Forces – Iraq or Private Security Company convoy as there are an increasing number transporting United States Military equipment out of Iraq via Umm Qasr port.

Atmospherics in Basra were tainted by more demonstrations in the City protesting against the lack of electricity in the province. According to open sources, authorities in Muthana province took action against illegal electricity lines enabling them to increase the electricity supply. Further civil demonstrations in the south east region can be expected.

Iraq has tightened security around oil infrastructure and oilfields in the south, in response to intelligence suggesting al Qaeda and other insurgent groups plan to attack oil facilities, a security official said.

Reuters reports that Ali al-Maliki, head of the municipal security committee in the southern oil hub of Basra, said the information indicated that al Qaeda in Iraq and Saddam Hussein’s outlawed Ba’ath party were switching their sights to economic targets and oil companies.

“We have received intelligence information of a plan to target oil facilities, including oilfields, by al Qaeda and Baathist insurgent groups,” Maliki told Reuters in an interview.

“We have prepared a pre-emptive plan to protect vital oil facilities and foreign oil investors,” he added, without providing details.

“We have met representatives from foreign oil firms in coordination with the South Oil Company and pledged to provide full protection at the oilfields and highways they use.”

It is difficult for Sunni Islamist insurgents to operate in the largely Shi’ite undetected, and al Qaeda in Iraq and other insurgent groups are usually associated with attacks on oil pipelines in Iraq’s north, where they continue to find safe havens.

The main threat so far in the south are the Iranian-made roadside bombs planted by Shi’ite militia to target U.S. forces.

The head of the oil police in Basra, Brigadier Moussa Abdul Hasan, said his forces were on alert, but a lack of cooperation and coordination with the private security companies hired by oil firms was hampering their efforts.

“We are well prepared to stop any attacks and to deal with the worst scenarios,” Abdul Hasan told Reuters. “Our main concerns are to keep the routes to oilfields widely used by foreign firms clear of roadside bombs.”

(Source: Reuters)

Seven years after the invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein, Iraq largely has been unable to revamp business laws that would help make the country more attractive to investors, according to a report from Bloomberg.

“Investors still note security concerns, but now are more likely to cite regulatory hindrances and other practical barriers to doing business,” the U.S. State Department said in its 2010 Investment Climate Statement on Iraq.

Foreign direct investment totaled $1.1 billion in 2009, most of it in the oil industry, according to the United Nations July World Investment Report. Neighboring Iran, under a fourth set of UN sanctions, took in three times as much.

Lawmakers in the outgoing parliament weren’t able to approve 72 draft laws meant to help accelerate economic growth, said Thair Feely, director of the government’s Baghdad Investment Commission.

Legislation awaiting approval includes a measure that would make it easier to register a company. “It can take four or five months and costs a fortune, about $15,000 to $20,000, compared to only 200 pounds ($300) in the U.K.,” Feely said by phone from Baghdad. “It’s unfair.”

The World Bank estimates it takes an average of 77 days to open a business in Iraq, almost four times the average in the region. Iraq fell three places in the Washington-based bank’s 183-country ease-of-doing-business scale to 153rd this year, below Tajikistan and Haiti.

Issues such as a cash-based banking system, corruption and limitations on land ownership have also damped investment, said Arndt Fritscher of the Berlin-based Rebuild Iraq Recruitment Program, which works with 160 European, mostly German, companies with business interests in Iraq.

“The security situation is not our problem because we just pay more,” Fritscher said. “German industry is ready to go, but there is no basis to go from. We would like to set up power plants, for example, we just need the ground.”

Iraq’s National Investments Law of 2006 bars foreigners from owning land, though it was amended in November to allow non-Iraqis to buy property for housing projects. Berlin-based Transparency International, an anti-graft group, placed Iraq and Sudan in fourth to last place in its 2009 corruption index of 180 countries.

The economy is estimated to have expanded 4.2 percent last year, the Washington-based IMF said, powered by oil exports. Companies including London-headquartered BP Plc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, which is based in The Hague, and Paris-based Total SA, have signed contracts with Iraq to boost oil production after two bidding rounds for development rights last year, even in the absence of a hydrocarbons law. A third bidding round for natural-gas deposits is set for later this year.

“The oil business has such great profits and returns on investments that companies are willing to take risks,” said Ascanio Martelli, chairman of Bari, Italy-based Atami Group, which acts as a consultant for Italian energy companies working or seeking to work in Iraq, in a telephone interview.

The government has pushed through some measures to attract investors. The National Investments Law exempts foreign companies from paying taxes for 10 years and from paying import fees for three years.

“We are trying to offer incentives,” Iraqi government spokesman Ali Al-Dabbagh said in an interview from Baghdad. “Our industries have many problems that do not encourage foreign investors or even local industrialists.”

Iraq needs $400 to 500 billion to get things back on track, according to the Baghdad Investment Commission’s Feely.

“Unfortunately, we only receive hopes and promises,” he said. “We can’t do it without foreign investment. We can’t do it on our own.”

(Source: Bloomberg)

National Overview

The total number of hostile incidents reported nationally was 125 this week, down from 132 incidents during the last reporting period. There was a significant rise in the number of recorded incidents in the north central region with slight rises in the west, south central and south east regions. The north dropped slightly, but of note is the reduction in incidents in Baghdad that fell from 51 officially reported incidents to just 34.

The holy month of Ramadan, in its third week, has seen once of the most well coordinated country wide attacks ever in Iraq. On 25 Aug approximately 13 cities were targeted with various forms attack from suicide attacks to Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices and complex attacks. This resulted in between 50 – 75 deaths across the country; Ramadan is still thought to offer an excellent opportunity for insurgents to exploit due to the lax security across the country.

The last US combat brigade pulled out of Iraq on 19 Aug, a key milestone in the withdrawal of American forces more than seven years in Iraq and earlier than the advertised date of 31 Aug. Since this withdrawal there has been much speculation as to whether this withdrawal was undertaken too early, and whether the Iraqi Security Forces are in a position to secure the country robustly. The President of the U.S., Barack Obama, announced this on 31 Aug and reiterated that Iraq was now a ‘sovereign’ state.

On 22 Aug three 107mm rounds landed with in the Basra Contingency Operating Base killing one U.S. soldier. This was the first U.S. casualty since the withdrawal from Iraq of the last U.S. combat troops.

25 August – Iraq wide attacks

Iraqi insurgents carried out what seems to be a very well coordinated chain of attacks across Iraq that targeted a large number of Iraqi cities. It has been reported that approximately 75 people have been killed along with an estimated 400 being wounded. Most of the attacks targeted the Iraqi Police and Army contingents and it is thought that 27 of the dead are actually Iraqi Security Forces.

Iraq country-wide attack locations – 25 August 2010

The majority of the attacks appear to have taken place between 0615hrs and 1200hrs with further sporadic attacks continuing throughout the day.

The purpose of these attacks could have been to send a message that the insurgents can still strike anywhere in Iraq. While many of the targets were relatively soft, casualties appear to have been fairly limited in almost all cases. Most of the attacks killed fewer than 10 people; the only attack that registered a high casualty rate was a car bomb in Kut, which killed approximately 30.

Various tactics were used in the string of attacks, including suicide bombers, Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices, other Improvised Explosive Devices, armed raids and, in at least one case, a follow-on attack after an explosion likely targeting first responders. Insurgents have carried out coordinated attacks before but never on so many cities simultaneously.

Attacking such large number of locations in a coordinated manner could show that a number of different cells were involved and communicated with each other across Iraq. Although the extent of planning and coordination is unknown, it does show that a significant amount of prior planning and communication must have been involved. Even though these attacks seem well coordinated it does not mean that there is an insurgent capability in Iraq that reflects a very close-knit ‘unit’ of smaller cells. It does, however, serve as a reminder that a broad insurgent base is still very much active across Iraq and can almost flex their muscles at will.

Baghdad

Reported incidents in Baghdad have decreased this week from 51 to 34. For the last three weeks the number of incidents had climbed, this is the lowest number of incidents for six weeks.

The International Zone was targeted on two occasions this month. The majority of attacks this week took the form of an Improvised Explosive Devices with half of the incidents being of this nature.

Of note is the attack that took place on 25 Aug when five different areas of Baghdad were attacked during the 25 Aug coordinated country-wide attacks. A suicide truck bomber killed 15 people and wounded at least 56 others in an attack on a police station and parts of a police station in Baghdad’s northern Qahira district also collapsed and surrounding houses were severely damaged when another device exploded nearby.

Although there has bee a reduction in the number of Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Devices reported this week, there have still bee seven attacks this week in the city with one attack resulting in the death of two civilians and two separate attacks on the Iraqi Security Forces on 28 Aug

Basra

It has been a relatively quiet week this week in terms of the number of incidents in Basra.

There have been just four incidents this reporting period, one attack from Indirect Fire against the COB, an Explosively Formed Projectile attack against a U.S. Forces convoy, and two Improvised Explosive Device attacks. Of particular note is the attack that took place on 25 Aug in Basra city involving what is thought to have been a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device. This was part of what seem to be a well coordinated attack across the country. Casualty figures in the Basra attack are thought to be no dead but up to a dozen wounded. The last attack of similar magnitude took place on 10 May of this year when a number of cities were again attacked by insurgents in another coordinated attack resulting in approximately 100 dead.

The last Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device attack in Basra took place on 07 Aug and that came just three months after the 10 May attack that also used the same kind Improvised Explosive Devices. Between 13 and 17 July there was a heightened threat around the Basra COB from this form of attack, but nothing actually materialised. The Iraqi Security Forces have suspected that an AQIZ cell has been operating in the province; the Iraqi Police Service reported on 22 Aug that Basra police forces had seized two vehicles which have been improvised as car bombs to be detonated in a local market in central Basra. No further information has been received since, regarding this discovery.

Earlier in the month on 01 Aug an Iraqi Army search operation uncovered a large weapons cache at a property south of Az Zubayr. Amongst other weaponry and equipment, the cache consisted of Improvised Explosive Device magnets, 200 cables with detonation devices and 75 Improvised Explosive Device detonators. This equipment could easily have been used for the production of Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices; the fact more have detonated and been found since this cache was located suggests the devices used in the 07 Aug attack were already built or there is much more equipment out there for the manufacture of this kind of device.

On 22 Aug at 0550hrs the Basra Contingency Operating Base was targeted by three rounds of 107mm Indirect Fire. The three Points of Impact (POI) were reported, resulting in the death of a U.S. soldier,

This was the fourth Indirect Fire attack so far on the Basra Contingency Operating Base during August and the third since 15 Aug, July has seen the busiest month in 2010 in terms of Indirect Fire with five separate attacks.

AFP reports that 90 percent of the $1.9m batch of US-purchased computers destined for schoolchildren but allegedly sold off on the cheap have been recovered.

As we reported on Saturday, an unnamed senior official at Umm Qasr port had reportedly misappropriated the gift and auctioned the computers for just $45,700.

But customs chief Nofal Salim denied the claim, saying the sale was in accordance with a legal disposal procedure for all goods not claimed by the addressee 90 days after their arrival in Iraq.

“On May 19 we received a list from the port of Umm Qasr of containers arriving more than 90 days earlier and which had not been claimed,” Salim said.

“No container belonging to the American military appeared on the list.

“However, there were two belonging to a company named Global, although there was no indication that they were destined for the education authorities in Babil province.”

Global did not submit a claim for the containers until August 22, six months after their arrival, Salim said.

“The customs service in the south cancelled the sale and has recovered more than 90 percent of the cargo, which will be sent to the Umm Qasr port where the company can get them back.”

But in a statement received on Saturday the US military disputed Salim’s version of events.

“The disposition of the shipment was unknown until early April when the two containers, containing the computers, were identified through shipping documents,” a spokesman from the US army’s southern division told AFP.

“Once identified, US forces began coordinating transportation for the containers and computers from the port to Babil province.

“During this process the containers were declared abandoned by custom officials and subsequently put up for and sold at auction.”

The US army commander in southern Iraq, Major General Vincent Brooks, called on Friday for “an immediate investigation into the actions of the Umm Qasr official.”

Umm Qasr is a large port, and corruption issues led the British military to dismiss many officials there when they administered the facility following the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

(Source: AFP)

The U.S. military is demanding to know what happened to $1.9 million worth of computers purchased by American taxpayers, and intended for Iraqi schoolchildren, that have instead been auctioned off by Iraqi officials for less than $50,000.

Reports from Associated Press and al Jazeera say the shipment of computers intended for schoolchildren in the central Babil province was auctioned by a senior Iraqi official at the southern port of Umm Qasr on Aug. 16 for $45,700 — before the computers could be sent to the province.

“United States Division-South Commander Maj. Gen. Vincent Brooks called for an immediate investigation into the actions of the Umm Qasr official to determine why computers destined for children to facilitate their education were approved for auction,” said an American Milatary statement.

The port director, Talib Bayesh, told The Associated Press that the equipment had been sitting in the port for more than 90 days and that, according to the law, any items sitting in the port for more than three months without being claimed could be confiscated by the port and sold at public auction.

Transparency International’s 2009 corruption perceptions index ranked Iraq as one of the world’s most corrupt nations – 176th out of 180 countries.

(Sources: Associated Press, al Jazeera)

Debate is raging in Iran regarding the issue of claiming reparations from Iraq in relation to the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

Earlier this month, a member of the Majlis (the Iranian parliament), Eivaz Heidarpour, who is also a member of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said that Iran could claim compensation from Iraq amounting to $1 trillion.

But this week a senior member of Iran’s Islamic Consultative Assembly has said that the time for addressing the issue of reparations relating to the Iraq-Iran war is over.

Seid Kazem Delkhosh told AKnews that the time has passed for discussion about the eight years of war between Iraq and Iran; the subject should have been discussed and finalised long ago.

Ali Alaq, the chief secretary of the Iraqi council of ministers told the Arabic Al-Sabah daily on Tuesday that if the Iranian authorities demanded compensation from the Iraqis for war damages, “which is an illogical request”, Iraq could also appeal for compensation from Iran.

He underlined that the Iraqi government needs to review its foreign policy in order to define a policy for compensation claims for damages the country incurred, is suffering, or may endure in the future.

This revision may help to get back a portion of the compensation due and to reimburse some of the debts Iraq has accumulated, “but this is feasible only when the political parties in Iraq all cooperate,” Alaq continued.

Delkhosh said that Iran and Iraq, as two Muslim counties with Sunni and Shia populations are sympathetic to each other and it was the opponents of the two nations who inflicted the war on them as neither the Iraqis nor the Iranians supported it.

Iraq invaded Iran on 22 September 1980, triggering a bitter eight-year war which destabilized the region and devastated both countries.

A territorial dispute over the Shatt al-Arab, the waterway which forms the boundary between the two countries led to the outbreak of the war.

Iraq has so far paid off $30.1 billion of its $52.4 billion reparations debt to Kuwait, relating to its invasion of the country in 1991.

(Source: Tehran Times, AKnews, UN Compensation Commission)

(Photo: the disputed Shatt al-Arab waterway)

National Overview

The total number of hostile incidents reported nationally increased for the third week in a row, seeing a significant rise in the number of recorded incidents in Baghdad and slight rises in the north and north central regions. The west and south east regions remained the same, in terms of numbers of incidents, with the south central region decreasing slightly.

The holy month of Ramadan, now in to its second week and could be responsible for the increase in activity across parts of the country as it is generally agreed that Ramadan is thought to offer an excellent opportunity for insurgents to exploit due to the potentially lax security across the country.

The last US combat brigade pulled out of Iraq at dawn on 19 Aug, a key milestone in the withdrawal of American forces more than seven years in Iraq. At this point the US mission in Iraq was re-christened “Operation New Dawn”, from “Operation Iraqi Freedom”. This pullout coincided with the arrival of James Jeffrey, the new US ambassador to Iraq; his arrival comes during a political deadlock in Iraq.

Iraqi politics is still in turmoil with no real end in sight. American and Iraqi officials have publicly said that the reason an Iraqi government has not been formed is due to Iranian interference. There are a number of Shiite politicians who are close to Tehran and, for a range of reasons, may take their orders from there. There are not enough of these politicians to create a government, but there are enough to block a government from being established. This is of great importance to the security of Iraq; no new government being formed after elections in March and at a time, in the middle of the month of Ramadan, when insurgent attacks have been known to peak in the past is causing much instability.

On 15, 16 and 22 Aug the Basra Contingency Operating Base was targeted by Indirect Fire; of interest is the improving accuracy of the rounds landing in the area, suggesting that the insurgent teams carrying out the attack are becoming more effective. The Indirect Fire attack that took place in the early morning of the 22 Aug, when three 107mm rounds landed with in the Basra Contingency Operating Base, resulted in the death of one U.S. soldier. No further details are known at this time, but this is the first U.S. death since the 4th Stryker Brigade, 2nd Infantry Division crossed the border in to Kuwait ahead of the planned declaration of an end to US combat operations in Iraq by the August 31 deadline.

The reliability of an 18 Aug 10 report by Asharq al-Awsat stating that a prominent Iraqi Shiite militant leader has returned to Iraq from his refuge in Iran has been confirmed. Ismail al-Lami, commonly known as Abu Deraa, has been high up on the U.S. military’s targeting list since 2004, when he and his aides in Muqtada al Sadr’s Shiite Mehdi Army spent the most violent years of the war carrying out a series of attacks against Iraqi Sunnis under Iranian guidance.

US Forces remain the primary target of insurgents with Private Security Companies an acceptable alternative even though Iraqi Security Forces generally present a much easier target than US Forces. Insurgents will continue to attack US Forces and Private Security Companies with Improvised Explosive Devices and Explosively Formed Projectiles on the main routes around the. The operational tempo stepped up in July and looks as though this will continue through August.

Baghdad

Officially reported incidents in Baghdad have increased again for the third week in succession to 51 incidents compared to 41 last week. This is now the highest level of incidents in the capital since 06 – 12 Jun 10 and a worry to the Iraqi Security Forces.

The International Zone was targeted on only one occasion this month and this was classed as an ineffective Indirect Fire attack. The majority of attacks this week took the form of an Improvised Explosive Devices with 29 out of the 51 incidents being of this nature. It was also reported that on 21 Aug the Director General of the Ministry of Interior was killed in Small Arms Fire attack in the Mansour area of the city.

Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Devices have also been used on a regular basis with 11 being reported resulting in a number of civilians being successfully targeted – a number of deaths have been reported in open sources, but it is unclear whether this is as a result of the Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Device attacks.

With the U.S. drawing down its forces and the Iraqi government talks in limbo, Iran appears to be telegraphing to the U.S. that it has retained some critical levers over the years to turn the heat up in Iraq at a time when the U.S. lacks the force strength of the 2007 surge. By insisting on a strong Sunni presence in the Iraqi government and proceeding with its withdrawal plans, the U.S. is taking a gamble that Iran, whose primary interest is to consolidate Shiite influence in Iraq, will impose limits on itself to contain ethno-sectarian fissures and prevent an outbreak of violence so large that it would risk unraveling the political gains Iran has made thus far.

The timing for the return of the Shiite militant leader, Abu Deraa, to Iraq was likely carefully deliberated by Iran with the withdrawal of U.S. combatant forces from the country during the last week when the remnants of the 2nd Infantry Division left Iraq two weeks before their scheduled departure. However, the Iraqi government remains in complete flux, with Iranian-backed political forces blocking an attempt by the U.S. ensuring a prominent place for Iraq’s Sunnis in the ruling coalition and this issue is unlikely to be resolved in the near term. The U.S. will have 50,000 troops in country to maintain a blocking force against Iran through at least 2011 to influence its negotiations with Iran over Iraq.

Basra

In comparison to the other regions in Iraq, it has been a relatively quiet week this week in terms of the number of incidents in the south east region.

This could potentially reflect the start of the second week of Ramadan in this area. The reports of another Explosively Formed Projectile attack in the north of Basra city and a further Indirect Fire attack against the Basra Contingency Operating Base resulting in the death of a U.S. soldier, have been the main incidents this week.

The general atmospherics in Basra are most likely at the lowest for about 18 months. The lack of constant electricity (even regular electricity), the lack of clean water, inflation and the rise in food prices during Ramadan are causing substantial problems. The importance of the religious ceremonies of Ramadan may provoke a heightened level of attacks from insurgent groupings in Iraq who are keen to exploit the strict observance of rituals such as fasting, when Iraqis’ defenses are low. However, there is no substantial data to support or deny this; although ‘spectacular’ attacks such as large scale bombings targeting religious gatherings can be common during this time, particularly in religious cities such as Karbala. These points along with the latest attack carried out on 07 Aug 10 has affected the local populations belief about their security in the City and the role the Iraqi Security Forces are playing in this – especially in light of the U.S. draw down. Public anger is likely to be directed against provincial and national level politicians and their failure to form a government.

There have been further heightened threats issued during this reporting period including heightened threat on Main Supply Routes from Improvised Explosive Devices.

Dr. Ali al-Obaidi, who has been in charge of Iraq’s Baiji refinery since 2007, has reportedly resigned from his position, having successfully slashed the level of theft from the facility. He had initially been installed as part of a joint U.S.-Iraqi corruption crisis team.

According to Iraq Oil Report, the man credited with reducing theft from an estimated 70% of output to approximately 5% resigned on Saturday, following death threats and voluntary exile in Jordan, from which he ran the operation by telephone.

With the value of criminal activity at the plant estimated at between $1 billion and $2 billion annually, al-Obiadi had made some powerful enemies.

He has been replaced temporarily by Abdul Ghafour, acting director general of the North Refineries Company.

(Sources: Iraq Oil Report, Fox News)

By Jody Ray Bennett for ISN Security Watch

In hopes of making good on a campaign promise just months before the November elections, President Barack Obama successfully oversaw the last of combat troops depart from Iraq just a few weeks shy of the 31 August deadline. While 50,000 soldiers will remain in Iraq as ‘advisors,’ private security contractors will likely more than double in the country to provide personnel and convoy protection and train Iraqi police and other security forces.

A 12 July report issued by the Commission on Wartime Contracting (COWC) in Iraq and Afghanistan found that the presence of private military contractors in Iraq- companies like Blackwater/Xe, Triple Canopy and Dyncorp – will increase in number as US military forces complete their exit from Iraq by 31 December 2011.

Governance of the Iraqi occupation has slowly been transitioning from Pentagon to State Department control, and in a statement by commission chairmen, “Assuming no change in [the Department of State] mission, the department’s only realistic option for dealing with the U.S. military’s exit is to make much heavier use of contractors,” concluding that, “the department would need to more than double [the contractor] force to 6,000 to 7,000 people to handle its needs in the future.” That figure is compared to the current “2,700 private security personnel in Iraq to augment its own diplomatic security force.”

A more expensive footprint

Indeed, without private contractors, the Department of State finds itself in something of a conundrum.Defense News aptly noted that the State Department “appears to have little choice [as] it lacks its own force of personnel to fly helicopters, disarm bombs or provide dozens of other services that military personnel now provide [especially when] the military is scheduled to reduce its Iraq footprint to 50,000 troops in August and be out of that country by the end of next year.”

And now that this has already happened – and ahead of schedule – the demand for private military and security personnel is already ramping up as troops pull out.

“Given the broad military mission the U.S. has, coupled with the lack of a draft, there is no doubt we actually need more, not less, private military contractors. The recent news about the contractor force that will be left in Iraq is a perfect example of how we seem to be substituting private military contractors for our regular military. We’re not really leaving Iraq – we’re changing our official presence there,” Fouad Pervez, PhD student in International Relations at Georgetown University and contributor to Foreign Policy in Focus, told ISN Security Watch.

By its own standards, the COWC report made further conclusions after making concessions concerning the development of the Iraqi government and its ability to transform the country into a stable, functioning state:

“Unless and until the Iraqi government develops suitable capabilities for support, increased contracting by [the Department of State] would entail great increases in expenditures, challenges of executing and overseeing contracts, and possibilities for unneeded and wasteful spending. In addition, inadequately staffed and resourced oversight could multiply opportunities for contractor mistakes or misconduct that might alienate Iraqi opinion and undermine U.S. policy objectives.”

Just three days after the Commission’s report, the Office of General Inspector in the Iraqi Ministry of Planning and Development Cooperationblacklisted 146 companies and contractors for submitting to it falsified documents for operation.

Layered responsibility

In June 2010, vehement critic of the private military and security industry, Jeremy Scahill reported that since the beginning of Obama’s presidency, “there has been a 23% increase in the number of ‘Private Security Contractors’ working for the Department of Defense in Iraq in the second quarter of 2009 and a 29% increase in Afghanistan,” citing statistics provided by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics.

In a press release, the COWC stated that: “Fragmentary data – the best the government has – suggest that at least a third of the roughly 200,000 contractor employees in Iraq and Afghanistan work for subcontractors. Because the federal government has no direct contractual relationship with subcontractors, it has limited visibility into who they are and what they are doing. Prime contractors are legally responsible for managing subcontractors, but the primes’ internal controls and the effectiveness of federal oversight have often been inadequate.”

And this will likely affect public opinion of the American presence in Iraq.

“The overall problem [has to do with] PMCs and how [they] affect foreign policy. The bigger problem isn’t [companies like] Blackwater, it’s the mission. PMCs give political leaders an easy out because they are rarely held accountable for their deaths (as compared with U.S. military deaths). This allows a distortion of public opinion on conflict. If the public doesn’t see the face of war (which is precisely what happens when you privatize the conflict, since the press doesn’t really cover PMCs), war can continue when it would have been seriously challenged and possibly halted before due to public pressure,” Pervez said.

Iraq has intensified efforts to resolve its debt problems with neighboring Kuwait, in order to end the international restrictions imposed on the country following the invasion of Kuwait two decades ago, said Iraq’s deputy foreign minister.

Iraq was placed under United Nations’ Chapter 7 status in 1991 after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait.

Speaking to AKnews, Labid Abawi said, “Iraq is committed to the U.N. Security Council’s resolutions and works to close this dossier (of debts) as soon as possible.”

Iraq has paid off $30.1 billion so far but needs to pay another $22.3 billion.

The Chapter 7 terms have restricted Iraq efforts to equip the army to protect its borders and do not allow it to import certain chemicals and other items.

Kuwait has repeatedly refused to end Iraq’s Chapter 7 status saying Iraq first needs to pay off its debts fully, settle its territorial disputes with Kuwait and provide clear answers as to the fate of the Kuwaitis who went missing during the war.

(Source: AKnews, UN Compensation Commission)

(Photo: Kuwaiti oil fires, Desert Storm, 1991)

MAG (pronounced “Mag”) – Mines Advisory Group – is a neutral and impartial humanitarian organisation that clears the remnants of conflict for the benefit of communities worldwide.

Summary of outputs:

• MAG teams released 632,966 m2 of land through a combination of electronic, hand mechanical, MDD clearance and area reduction as well as minefield cancellation;
• MAG teams removed and destroyed 956 hazardous items;
• CWD response teams completed 155 tasks to safely remove and destroy 6,609 Conventional Weapons (CW);
• MAG and national partner NGO’s CL teams conducted 74 Mine Risk Education (MRE) sessions targeting 788 beneficiaries and 1 Small Arms and Light Weapons Risk Education (SALWRE) session targeting 12 primary school students

In July, MAG Iraq Mine Action Teams (MAT) completed clearance operations in 10 prioritized clearance tasks in Dohuk, Sulimaniyah and Kirkuk governorates directly benefiting more than 4,781 individuals and supporting village rehabilitation, agricultural and socio-economic development in the region.

Coordination meetings were held with both regional Mine Action authorities, the Iraqi Kurdistan Mine Action Agency (IKMAA) and the General Directorate of Mine Affairs (GDMA). Activities, plans and priorities were the main points of the meetings agenda. Arrangements for handing over of the cleared lands to the local communities were also discussed during the meetings.

16 MATs deploying from the programme’s 3 operations bases in Sulimaniyah, Chamchamal and Dohuk continued clearance operations in 9 clearance tasks that, when completed, will support agricultural and socio-economic development and conflict recovery. MATs were deployed to 6 prioritized clearance sites in Dohuk, Sulimaniyah and Kirkuk. Clearance sites were prioritized through the community assessment survey conducted by MAG Community Liaison (CL) teams. MATs identified 1 new area of contaminated land through demarcation in Khanaqin sub-district of Diyala governorate.

11 Community Liaison (CL) teams continued to deploy on daily basis to deliver MRE and SALW RE, and conduct training of trainers for community leaders and teachers, primary school follow up visits, community assessment surveys, leaflet distribution, and identifying and reporting unguarded stockpiles of CW. Teams visited 129 different villages in Kirkuk, Sulimaniyah, Diyala, Dohuk and Ninewa (Mosul) governorates. CL teams continued to liaise with land owners and local authorities to secure their approval for clearance activities.

During the annual Ministry of Education (MoE) teachers training, CL staff in Dohuk conducted capacity building training sessions in MRE delivery to 306 primary school teachers. Staff in Sulimaniyah conducted training sessions to 1,088 primary school teachers and 8 religious leaders. 58 primary school teachers were trained in MRE delivery in Diyala governorate. MAG has been working in partnership with MoE for more than 10 years conducting trainings in MRE delivery for the newly graduated primary school teachers.

Local partner NGOs (Al Ghad) and (Work for Peace) CL staff were trained by MAG Iraq CL staff in the delivery of capacity building training sessions. Local partner NGOs participated in the annual teachers training, conducting capacity building training sessions to 152 primary school teachers in Kirkuk governorate and 102 primary school teachers in Diyala governorate.

Local partner NGOs teams continued to deliver MRE to at risk communities in Diyala and Kirkuk governorates directly benefiting 135 individuals.  Teams conducted monitoring follow up visits to the religious leaders trained in April, May and June identifying further training needs and distributing different MRE materials.

MAG’s Conventional Weapons Destruction (CWD) teams deployed to 68 different villages completing 155 emergency tasks to safely remove and destroy 6,609 CW. Highlights included the removal and safe destruction of 1,412 hazardous items in Halabja area of Sulimaniyah and the safe removal and destruction of 4 CW stockpiles of 203 hazardous items in Atrush area of Dohuk. Items were posing significant threat to the local communities and picnickers visiting the area.

MAG’s 2 mechanical teams and 2 manual support teams worked in 6 prioritized minefields in Sulimaniyah and Kirkuk governorates to support MATs in achieving operational efficiency. This month, mechanical and support teams deployed 9 different mechanical assets and attachments.

Mine Detection Dogs (MDD) and manual support teams continued their activities in 4 prioritized minefields in Sulimaniyah and Kirkuk governorate undertaking clearance operations in low and medium risk areas of the minefields supporting MATs in achieving operations’ efficiency and quality.

The programmes’ Training, Monitoring and Evaluation unit (TMEU) conducted a 4 day refresher training for supervisory staff in Dohuk on the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) devices.

MAG would like to express its gratitude to the following current donors to the Iraq programme:

• Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement, US Department of State
• German Government
• The US Army Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate
• Irish Aid
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of the Netherlands
• Stichting Vluchteling
• Government of Belgium
• Marshall Legacy Institute
• SIDA (Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency)

A survey of more than 300 senior executives by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) found that foreign investors are still put off by violence in Iraq, but most companies believe the security situation will improve, despite the withdrawal of international troops.

The EIU surveyed 367 senior executives from 52 countries about their perceptions of investment in Iraq. They work for 80 companies currently investing in Iraq and 32 companies that are considering it.

Seven years after the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, 64 percent thought it was still too dangerous to do business in Iraq, but 55 percent said they believed the security situation for foreign executives and employees would improve over the next two years.

According to the EIU survey, which will be published next month, violence was the biggest business risk for 67 percent of respondents, followed by corruption (44 percent) and the lack of infrastructure (35 percent).

Iraq’s oil and gas reserves were the most attractive aspect of the country for investors, but after this, 43 percent said construction and real estate was the most promising non-hydrocarbon sector, followed by consumer goods (23 percent) and healthcare and pharmaceuticals (18 percent).

(Source: AFP)

Xe Services, the private security company formerly known as Blackwater Worldwide, has reached an agreement with the State Department for the company to pay $42 million in fines for hundreds of violations of United States export control regulations, according to a report in the New York Times.

But by paying fines rather than facing criminal charges, Blackwater will be able to continue to obtain government contracts. The company lost its largest contract last year to provide diplomatic security for United States Embassy personnel in Baghdad, where the Iraqi government was incensed by killings of Iraqis in one highly publicised incident.

The $42m fine relates to an array of charges, including that the company shipped weapons and military equipment for use by its personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan in violation of export controls, and in some cases sought to hide its actions, according to the government. In one incident, Blackwater shipped weapons to Iraq hidden inside containers of dog food.

The New  York Times reports that a federal investigation into the company’s weapons shipments to Iraq led to guilty pleas on criminal charges by two former Blackwater employees who are believed to have cooperated with a broader federal inquiry.

The fine does not resolve other legal issues facing the company, including a federal investigation into evidence that Blackwater officials sought to bribe Iraqi government officials.

(Source: New York Times)