By Tariq Abdell, Iraq’s political risk analyst, Founder & CEO of  Mesopotamia Insight.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

 The recent upsurge in violence across Iraq ( sticky bombs, car bombs, roadside bombs, targeted  assassinations, suicide bombers, prison breaks, etc…) underscores, irrefutably, the ubiquitous vulnerabilities of Iraq’s national security forces that is exacerbated by a host of daunting and intricate constraints: politicized security apparatus, lingering ethno-sectarian loyalties,  political sectarianism, and the region’s geopolitical tensions, namely, Saudi Arabia and Iran’s regional ambitions.

In the absence, thus far, of a US-Iraq postwar strategic partnership, the impending complete withdrawal of the U.S. combat troops from Iraq by the end of 2011  and the protracted political horse-trading over the security posts (defense, interior, and national security) will,  ultimately, undermine Iraqi Security Forces’ operational capabilities (air sovereignty and border security, for instance) and, subsequently,  jeopardizing Iraq’s national security. Moreover, given the high levels of interoperability of the two militaries, the foreseeable security vacuum could pose a serious threat to Iraq’s national security, namely:

• Reemergence of the quasi-defeated extremist groups, namely, AQI, Jaysh al-Islami, the Promised Day Brigade, Kata’ib Hizbollah, and Asaeb Ahl al-Haq.
• Rekindling of sectarian violence and lawlessness that engulfed Iraq before (05-07).
• Precipitating the war between Baghdad and Erbil over the disputed oil-rich Kirkuk.
• Disruption of Iraq’s oil production and supply and, subsequently, Iraq’s petrodollars.
• Invigorating Iran’s centuries-old expansionist and religious ambitions in Iraq – turning Iraq into a satellite Shiite theocracy.

Moreover, the cumulative effects of the ruling class’ ineptitude and schism are protracting decades of erroneous policies and, subsequently, the people’s tribulations. Thus, impelling the majority of the Iraqi people to distrust the legitimacy of their government and the effectiveness of its institutions as evidenced by the latest protests, which accentuated the Iraqi people frustration with their elected officials’ ineptitude and their epic failure to curb corruption and end ethno-sectarian quota-sharing system.

The deep-seated political sectarianism and its inherent symptoms, namely, impoverished and disenfranchised population, lack of basic services, higher unemployment, severely languished infrastructure, ineffectual institutions, and rampant corruption are most likely to linger for years to come if the political class continue to pursue self-serving and sectarian-based agendas and political marginalization.

Thus, given the aforementioned challenges, the ruling class (executive and legislative branches) ought to outline clearly its postwar policy objectives and priorities, in accordance with the country’s laws and strategic interests, and heed to the aspirations of its people, regardless of their political and religious believes.

Drawing on past experiences (Eastern European Countries, for instance), Iraqi government ought to craft a comprehensive strategy encompassing socio-economic development, a genuine national reconciliation, and a modern security architecture as an imperative prerequisite for attaining  political stability and, subsequently, building a modern and prosperous Iraq.

Conversely, in the absence of a strategic foresight and a strong leadership capable of implementing the aforementioned  strategy, Iraq may revert to its darkest years of lawlessness, religious extremism, political instability, foreign interventions,  and ethno-sectarian strife. Simply put, Lebanization of Iraq’s nascent democracy.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The author, Tariq Abdell, is an Iraq’s political risk analyst, and Founder & CEO of Mesopotamia Insight

He can be contacted at: atariqx@gmail.com

or

Followed on twitter: Mesopotamia_iq

By Tariq Abdell, Iraq’s political risk analyst, Founder & CEO of  Mesopotamia Insight.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Mr  Gates, U.S. Defense Secretary, recent visit to Iraq underlines Washington’s  uneasiness and frustration with Baghdad’s indecisiveness and lack of  strategic foresight in regards to the future of U.S.-Iraq postwar strategic partnership, namely, the future of U.S.-Iraq military cooperation.

Given the sacrifices endured by both countries, loss of lives and treasure, U.S. and Iraqi governments, two sovereign nations, ought to craft a clear and comprehensive postwar strategy that is capable of creating the conditions for a sustainable and successful partnership. However, before undertaking a such colossal and sensitive task, Washington and Baghdad ought to define the objectives of a such partnership (attainable and realistic), stakeholders’ roles and responsibilities, and the needed resources, e.g.,  training and equipping Iraqi Security Forces.

Nonetheless,  given the high levels of interoperability of the two militaries, the complete withdrawals of U.S. troops, including combat advisors, will undermine Iraqi Security Forces’ capabilities and, subsequently, Iraq’s national security, namely, air sovereignty and border security. Moreover, the ensuing security vacuum entails great risks and dire consequences:

• Emboldening the quasi-dormant Sunni and Shiite extremist groups ( AQI, Ba’atists, Jaysh al-Islami, the Promised Day Brigade, Kata’ib Hizbollah, Jaysh al-Mehdi, etc…).
• Precipitating the war between Baghdad and Kurdistan over oil-rich Kirkuk, given the ongoing territorial tensions between the Arabs, Turkmen, and Kurds.
• Disrupting Iraq’s oil production and export and, subsequently, Iraq’s revenues – petrodollars.
• Turning Iraq into a prime battleground for proxy wars, chiefly Saudi Vs. Iran.
• Invigorating Iran’s centuries-old expansionist and religious ambitions in Iraq – turning Iraq into a satellite Shiite Islamic theocracy.

  Case in point: the nomination of Mr. Hassan Danaifar, a Baghdad native and Qods Force (IRGC special operations unit) veteran commander, as Iran Ambassador to Iraq underscores Iran’s vested interest in building and  strengthening its military, political and religious influence in Iraq and, consequently, expanding Iran’s sphere of influence in the region beyond its traditional allies Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Thus, to avoid the aforesaid  grim scenario, the Iraqi government (executive and legislative bodies) ought to outline clearly its postwar policy objectives and priorities, in accordance with the country’ strategic interests. Nonetheless, the protracted political horse-trading over the security posts (defense, interior, and national security) is hindering communication channels between U.S. officials and their Iraqi counterparts and, most importantly, jeopardizing Iraq’s hard-earned security gains. Furthermore, given the recent upsurge in violence, the outcomes of  such injudicious decisions could easily reignite Iraq’s ethno-sectarian violence.

Drawing on past experiences, namely, Germany, South Korea, and Japan, the scheduled complete withdrawal of the U.S. combat troops from Iraq, by December 2011, presents a unique opportunity to lay the foundation for a strong and sound postwar strategic partnership, that is Susceptible to preserve and foster Iraq’s nascent democracy and, most importantly, prevent Iraq from reverting to a military dictatorship,  religious tyranny, or ,worst, falling prey to Iran’s Mullacracy suicidal ambitions.

Irrefutably, the success of a such momentous endeavor is contingent upon the genuine commitment and the political will of both Washington and Baghdad. Simply put, “…The one who adapts his policy to the times prospers, and likewise that the one whose policy clashes with the demands of the times does not…”  Niccolo Machiavelli.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The author, Tariq Abdell, is an Iraq’s political risk analyst, and Founder & CEO of Mesopotamia Insight

He can be contacted at: atariq@mesopotamiainsight.com
or
Followed on twitter: mesopotamia_iq

By Tariq Abdell, Iraq’s political risk analyst, and Founder & CEO of Mesopotamia Insight.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

In light of ongoing socio-political changes in MENA region, Iraq’s massive protests, from Zakho to al-Faw, accentuate the political astuteness and the frustration of the Iraqi people with their elected officials. Disenfranchised Shiites, Sunnis, Kurdish, Arabs, and Christians are all demanding the same: an end to ethno-sectarian quota-sharing system, corruption, and, most importantly, universal access to basic services such as potable water, electricity, housing, education, healthcare, and jobs.

Nonetheless, given the legitimacy and urgency of the protestors’ demands, the government nebulous responses (halving of some officials’ salaries, 100-day ultimatum to incumbent ministers, boosting food ration with extra cash, etc…) are mere cosmetic measures to allay people’s frustration and anger. Unarguably, the cumulative effects, hitherto, of the elected officials’ ineptitude and schism are protracting decades of erroneous policies and, subsequently, the people’s tribulations. Impelling the majority of the Iraqi people to question the legitimacy of their government and the effectiveness of its institutions, a dangerous threshold that could hastily throw the country back into its darkest years of sectarian violence and lawlessness.

Notwithstanding Iraq’s colossal energy resources, billions of oil and natural gas reserves, Iraq fragile democracy and ineffectual institutions, in a restive region, are the breeding ground for societal and political upheavals and foreign interventions. In fact, Iraq’s daunting and intricate challenges are both internal and regional:

Internal challenges:

• Lack of basic services, e.g., six million people with no access to clean water -UNICEF.
• 20 to 25 percent of Iraqis still live below the country’s poverty line.
• Unemployment rates hover around %18, notably among military-age male population.
• Higher illiteracy rates, exacerbated with massive brain drain, are eroding Iraq’s skilled and professionally literate workforce.
• Rampant corruption and nepotism undermine the efficiency of the State institutions.
• Inequitable distribution and mismanagement of oil’s revenues – no hydrocarbon law.
• Parliament still faces a backlog of sensitive issues.

Regional challenges:

• Given the region new geopolitical developments, heightened tensions between Iran and Saudi, Iraq could easily turn into a sectarian proxy war battleground – Shiite Vs. Sunnis.
• The fallouts of Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West could easily spillover to Iraq’s already contentious politics and further undermining its stability.
• Given Kirkuk’s enormous oil reserves and ethnic diversity (Arabs, Kurds, and Turkmen), it’s protracted dispute is a timed bomb, which could expeditiously reignite Iraq’s civil war.
• Turkey’s recurrent incursion into Northern Iraq in the pursuit of the Kurdish workers party (PKK) elements and PKK assiduous attacks on the northern oil pipelines are a major threat to the country’s resources and sovereignty.
• Given the hostile intentions of some neighboring counties, the U.S. planned troops withdrawal, by the end of the year, could further jeopardise Iraq’s defense capabilities.

Thus, given the enormity and complexity of the aforementioned challenges, Iraq only viable mean to fend off political instability and chaos is to renounce its sectarian-based policies and espouse an inclusive and genuine democratic system that heads to the people aspirations and protects their rights (UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights). Furthermore, both the government and opposition ought to consolidate their efforts to bolster accountability, eradicate corruption and, subsequently, strengthen the State institutions, an essential prerequisite for a rapid socio-economic recovery. To this end, the new government’s long-term vision should entail an action plan that reflects the country strategic and pressing priorities, namely:

• Genuine national reconciliation to overcome sectarian and political schism and violence.
• Overhauling of State institutions to rein in corruption and enhance efficiency.
• Merit-based appointments to promote efficiency and accountability.
• Providing access to basic services (e.g., potable water, electricity, running sewer, etc)
• Equitable distribution of oil revenues.
• Investing in human capital through education and training.
• Job creation to fend off societal and political unrest (Organized crime, for instance).
• Advancing the principles of human rights and rule of law.
• Diversifying and reviving of Iraq’ strategic industries to curb its dependence on a single commodity – fossil fuel.

Conversely, in the absence of a comprehensive and inclusive socio-economic development strategy, aiming at strengthening State institutions, eradicating corruption, and addressing the aspirations of the Iraqi people, regardless of their political and religious believes, Iraq may revert to its darkest years of sectarian violence and lawlessness (05-07), giving regional players (Iran, Saudi, Turkey, Syria) a free hand in Iraq’s affairs – exploiting Iraq’s vulnerabilities (Shiite-Sunni strife, for instance)- to further their national interests and, subsequently, turning Iraq into a prime battleground for proxy wars, or worse, a pariah State. Simply put, “a house divided against itself cannot stand” Abraham Lincoln.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The author, Tariq Abdell, Iraq’s political risk analyst, and Founder & CEO of Mesopotamia Insight

He can be contacted at: atariq2000@hotmail.com

or

Followed on twitter: http://www.twitter.com/atariqx

By Tariq Abdell, Iraq’s political risk analyst,  and Founder & CEO of  Mesopotamia Insight.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

 As Iraq-business news celebrates its one year anniversary, MENA region is witnessing a fundamental political upheavals and changes,  costing Mubarak of Egypt and Ben Ali of Tunisia their presidencies, as result of decades of unpopular and undemocratic policies and, most importantly,  for injudiciously disenfranchising  a crucial segment of their societies: their younger constituents.

  Unarguably, Iraq is undergoing major socio- economic changes, among them, the formation of a new and inclusive government, following months of political horse-trading, improved security conditions due to a strong and nonsectarian Army, and surge of foreign companies and investors’ interest in Iraq’s potentials. However, Iraq’s severely languished infrastructure,  lack of basic services, impoverished and disgruntle  population  – decades of wars and despair-  could easily jeopardize its hard-earned achievements.

 According to the Iraqi Institute for economic reforms, Iraq’s agricultural output had fallen from 8% to 3.5%, industrial output  from 7% to 1.5%,  estimated poverty rate  of almost 23%, unemployment still hover above 18%,  the appropriation of credit to the economy  as % of GDP is 3.37 % in 2008,  current power output at 6,5000 megawatts  is less than half of Iraq’s needs, national debt amounts to $33 billion.

 Given the aforementioned challenges, it’s an absolute imperative for the Iraqi government to devise a comprehensive and inclusive post-conflict reconstruction strategy, taking into account the aspirations of its people and current  budget constraints, which estimates overall expenditure at $81.86 billion and income at $68.56 billion, leaving a shortfall of $13.3 billion.  Drawing on past experiences (BRIC countries, for instance) and the support of the international agencies (IMF and WB, for instance), Such a strategy ought to:

• Create a conducive and transparent business environment, compatible with Iraq’s new constitution,  that is legally and politically permissive (adoption of a new investment law, for instance),  and susceptible to attract foreign capital, foster Iraq’s political capital, and reinvigorate the efficiency of its institutions .  According to the world bank, Iraq ranks 166 on the ease of doing business -next to Afghanistan.
• Institute an independent and inclusive  Petroleum Council — reflecting  the geographic distribution of Iraq’s energy resources — that is responsible for formulating oil strategies (hydrocarbon law, for instance), deflecting the politicization of the oil sector, enforcing transparency and accountability as bulwarks against corruption , and robust enough to reign in SOC, NOC, and IOCs.
• Set a mechanism that will allow for an equitable distribution of the oil revenues and avoid the resource-rich nations’ deleterious disease, the resource war. Historically, the bulk of Iraq’s oil revenues are distributed along ethno-sectarian, political, and tribal allegiances, as opposed to inclusive and growth-oriented economic policies.
• Foster strategic partnership with the private sector and academia. For instance,  GOI could seek foreign companies’ expertise to help revamp its oil sector by introducing technological know-how, the industry best practices, and foster a professionally literate workforce. With such perspicacious initiative, Iraqi government will definitely enhance its oil sector efficiency, boost production, and, eventually, spur economic recovery.
• Revive Iraq’s strategic industries(Petrochemicals, for instance) to curtail its dependence on a single commodity, fossil fuel, and, consequently,  avoiding its hasty depletion. Furthermore, given Iraq’s acute electricity and water crisis, direct solar energy is by far the most abundant renewable energy source in Iraq which can be used for power generation for domestic and international markets , and seawater desalination to help alleviate southern regions water shortage.

 Conversely, in the absence of a concerted and inclusive national development strategy that reflects the needs of the Iraqi people (e.g.,  more jobs, better wages,  universal access to basic services, health care, and education) and help resuscitate the country’s weakened economy, Iraq may risk reverting to its years of lawlessness, sectarianism,  and chaos, which is far worse than Egypt and Tunisia combined. Irrefutably, “A nation’ s strength ultimately consists in what it can do on its own, and not in what it can borrow from others.” Indira Gandhi

 The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The author, Tariq Abdell, is an Iraq’s political risk analyst, and Founder & CEO of Mesopotamia Insight

He can be contacted at: atariq2000@hotmail.com

or

Followed on twitter: http://www.twitter.com/atariqx

By Tariq Abdell, Iraq’s political risk analyst, and Founder & CEO, Mesopotamia Insight

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

 Iraq’s impending multi-billion dollar mega-reconstruction projects (housing, roads, hospitals, bridges, airports, schools, dams, etc…) and its colossal and untapped natural resources – billions of proven oil and gas reserves- are irrefutably the modern day ‘s El Dorado, affording risk-taking  investors a unique and unparallelled opportunity to thrive and prosper.

 Nonetheless, venturing into Iraq’s quagmire (fragile democracy, geopolitical tensions, severely languished infrastructure, and impoverished population) without strategic foresight and versatility entails grave risk and dire consequences far beyond repair: assets depletion, workforce distress, capital exposure and, ultimately, investments annihilation.

 Furthermore, in the absence of socio-economic data repositories, as result of decades of isolation, to support strategic foresight analysis and corporate sustainability strategies, international investors’ only cogent alternative is to device a comprehensive strategy incorporating constructive engagements, strategic partnerships, and the needed political capital as viable mean to foster and strengthen their corporate sustainability and, ultimately, competitiveness.

 Given Iraq’s decades of wars, sanctions, and economic hardship, the suggested strategy will entail four interconnected points:

Constructive engagements

 Understanding local communities’ value systems, cultural nuances, and earning their trust is an absolute imperative for international investors’ survival and competitiveness. To this end, international investors need to engage all the stakeholders in their areas of operation (e.g., tribal and religious leaders, NGOs, media, members of the provincial government, etc…) via a participatory and inclusive approach to foster mutual understanding, respect and, most importantly, common interest.

Strategic partnerships

  With the already established relationships, that is corroborated with strategic insights, international investors ought to capitalize on the achievements of the previous phase, by strengthening and solidifying those relationships perceived to be promising, fruitful, and prone to grow into sustainable strategic partnerships.

 Corporate social responsibility

 Given the socio-economic dynamics of their areas of operation, International investors must adopt an acculturated corporate social responsibility – not charity- to attain broad and immediate impact. To this end, international investors, in concert with local partners, ought to leverage their strategic partnerships to deliver their envisioned corporate social responsibility strategies. For instance, international investors need to work closely with local NGOs and institutions (Basrah University, for instance) to solve a communal problem or foster a fruitful cooperation.

 Political capital                 

  To ensure their businesses survival and success in an environment replete with uncertainty, international investors ought to foster their political capital that commensurate with their operational efficiency by leveraging their strategic partnerships and the achievements of their constructive engagements.

 Case in point:

 Given Basrah’s high unemployment rates – 70%- and its colossal oil reserves, IOCs could play a crucial role in the local economy by introducing the critically needed technical know-how and, thus, help develop local workforce literacy through strategic partnership with local institutions such as Basrah University – suitable platforms for knowledge sharing and dissemination. Unarguably, such perspicacious initiatives would help alleviate Basrah unemployment, spur economic recovery, strengthen IOCs’ political capital, and, ultimately, their corporate sustainability.

 Drawing on past experiences (Eastern bloc, for instance), transitioning from years of planned economy into free market societies – adaption of democratic and free market principles- is an intricate and time consuming process, that is exacerbated with the geopolitical tensions. Therefore, to overcome the unforeseen externalities associated with Iraq’s post-conflict environment, international investors ought to:

• Recalibrate their corporate sustainability strategies to reflect Iraqi market’s idiosyncrasies. Among them, political landscape, tribal and cultural nuances, ethno-sectarian fabric, institutional and bureaucratic hurdles.
•  Build in-house leaders and foster their global mindset, transcultural competence, and societal capital. Such virtues are essential prerequisites for the implementation of the aforementioned strategies.

Simply put, “Ignorant both of your enemy and yourself, you are certain to be in peril”  Sun Tzu, a renowned Chinese military general, strategist and philosopher.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The author, Tariq Abdell, is Iraq’s political risk analyst, and Founder & CEO of Mesopotamia Insight

He can be contacted at: atariq2000@hotmail.com

or

Followed on twitter: http://www.twitter.com/atariqx

By Tariq Abdell, Founder & Chairman, Mesopotamia Insight.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The unanimous approval of the new Iraqi government by the Iraqi lawmakers, to be led by the incumbent premier al-Maliki, is long-awaited news – ending nine tumultuous months of political horse-trading. However, the highly politicized nature  of the new cabinet could easily jeopardize its effectiveness and its decision-making independence; subsequently, protracting Iraq’s tribulations: ethno-sectarian strife, improvised population, and languished infrastructure.

Inarguably, Iraq’s new cabinet first order of business is security, 2011 budget, hydrocarbon and investment laws and, most importantly,  revamping of  Iraq’s underdeveloped oil sector which provides over 90 percent of its budget revenues.

Given Iraq’s colossal energy reserves, 115 billion barrels of oil and 112 trillion cubic feet of gas, and the international markets insatiable appetite for energy resources, chiefly the U.S., China, and India; Iraq is strategically positioned as ever before to reclaim its well-deserved seat among the major oil producers  such as Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Nevertheless, the daunting challenges of the oil sector - decades of wars and sanctions- are solemnly hampering the country’seconomic  recovery and its multi-billion dollar mega-reconstruction projects (e.g., housing, schools, hospitals, roads, bridges, airports, dams, etc…) – among them:   

• The oil sector is a highly politicized field.
• Major oil fields require billions of dollars for rehabilitation and development.
• The oil workforce is in desperate need of training and technological know-how.
• OPEC constraints (production quotas, for instance).
• Severely languished oil  infrastructure (systematic bottleneck, for instance)
• Repealed hydrocarbon law

Given the aforementioned challenges, the new Iraqi Government shall devise a concerted post-conflict oil strategy, that is capable of revamping the oil sector and, subsequently, boosting production capacity to its desired levels - from 2.5 million barrels a day to 12 million bpd over the next six years- the strategy shall entail the followings:

a)  Independent and inclusive Petroleum Council -reflecting the geographic distribution of Iraq’s energy resources- that is responsible for formulating oil strategies, enforcing transparency and accountability as bulwarks against corruption, and, most importantly, deflecting the politicization of the oil sector.

b) Conducive and transparent business environment compatible with Iraq’s new constitution -ratification of  the  investment and hydrocarbon laws-  susceptible to assure and attract greatly needed foreign capital and technological know-how.  

C) Equitable distribution of oil revenues to avoid the resource-rich nations’ deleterious disease also known as the resource war. Historically, the bulk of Iraq’s oil revenues are distributed along ethno-sectarian and tribal allegiances, as opposed to inclusive and growth-oriented economic policies,

Moreover, given the IOCs vested interest in the Iraqi oil, the new government ought to seek the IOCs’ expertise to help revamp its oil sector by introducing technological know-how, the industry best practices, and foster a professionally literate workforce. With such perspicacious initiative, Iraqi government will definitely enhance its oil sector efficiency, boost production, and, eventually, spur economic recovery.

Conversely, in the absence of a concerted and inclusive national development strategy susceptible to resuscitate the country’s weakened economy, create jobs, and, ultimately, improve the well-being of  of its impoverished population; Iraq may risk reigniting political instability, ethno-sectarian strife, religious fanaticism, and foreign intervention as result of its  injudicious policies. 

 The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The author, Tariq Abdell, is an Iraq analyst, and Founder & Chairman of Mesopotamia Insight

He can be contacted at: atariq2000@hotmail.com

or

Followed on twitter: http://www.twitter.com/atariqx

By Tariq Abdell, Founder & Chairman, Mesopotamia Insight.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The absence, thus far, of a democratically elected and accountable government — over six months of political horse-trading — underscores Iraq’s fragile democracy that is exacerbated by a host of concomitant factors: inept and Self-serving political class, the region’s geopolitical tensions and ploys (Iran’s nuclear and expansionist ambitions, for instance), end of U.S. combat operations, and the resource curse – oil and gas.

The deep-rooted causes of the protracted political crisis and its calamitous symptoms (e.g., extremely impoverished population, lack of basic services, higher unemployment, severely languished infrastructure, dysfunctional State’s institutions, political violence and organized crime, etc…) are most likely to linger for years to come if the coming government is a sectarian-based, non-inclusive, and opts for political marginalization. Consequently,  entrenching Iraq’s centuries-old  ethno-sectarian schisms and setting the conditions for a weak and failed government… Simply put, Lebanization of Iraq’s nascent democracy.

Abraham Lincoln once said “A house divided against itself cannot stand.”, Iraqi politicians are morally and legally accountable before their constituents; thus, they are compelled to devise a concerted  and comprehensive  post-conflict National Reconciliation strategy capable of  a) preserving Iraq’s unity b) averting the collapse of the State’s institutions and c) creating the conditions for a sustainable and inclusive socio-economic recovery.

Drawing on past experiences, Iraqi leaders and lawmakers –from different political factions– need to reach out to nations with similar past and build on their learned lessons:  President Nelson Mandela’s post-apartheid Truth and Reconciliation Commission (SA TRC) in South Africa,  Rwanda’s post-genocide  National Unity and Reconciliation Commission (NURC), etc…  Moreover,  the United Nations (UN), as an honest broker in conflict and post-conflict zones,  could play a major role in overseeing and promoting Iraq’s National Reconciliation, rule of law, and help rehabilitate Iraq’s decadent institutions as result of decades of wars and sanctions.

In the absence of a comprehensive and concerted national reconciliation strategy addressing the aspirations and preoccupations of Iraq’s different ethno-sectarian groups, Iraq is most likely to revert to its darkest years of sectarian violence and lawlessness (05-07) — geopolitically fueled and petro-dollars funded–  and, subsequently,  jeopardizing all the hard-earned achievements chiefly the toppling of Saddam’s tyranny.

Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonso, a prominent Venezuelan diplomat primarily responsible for OPEC inception which Iraq is a founding member, coined the phrase: “You will see oil will bring us ruin … oil is the devil’s excrement.”

Irrefutably, if Iraq’s ruling class persists on pursuing the perilous path of political sectarianism and inequitable distribution of wealth, the outcomes of such tendencies would be a devastating political upheavals and vicious cycle of violent communal conflicts over the control and exploitation of Iraq’s resources (oil and gas) and the allocation of the petro-dollars.

Historically, the bulk of Iraq’s oil revenues are distributed along ethno-sectarian and tribal allegiances, as opposed to inclusive and growth-oriented economic policies, to preserve the ruling class power and maintain loyalties among its favored constituents. Consequently, giving rise to a wealthy and influential — religiously and politically — elite class .

“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,” according to report from the US Joint Forces Command

Given Iraq’s proven oil and gas reserves, 115 billion barrels of oil and 112 trillion cubic feet of gas,  and current Peak Oil as result of global markets insatiable appetite for energy resources e.g., U.S., China, and India. Iraq is strategically positioned  as ever before to lead the oil market and bring immeasurable inflow of petro-dollars –commensurate with its colossal  reserves– that can be used to fund its impending multi-billion dollar mega-reconstruction projects (e.g., houses, roads, hospitals, bridges, airports, schools, dams, etc) and, ultimately, lift millions of Iraqis out of poverty in a country where over 20 per cent of the population still live below the poverty line.

To this end, Iraq needs to institute an independent and inclusive  Petroleum Council — reflecting  the geographic distribution of Iraq’s energy resources — that is responsible for formulating oil strategies, deflecting the politicization of the oil sector, enforcing transparency and accountability as bulwarks against corruption , and robust enough to reign SOC, NOC, and IOCs. Furthermore, Iraq can draw on other resource-rich nations’ experiences in coping with the resource curse phenomenon e.g., Canada, Norway, and UAE. Also, Iraq needs to tap into its  expatriates’ knowledge and expertise such as Mr. Farouk al-Kasim who helped Norway established its successful and prosperous oil industry.  

Inarguably, a genuine national reconciliation is Iraq’s holy grail, in other words, it’s an imperative prerequisite for preserving Iraq’s unity, terrotorial integrity, and political stability. Conversely, lack of a genuine  national reconciliation strategy, strategic foresight, and leadership could easily trigger a resource war, resource-rich nations’ deleterious disease, over Iraq’s black gold. Alas, Iraq and its future generations would have to pay dearly for today’s  injudicious choices , in other words, perpetuating  Iraq’s ethno-sectarian strife, political instability, religious fanaticism, foreign interventions, economic setbacks, enormous debt and, consequently,  undermining the desperately needed investments.   

In sum, ”A nation’ s strength ultimately consists in what it can do on its own, and not in what it can borrow from others.” Indira Gandhi.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The author, Tariq Abdell, is an Iraq analyst, and Founder & Chairman of Mesopotamia Insight

He can be contacted at: atariq2000@hotmail.com

or

Followed on twitter: http://www.twitter.com/atariqx

By Tariq Abdell, Founder & Chairman, Mesopotamia Insight.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The end of U.S. combat operations in Iraq presents a unique opportunity for a new beginning in U.S.- Iraq’s relationship. However, given Iraq’s crippling challenges and U.S. sluggish economy, the success of a such strategic partnership is contingent upon the political will of both U.S. and Iraqi governments, the support of the international community, and the genuine commitment of the international oil companies – Iraq’s biggest investors.

Drawing on past experiences, the stakeholders (U.S. government, Iraqi government, UNDP, World Bank, international oil companies, etc…) need to devise a concerted post-conflict reconstruction strategy, Marshall plan type, that is capable of  a) averting the collapse of State’s institutions and b) creating the conditions for a sustainable socio-economic recovery. However, before undertaking a such colossal challenge, stakeholders need to build a strategic framework defining  the mission’s objectives (attainable and realistic), organizational design (steering committee, for instance) , stakeholders’ roles and responsibilities, needed resources, and performance metrics.

Respectively, I’ll explore key stakeholders’ roles and responsibilities in Iraq’s post-conflict reconstruction  as it’s mandated by their respective missions.

Iraqi government

In this process, Iraqi government should be treated as an equal partner that is fully responsible and accountable of its actions before its constituents and the international community. Consequently, the new elected government needs to formulate a comprehensive development strategy in concert with key stakeholders, including the planning for the impending multi-billion dollar mega-reconstruction projects, and the followings are some key areas of common interest and cooperation:

• National reconciliation to fend off ethno-sectarian strife and political violence.
• Reining in corruption and enhancing institutions efficiency.
• Providing basic services (e.g., drinking water, electricity, running sewer, health care, education, etc….)
• Promoting rule of law and human rights.
• Tackling  illiteracy challenges, a serious threat to the country’s future.
• Creating jobs, higher unemployment rates are source of societal and political upheavals e.g., organized  crime, militias, etc….
• Revamping severely languished infrastructure.
• Reviving the country strategic industries to curtail its dependence on petrodollars.

U.S. Government 

To ensure the success of its new mission “New Dawn” in Iraq, the U.S. needs to learn from its past mistakes – $53 billion of unfinished or poorly executed projects– and capitalize on its acquired knowledge and understanding of Iraq’s ethno-sectarian fabric, political landscape, and socio-economic dynamics. Thus, U.S. Department of State’s Iraq strategic partnership office ISPO and USAID  should play a crucial role in coordinating and overseeing the reconstruction efforts in concert with other stakeholders e.g., Iraqi government, UNDP, etc….

United Nations Development Programme

Given UNDP extensive experience –Honest broker– in conflict and post-conflict zones, the UNDP is well-positioned to promote and oversee national reconciliation, rule of law, and rehabilitate State’s decadent institutions to enhance efficiency and  inclusiveness – Hiring and promotions are merit-based and not politically dictated.

World Bank

Given the decay of Iraq’s financial institutions  as result of decades of wars and sanctions, the World Bank’s role,  key partner in this reconstruction efforts, is to provide post-conflict reconstruction expertise, financial and technical assistance,  which are key ingredients for a sustainable development.

International oil companies (IOCs)

Given the current Peak Oil and IOCs vested interest in a stable and secure Iraq, IOCs should play a major role in this reconstruction efforts. Oil sector is the engine of Iraq’s economy  -%90 of government revenue. Nonetheless, the oil sector challenges are hampering the country’s economic recovery:   

• Major oil fields require billions of dollars for rehabilitation and development as result of decades of wars and sanctions.
• Current oil workforce is in desperate need of training and technological know-how.
• Oil sector is a highly politicized field.

Thus, given Iraq’s vast reserves of oil and gas,  IOCs’ should help revamp the oil sector swiftly by introducing technological know-how, the industry best practices, and fostering local workforce. With such perspicacious initiatives, IOCs will help enhance the oil sector efficiency, increase production, spur economic recovery;  and, eventually, countervail some of deep-seated distrust and apprehension.

In sum, in the absence of a clear post-conflict reconstruction strategy, Iraq’s convoluted political impasse and the international community inaction — lack of political will– are recipes for a prolonged political instability and ethno-sectarian strife; subsequently, jeopardizing all the hard-earned successes (e.g., fair elections, strong Army, etc…) and exacerbating  geopolitical tensions. Moreover, given the endured sacrifices, thus far,  in blood and treasure — thousands of lives and over $ 751 billion war price tag — it’s imperative to stand by Iraq in these difficult times to prevent it from reverting to a military dictatorship or ,worst, religious tyranny.  In his speech to congress (12th March, 1947), President Truman exquisitely puts it when he warns us against lose of hope, destitution, and their grim outcomes chiefly chaos and tyranny:

“… The seeds of totalitarian regimes are nurtured by misery and want. They spread and grow in the evil soil of poverty and strife. They reach their full potential when the hope of a people for  a better life has died. We must keep that hope alive. If we falter in our leadership, we may endanger the peace of the world – and we shall surely endanger the welfare of our own nation…”

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

 The author, Tariq Abdell, is an Iraq analyst, and Founder & Chairman of Mesopotamia Insight

He can be contacted at: atariq2000@hotmail.com

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