AKE has compiled statistics covering violence in Iraq over the course of 2011. The average week saw 56 attacks, many of which included bombings targeting civilians on an indiscriminate basis. The Iraqi security forces also suffered numerous attacks and will likely remain a major focus for militant groups now that the US military has withdrawn from the country. A total of 1716 explosive attacks took place, with 78 of them involving suicide bombers. Eighty-three people were also kidnapped, with many remaining in captivity or unaccounted for.

Weekly Fatalities in Iraq - figures fluctuated throughout 2011

Casualties
AKE also documented at least 2893 fatalities over the year. However, the true figure is almost certain to be much higher. AKE figures are collated on a ‘spot’ basis, i.e. they are taken within 24 hours of a violent incident and do not take into account those who have died later from their injuries. The monitoring agency Iraq Body Count recorded a rise in civilian casualties in 2011, with 4,059 documented fatalities over the course of the year.

Q4 Conditions
Between October and December Baghdad was the most violent part of the country. The capital saw an average of 2-3 attacks per day, accounting for 38 per cent of all the violence in the country over the period. The next most hazardous province was Ninawa where the city of Mosul saw an average of 1-2 attacks per day. Other violent areas included the volatile and socially-mixed province of Ta’mim (Kirkuk) as well as the central provinces of Anbar, Babil, Diyala and Salah ad-Din.

Frequency of Incidents Oct-Dec 2011

Greener Pastures
The Kurdish provinces were very quiet, although they saw a small number of incidents, including cross border military operations by Iran and Turkey and a rise in localised social tensions in certain areas. The south of Iraq also saw very little violence. The quietest provinces in the whole of the country were Muthanna and Najaf which saw no major incidents of violence at all in the last quarter of the year. Even the oil-rich and previously troubled  provinces of Basrah and Maysan were far quieter than their counterparts in the centre and north of the country.

The Energy Sector
Such improvement in the southern region bodes well for the numerous companies looking to do business in the area in 2012. However, with ongoing violence, including a significant bombing in central Basrah the day before an oil and gas conference last year, security will likely remain a major consideration over the coming months for the industry.

Planning for 2012
AKE maintains a real-time security, political and travel risk report on Iraq, which readers can purchase here.  It contains risk assessment material, projections on how the security and political risk environment is likely to evolve over the coming year, travel guidelines and advice, as well as an archived database of analysis on the country stretching back to 2003. You can also obtain a free trial of our emailed intelligence by filling in your details here.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, an international risk mitigation firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can follow him on twitter here, and you can view the company website here.

Many are concerned that conditions could worsen in Iraq once the US military has withdrawn its forces from the country. Troops are required to leave by the end of the year and the pullout is already well underway. Hundreds of transport vehicles are currently snaking their way south towards the Kuwaiti border. Most of the troops are likely to have left the country by Christmas. Concerns are not being eased by a recent bomb in the International/Green Zone and a rise in violence over the course of November.

At least 200 people were killed and over 560 injured in violent incidents over the course of the month. Of the dozens of recorded attacks over a third targeted civilians. However, it was the security forces who bore the brunt of the violence. Over half of all the attacks targeted either the Iraqi police or military.

Government employees, particularly those working in ministries in the capital, were the next most commonly targeted group. After that the Sahwah organisation suffered the next greatest number of targeted shootings and bombings in the central provinces. The US military suffered a handful of attacks, but they will now go into decline as the force crosses the border into Kuwait.

Militant Targeting in November

Commercial interests remain at risk of attack in Iraq but they remain targeted only infrequently. The oil and gas sector was not targeted at all over the course of the month, although a bombing in Basrah the day before a notable oil and gas conference served as a sharp reminder of the security issues facing private businesses. Two recent attacks on North Oil Company employees in Kirkuk also illustrate that the hydrocarbon sector is far from immune.

The economic potential in Iraq is significant so would-be investors should not be put off by ongoing violence. The operating environment simply requires a different approach from a health and safety perspective. The industry-wide principles of preparation, training, protection, intelligence and insurance are as applicable in Iraq as in other industry hotspots such as Algeria, Angola and Nigeria. Risk-aware companies which prepare themselves appropriately for investing securely in the country will likely find themselves far ahead of their competitors.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Levels of violence crept up in Iraq over the past fortnight, but conditions have been generally quieter over the last four months when compared to earlier in the year. AKE has compiled maps showing the distribution of the latest violence. The first map shows the location of specific incidents of violence, pinpointed around the country.

Distribution

Attacks have been concentrated in Baghdad, Mosul and Kirkuk, as well as other urban areas running from Hadithah in Anbar province, through Ramadi, Fallujah and Abu Ghraib, on to Diyala province and south through Babil province. Other hotspots include Tuz Khurmatu in Salah ad-Din province, Kut in Wassit province, and Basrah and Nassiriyah in the south of the country.

Incidents of Violence in Iraq - the last 4 months

Kurdistan

Turkish military activity has also affected the sparsely populated northern borders of Kurdistan, which creates what could be interpreted as an alarming belt of violence in what are otherwise very quiet provinces. However, the Kurdish region remains stable and the activity is having very little impact on local security, save in the immediate border area.

District Level Violence

The second map shows the approximate frequency of violence on a district level over the past four months. The two most hazardous areas in the country are Baghdad and Mosul, followed by the districts of Kirkuk (Ta’mim province), Ba’qubah (Diyala province), Abu Ghraib, Fallujah and Ramadi (Anbar province), and Mada’in, Mahawil and Hillah (Babil province).

Which districts see the most - and the least - violence?

Some Good News…

In addition to Kurdistan, areas which remain consistently quiet include Muthanna and Najaf provinces. Incidents have also been very infrequent in a number of the oil-rich southern districts, including a number in the provinces of Basrah, Dhi Qar and Maysan. Security remains a concern in these areas and companies will still need to take precautions, but the outlook appears favourable for the many firms looking to do business in the region.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Despite Monday’s deadly attack against a police facility in Anbar province, overall levels of violence declined in Iraq over recent months. At least 676 people were killed between July and September as a result of over 700 separate terrorist and militant attacks. This constituted an improvement from the second quarter of the year (April-June) when at least 865 people were killed countrywide.

Hotspots

Over 25% of the incidents between July and September occurred in Baghdad, which experienced an average of 2-3 attacks per day during the period. The second most hostile part of the country was Mosul, a northern city still considered to be a stronghold of al-Qaeda in Iraq. It currently sees 1-2 attacks per day. The oil-rich and ethnically divided city of Kirkuk, also in the north of the country, sees an average of 6-7 attacks per week.

Frequency of Q3 Attacks by Province

The South

The southern provinces saw a slight improvement in conditions, which bodes well for the many international energy companies looking to establish broader operations in the  region. Nonetheless, militant groups retain a presence in the area and sporadic attacks continue to take place. Basrah currently sees an average of four attacks per month. Muthanna province on the other hand has seen no attacks so far this year.

Kurdistan

Kurdistan remains quiet, although the Turkish and Iranian militaries continue to launch cross border operations in search of Kurdish rebels. This is having a minimal effect on foreign nationals and the many private businesses operating in the largely stable region.

These findings were published in a report produced by AKE, an international security and risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. Further security, political and travel risk mitigation information on Iraq is available on our intelligence website Global Intake.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company and its secure accommodation capabilities can be found here while AKE’s intelligence and political risk website Global IntAKE can be accessed here. You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here. You can also follow John Drake on twitter here.

Illegal checkpoints may be making a resurgence in Iraq. On 12 September militants stopped and killed several Shi’ah pilgrims at one such installation in Anbar province. Recent months have seen a number of similar facilities being set up by armed militants, mainly in the central provinces, but also around some parts of the north of Iraq as well. Militants manning these checkpoints have often been wearing police or army uniforms and have been difficult to spot. Passing cars have been attacked and occupants killed, injured and kidnapped.

AKE Advises
AKE advises personnel to adhere to main, well patrolled routes when travelling in areas most at risk. These currently include the provinces of Anbar, Diyala, Ninawa, Ta’mim and Salah ad-Din, particularly in the districts of Mosul, Kirkuk and those immediately surrounding Baghdad. Try to travel during daylight hours and be alert to suspicious activity at checkpoints up ahead.

A Familiar Risk
The tactic of illegal checkpoints will be familiar to those working in Iraq in 2007 and earlier years as it was widely practised. The difference today is that these incidents are not yet occurring in the capital where there is a strong police presence. They are taking place in more isolated areas, although personnel throughout the centre of Iraq should be aware of the risk, regardless of their precise location. Keep your staff aware and consider taking a security specialist on all journeys. For further information and advice please contact the AKE intelligence department at intel@akegroup.com. For security assistance in the country please contact akebaghdad@akegroup.com.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here while AKE’s intelligence and political risk website Global IntAKE can be accessed here.

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here.
You can also follow John Drake on twitter here.

Iraq’s oil wealth is massive, with significant economic potential for years to come. Unfortunately, development is being hampered by endemic violence and ongoing instability. However, the main reserves are not evenly distributed around the country and neither is the violence. By avoiding the violent hotspots companies can still make significant profits with minimal exposure to the risks posed by militancy and political upheaval. Instead of being deterred by regular headlines of death and destruction, companies should take a closer look at the country to assess exactly where the risk lies, and where the opportunities abound.

Some parts of the country have oil paucity and extensive violence. Anbar province, for example, has comparatively few hydrocarbon reserves, yet it sees attacks on an almost daily basis. On the other hand, some areas such as provinces in the south or those administered by the Kurdish Regional Government in the north, have extensive reserves and see virtually no violence.

Frequency of Attacks by Province - Q2 2011

The South

By comparing the oil wealth of each province with the number of attacks it sees on a regular basis, it would appear that Maysan province in the south of the country could be a particularly attractive investment location. Accounting for over 7% of the country’s oil wealth the province suffered less than 1% of all countrywide attacks recorded in the second quarter of 2011 (April – June). Neighbouring Basrah province saw between 2-3 attacks every week over the period, but with more than half of the country’s oil reserves it is no surprise that energy firms and numerous service companies are still flocking to the province and its significant potential.

The North

Kurdistan in the north of the country is more of an established investment hotspot. As previously documented, conditions are very stable in the autonomous region, which accounts for at least 3% of the country’s oil, and more of its gas reserves. Conversely, the adjacent northern provinces of Ninawa and Ta’mim have over 15% of the country’s oil reserves between them, yet they experienced a quarter of the country’s violence in the second quarter. Ta’mim province currently sees an average of around eight attacks per week, while Ninawa province sees up to 12 and more so upstream oil and gas activity could be seen as more of a gamble in these areas. Companies operating here will have to take extensive measures to protect their assets and personnel – although business is certainly still possible in the two provinces.

Baghdad

Conditions seem even more punishing in the capital, which suffered more than 40% of all attacks recorded between April and June. The wider province accounts for just under 6% of the country’s oil reserves, and the violence must seem a daunting challenge to those looking to do business in the city. Nonetheless, Baghdad still houses the embassies and main political decision making bodies of the government, all of whom are involved in the oil and gas industry. Occasional trips at least will be required by companies looking to work in the country’s most important economic sector.

Baghdad at Sunset

To reassure those that must, it is still perfectly possible to do business in the capital, and indeed all of the parts of the country which still see regular violence. With proper security procedures companies are able to overcome the many security obstacles presented in the country. Indeed industry considerations aside Baghdad remains a favourite destination of this author, who even without a military background, is still able to travel around the city in relative security.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here.

AKE will be exhibiting at Offshore Europe in Aberdeen between the 6^th and 8^th September. Feel free to visit stand 5C110 where you can meet the author. If you would like to register to attend as an AKE guest for free please complete your details here.

Iraqi politician Ayad Jamal ad-Din was injured in a rocket attack on his home earlier in the week. The weapon, believed to have been fired from southern Baghdad, slammed into his house in the normally quiet district of Jadriyah. He may be the latest victim of a string of attacks targeting politicians, mid-level ministry employees and high profile members of the security forces. Speculation has risen over who was to blame for the attack, with several militant organisations potentially involved.

Blame and Motives

Rockets and mortars – referred to in military terms as ‘indirect fire’ are still a fairly regular occurrence in the capital. Most are attributed to Shi’ah militant groups, particularly those with an animosity towards the western presence in the country. Such groups have been targeting US military interests with increased ferocity over recent weeks, keen to send a signal to Washington that its forces are not welcome in the country. These groups have also been linked to Iranian elements, who are similarly opposed to American influence in Iraq.

However, it would be premature to blame these groups. An investigation is ongoing into the attack and no groups have yet claimed responsibility. Furthermore, the nature of indirect fire in general makes it difficult to assign blame. The politician may not even have been the chosen target. Indirect fire is notoriously inaccurate, and while militants in Baghdad have been perfecting their targeting for years they nonetheless continue to miss their intended targets on a regular basis. Rocket and mortar attacks aimed at the Green Zone regularly land elsewhere – including in the Tigris and Jadriyah district itself.

Recommendations

The best advice is for everyone to be prepared for the risk, regardless of whether or not they are a visiting delegate staying in the fortified Green Zone, or a Baghdad resident living in one of the surrounding districts. Personnel are advised to familiarise themselves with fire-safety and evacuation procedures in their places of residence and to be aware of their nearest shelters, fire-exits and medical personnel. Be prepared to seek cover at short notice. Even facilities which would normally be considered secure are specifically at risk of this type of attack, so there are no grounds for complacency.

The Location

Jadriyah district is located on the Karradah peninsula, south of the fortified International/Green Zone. Many of the checkpoints are manned by well trained Kurdish Peshmerga forces, who remain vigilant and are largely responsible for keeping violence to a minimum. The district houses a number of high profile politicians, including Iraqi president Jamal Talabani. It is also becoming more popular with foreign nationals seeking to live beyond the confines of the Green Zone. Even here though, where conditions are quiet, there are no grounds for complacency.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here while AKE’s intelligence and political risk website Global IntAKE can be accessed here.

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here.
You can also follow John Drake on twitter here.

As an Iraq security analyst I often find that I am writing at length about violence, pain and causes for concern. However, for this blog entry I would like to make what I hope is a welcome exception.

I regularly write about how violence has escalated in the north of Iraq, usually in relation to the cities of Kirkuk and Mosul. I occasionally write that conditions have been quiet in Kurdistan, but I don’t often dwell on it. For me, it is obvious. Kurdistan is arguably as safe as a European country, and statistically speaking it sees fewer terrorist attacks than its neighbour (and popular tourist destination) Turkey. As a result I normally have very little to report on.

Perceptions
However, at a recent Kurdistan trade event in Edinburgh I was reminded that this perception is not widely understood amongst many would-be investors. Kurdistan is regarded as being just as risky as the rest of the country, and strategic decisions are made on that basis. From a regional level this is an unfair burden for the three Kurdish administered provinces – Arbil, Dahuk and Sulaymaniyah – referred to casually as ‘the other Iraq’. From a business perspective, companies are also losing out on huge investment potential by overlooking these three stable and oil-rich provinces.

Security
So what role does a security company have in such a region? Firstly, my job is to advise, so I spend much of my time convincing travellers that the situation is indeed safe enough to do business. While AKE assigns Iraq with a negative security risk rating we rate the Kurdish region separately – at a much lower and more positive rating. Some firms continue to use armed security and armoured convoys when travelling around the region. While some may do this for the purpose of prestige some may also have grossly over-estimated the operating risks of the region. Either way, such measures are often expensive and unnecessary.

Awareness
Travel safety and awareness training is still recommended for personnel working in the region. While conditions are safe terrorists have nonetheless made occasional attempts to infiltrate the region. Road conditions and medical facilities can also be poor in some areas beyond the main towns. A basic awareness of medical knowledge and stabilising treatment can be useful in the event of a road traffic accident somewhere in the mountains, for example.

However, such conditions could apply in many parts of the world and Kurdistan is certainly no exception. There are areas not so many miles from Edinburgh subjected to very similar conditions – indeed coming from the Hebrides I feel I am qualified to vouch for this.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here while AKE’s intelligence and political risk website Global IntAKE can be accessed here.

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here.
You can also follow John Drake on twitter here.

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