Iraq’s oil wealth is massive, with significant economic potential for years to come. Unfortunately, development is being hampered by endemic violence and ongoing instability. However, the main reserves are not evenly distributed around the country and neither is the violence. By avoiding the violent hotspots companies can still make significant profits with minimal exposure to the risks posed by militancy and political upheaval. Instead of being deterred by regular headlines of death and destruction, companies should take a closer look at the country to assess exactly where the risk lies, and where the opportunities abound.

Some parts of the country have oil paucity and extensive violence. Anbar province, for example, has comparatively few hydrocarbon reserves, yet it sees attacks on an almost daily basis. On the other hand, some areas such as provinces in the south or those administered by the Kurdish Regional Government in the north, have extensive reserves and see virtually no violence.

Frequency of Attacks by Province - Q2 2011

The South

By comparing the oil wealth of each province with the number of attacks it sees on a regular basis, it would appear that Maysan province in the south of the country could be a particularly attractive investment location. Accounting for over 7% of the country’s oil wealth the province suffered less than 1% of all countrywide attacks recorded in the second quarter of 2011 (April – June). Neighbouring Basrah province saw between 2-3 attacks every week over the period, but with more than half of the country’s oil reserves it is no surprise that energy firms and numerous service companies are still flocking to the province and its significant potential.

The North

Kurdistan in the north of the country is more of an established investment hotspot. As previously documented, conditions are very stable in the autonomous region, which accounts for at least 3% of the country’s oil, and more of its gas reserves. Conversely, the adjacent northern provinces of Ninawa and Ta’mim have over 15% of the country’s oil reserves between them, yet they experienced a quarter of the country’s violence in the second quarter. Ta’mim province currently sees an average of around eight attacks per week, while Ninawa province sees up to 12 and more so upstream oil and gas activity could be seen as more of a gamble in these areas. Companies operating here will have to take extensive measures to protect their assets and personnel – although business is certainly still possible in the two provinces.

Baghdad

Conditions seem even more punishing in the capital, which suffered more than 40% of all attacks recorded between April and June. The wider province accounts for just under 6% of the country’s oil reserves, and the violence must seem a daunting challenge to those looking to do business in the city. Nonetheless, Baghdad still houses the embassies and main political decision making bodies of the government, all of whom are involved in the oil and gas industry. Occasional trips at least will be required by companies looking to work in the country’s most important economic sector.

Baghdad at Sunset

To reassure those that must, it is still perfectly possible to do business in the capital, and indeed all of the parts of the country which still see regular violence. With proper security procedures companies are able to overcome the many security obstacles presented in the country. Indeed industry considerations aside Baghdad remains a favourite destination of this author, who even without a military background, is still able to travel around the city in relative security.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here.

AKE will be exhibiting at Offshore Europe in Aberdeen between the 6^th and 8^th September. Feel free to visit stand 5C110 where you can meet the author. If you would like to register to attend as an AKE guest for free please complete your details here.

Iraqi politician Ayad Jamal ad-Din was injured in a rocket attack on his home earlier in the week. The weapon, believed to have been fired from southern Baghdad, slammed into his house in the normally quiet district of Jadriyah. He may be the latest victim of a string of attacks targeting politicians, mid-level ministry employees and high profile members of the security forces. Speculation has risen over who was to blame for the attack, with several militant organisations potentially involved.

Blame and Motives

Rockets and mortars – referred to in military terms as ‘indirect fire’ are still a fairly regular occurrence in the capital. Most are attributed to Shi’ah militant groups, particularly those with an animosity towards the western presence in the country. Such groups have been targeting US military interests with increased ferocity over recent weeks, keen to send a signal to Washington that its forces are not welcome in the country. These groups have also been linked to Iranian elements, who are similarly opposed to American influence in Iraq.

However, it would be premature to blame these groups. An investigation is ongoing into the attack and no groups have yet claimed responsibility. Furthermore, the nature of indirect fire in general makes it difficult to assign blame. The politician may not even have been the chosen target. Indirect fire is notoriously inaccurate, and while militants in Baghdad have been perfecting their targeting for years they nonetheless continue to miss their intended targets on a regular basis. Rocket and mortar attacks aimed at the Green Zone regularly land elsewhere – including in the Tigris and Jadriyah district itself.

Recommendations

The best advice is for everyone to be prepared for the risk, regardless of whether or not they are a visiting delegate staying in the fortified Green Zone, or a Baghdad resident living in one of the surrounding districts. Personnel are advised to familiarise themselves with fire-safety and evacuation procedures in their places of residence and to be aware of their nearest shelters, fire-exits and medical personnel. Be prepared to seek cover at short notice. Even facilities which would normally be considered secure are specifically at risk of this type of attack, so there are no grounds for complacency.

The Location

Jadriyah district is located on the Karradah peninsula, south of the fortified International/Green Zone. Many of the checkpoints are manned by well trained Kurdish Peshmerga forces, who remain vigilant and are largely responsible for keeping violence to a minimum. The district houses a number of high profile politicians, including Iraqi president Jamal Talabani. It is also becoming more popular with foreign nationals seeking to live beyond the confines of the Green Zone. Even here though, where conditions are quiet, there are no grounds for complacency.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here while AKE’s intelligence and political risk website Global IntAKE can be accessed here.

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here.
You can also follow John Drake on twitter here.

As an Iraq security analyst I often find that I am writing at length about violence, pain and causes for concern. However, for this blog entry I would like to make what I hope is a welcome exception.

I regularly write about how violence has escalated in the north of Iraq, usually in relation to the cities of Kirkuk and Mosul. I occasionally write that conditions have been quiet in Kurdistan, but I don’t often dwell on it. For me, it is obvious. Kurdistan is arguably as safe as a European country, and statistically speaking it sees fewer terrorist attacks than its neighbour (and popular tourist destination) Turkey. As a result I normally have very little to report on.

Perceptions
However, at a recent Kurdistan trade event in Edinburgh I was reminded that this perception is not widely understood amongst many would-be investors. Kurdistan is regarded as being just as risky as the rest of the country, and strategic decisions are made on that basis. From a regional level this is an unfair burden for the three Kurdish administered provinces – Arbil, Dahuk and Sulaymaniyah – referred to casually as ‘the other Iraq’. From a business perspective, companies are also losing out on huge investment potential by overlooking these three stable and oil-rich provinces.

Security
So what role does a security company have in such a region? Firstly, my job is to advise, so I spend much of my time convincing travellers that the situation is indeed safe enough to do business. While AKE assigns Iraq with a negative security risk rating we rate the Kurdish region separately – at a much lower and more positive rating. Some firms continue to use armed security and armoured convoys when travelling around the region. While some may do this for the purpose of prestige some may also have grossly over-estimated the operating risks of the region. Either way, such measures are often expensive and unnecessary.

Awareness
Travel safety and awareness training is still recommended for personnel working in the region. While conditions are safe terrorists have nonetheless made occasional attempts to infiltrate the region. Road conditions and medical facilities can also be poor in some areas beyond the main towns. A basic awareness of medical knowledge and stabilising treatment can be useful in the event of a road traffic accident somewhere in the mountains, for example.

However, such conditions could apply in many parts of the world and Kurdistan is certainly no exception. There are areas not so many miles from Edinburgh subjected to very similar conditions – indeed coming from the Hebrides I feel I am qualified to vouch for this.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here while AKE’s intelligence and political risk website Global IntAKE can be accessed here.

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here.
You can also follow John Drake on twitter here.

AKE Ltd

Levels of violence are rising in Iraq. While some commentators in the press are referring to the increase as a spike, regular readers of Iraq Business News will understand that the rise has actually been very gradual – but consistent – with the number of attacks building up all the way from the beginning of the year. Last week AKE raised the risk rating for the country on Global Intake amid the slowly deteriorating situation and while it is our opinion that Iraq remains a major business opportunity, companies nonetheless need to emphasise the health, safety and security elements of their projects so as to minimise the risk of harm to their staff and assets.

Blame

Groups have not claimed responsibility for the latest string of violence but AKE believes that there is more than one organisation involved. Three of the attacks, including one in Basrah province, involved well planned and co-ordinated attacks using suicide bombers. This is a hallmark of radical Sunni groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq, while the targeting of the government and security forces is also typical of the group. Al-Qaeda affiliated organisations still have intentions of creating their own religious state in the country. While they have been critically weakened over the past four years they remain unwilling to compromise or negotiate with what they see as a corrupt, foreign-backed and apostate government. At the same time, recent attacks in the capital have taken place in areas normally associated with Shi’ah groups, while the prevalence of rocket and mortar attacks also suggests their involvement. Threat groups evidently abound on both sides of the sectarian divide.

Potential Targets

Some of the latest attacks have specifically targeted the places where individuals are supposed to be protected. Military bases, police stations and government compounds have all been targeted. Even normally well-guarded districts such as Jadriyah in Baghdad have been hit. While the Green Zone has not recently been attacked, it may be next on the target list if militant groups want to make an impact on the foreign presence in the country. While it remains well defended against infiltration it is nonetheless still vulnerable to rocket and mortar attacks.

Analysis

There are several possible reasons why conditions have worsened over recent weeks. As mentioned, conditions have been deteriorating gradually since the beginning of the year. Many are frustrated with the government’s inability to provide electricity and jobs. Amid the ‘Arab Spring’ elsewhere in the region, Iraq too has suffered its own unrest, and some of the more radicalised elements of the frustrated population may be turning to militancy to express their dissatisfaction with the government.

The next weekly security update from AKE will show that conditions worsened once again in Iraq last week

The rise in attacks specifically against foreign interests is likely due to a different trend. The US is coming under increasing pressure to withdraw its military from the country by the end of the year. Amid speculation over the possibility of an extension of the Status Of Forces Agreement it could be that radical groups are attempting to send a strong signal to Washington that American forces are not welcome.

Advice

Foreign organisations looking to do business in the country should not be alarmed by what has been a very slow evolving trend in deteriorating security this year. However, safety needs to be treated as paramount when planning trips, meetings, accommodation and projects. Crisis management measures should also be taken into consideration. If you would like any assistance in planning an upcoming visit or you would like any advice in reviewing your current security measures please contact the AKE Iraq office at akebaghdad@akegroup.com

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here while AKE’s intelligence and political risk website Global IntAKE can be accessed here.

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here.
You can also follow John Drake on twitter here.

A suicide bomber killed at least five police officers when he rammed a car laden with explosives` into a compound in Basrah. The attack on 13 June also left several more people injured. Suicide bombings are a favoured tactic of violent jihadi and predominantly Sunni terrorist organisations. This bracket includes groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq and other movements affiliated with al-Qaeda. A statement claiming responsibility may soon be publicised by one such group, potentially demonising the Iraqi police as apostates or subservient to either a politically corrupt government or morally corrupt west.

Recent Trends

These jihadi groups have a much more faint presence in the predominantly Shi’ah south of the country than they do in places like Anbar province or Mosul further north. Suicide attacks remain a very infrequent occurrence in the region as a result. In February 2010 the authorities managed to stop a mentally ill and possibly coerced man who was carrying an explosive suicide belt. He was believed to have been trying to attack Shi’ah pilgrims in Basrah city, but following the intervention there had been no further successful suicide bombings south of Karbala until the latest incident.

Other parts of the country continue to see suicide bombings on a far more regular basis. The Basrah attack constitutes the 400^th suicide bombing in Iraq recorded by AKE since the beginning of 2008. This record signifies an average of around two such attacks every week in the country, although incidents were more common three years ago when al-Qaeda had a greater stranglehold over the central provinces.

Security and Safety

Security measures in the southern region have been described as more relaxed, mainly because violence is much less frequent an occurrence in Basrah than it is in Baghdad. Nonetheless, terrorist organisations still pose a risk. The Basrah attack highlights the fact that jihadis still have the ability to launch spectacular attacks, even in the south. This is despite the loss of key leaders of the organisation over the past two years, not least Osama bin Laden. Companies working in the south of the country are advised to ensure that their facilities are properly protected against the possibility of vehicle-borne explosive suicide attack. While there are numerous business opportunities available in the region and the situation remains far more stable than the rest of the country, there are no grounds for complacency.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here while AKE’s intelligence and political risk website Global IntAKE can be accessed here.

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here.
You can also follow John Drake on twitter here.

The average weekly number of attacks has risen in Iraq over the last two months. Conditions gradually worsened in the first five months of the year, and while the increase in attacks has not been dramatic, it is nonetheless still a concern, particularly as the US prepares to withdraw its military by the end of the year. However, with careful planning companies can still overcome the obstacle of security in Iraq. For a start, violence is highly concentrated, with some areas barely being affected at all.

The Capital

Militant attacks have been most concentrated in Baghdad over the past eight weeks. The city accounted for over 40 per cent of all incidents and is currently over three times more hostile than the next two dangerous cities (Mosul and Kirkuk). However, while it may see more violence than anywhere else in the country, it nonetheless has a number of advantages. For a start, it has numerous ‘safe havens’ or areas where personnel can seek assistance in the event of an incident. It has more security force checkpoints, better hospital facilities and a number of well-patrolled districts which see virtually no violence at all. Foreign firms looking to do business in the capital have a range of options when considering places to arrange meetings or even set up a permanent presence – and their choices are certainly not limited to the Green Zone. There are several districts in the so-called Red Zone that see far fewer incidents on a yearly basis than the heavily fortified city centre.

Levels of Violence by Province - the last 8 weeks

The North

The next two most violent provinces over the last eight weeks were Ninawa and Ta’mim, situated in the north of the country. Each province accounted for 13 per cent of all countrywide attacks, with most of the incidents concentrated in the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk. Recent months have seen a very gradual improvement in security conditions in Mosul, as well-established terrorist organisations have been tackled in a slow and bitter war of attrition with the Iraqi security forces. Kirkuk on the other hand has seen a slight worsening in conditions, with an increase in inter-communal tensions as different ethnic groups compete for influence in the oil-rich and historically contested city.

In sharp contrast to the rest of the country, the area administered by the Kurdish Regional Government has seen very little violence over recent weeks. Companies intent on doing business here have little need to worry about security. That is not to say that there are not other health and safety concerns of a political risk nature in the region. The province of Sulaymaniyah has seen a number of protests over recent weeks, and while most were peaceful, some involved low-level scuffles, arrests and even some vandalism, which is why the province appears on the AKE violence chart. Nonetheless, with only one per cent of all countrywide violence taking place in the province over the last eight weeks, it should still be seen as a stable and largely secure part of the country.

In general, unrest and protests have quietened over recent weeks, although conditions could still escalate over the coming weeks as temperatures rise and the government faces increased criticism for failing to address major public frustrations. Power shortages, poor services and high unemployment are likely to stoke further unrest in Iraq in the future.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 8 weeks

The Central Region

Apart from the capital, the province of Anbar has been the most hazardous part of the central region, accounting for nine per cent of all countrywide attacks over the last eight weeks. Most of the incidents have been concentrated in the east of the province, among urbanised areas such as Fallujah and Ramadi. The provinces of Diyala, Salah ad-Din and Babil each accounted for between four and five per cent and remain hazardous, albeit significantly more quiet than the earlier years of Iraq’s post-invasion history.

The South

The southern part of the country continues to avoid the majority of violent trends which affect central and more northern provinces. The last eight weeks have seen a scattering of incidents in the region, with Basrah province accounting for only three per cent of all countrywide incidents. Nonetheless, there are still no grounds for complacency and fairly robust security measures are still recommended by personnel operating in the area. An attack on an oil field earlier on 5 June indicates that violence is still a concern, and that the energy sector is still an attractive target for the militant groups operating in the region.

Tactics

Almost two-thirds of all countrywide attacks have involved explosive devices, while a quarter have involved firearms. The vast majority of explosive devices have been relatively small, usually incurring injuries rather than fatalities. Sticky bombs have been regularly used, particularly in Baghdad. Casualties have also usually been indiscriminate, with many of the victims being civilian bystanders caught up in attacks against police patrols or US military vehicles.

While the use of firearms in attacks has been much less frequent, it is perhaps a more sinister tactic, in that the victims are almost always singled out and monitored closely prior to an attack. Many of the victims have been senior members of the security forces or mid-level civic employees.

Iraqis targeted in kidnap and ransom incidents are also likely to have been singled out and monitored. Some are selected because of their rank, some because of their community, but most simply because their abductor believes their family will be able to raise money for a ransom. Counter-surveillance measures are therefore recommended for a wide range of individuals.

Indirect fire (rockets and mortars) only accounted for around seven per cent of all attacks, and most did not incur any casualties. Nonetheless, personnel still need to take the risk into account, particularly those using airports or staying on fortified military facilities such as the Green Zone. Indirect fire is most commonly used to target these types of asset, so they should not be considered entirely secure.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here while AKE’s intelligence and political risk website Global IntAKE can be accessed here.

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here.
You can also follow John Drake on twitter here.

Security measures have been heightened in Iraq following the killing of Osama bin Laden. The authorities are expecting the possibility of a retaliatory attack by radical jihadists in response to the news of his death. However, the impact of the killing may be relatively limited.

Weakened Organisation

Al-Qaeda is neither the powerful organisation it once was in Iraq, nor the sole source of political violence in the country. Over recent years its influence has been gradually eroded by a US surge, the establishment of Iraqi Awakening Councils and ongoing improvements in the professionalism of the national security forces. The group lacks the capability to initiate the same number of attacks as it did between 2003 and 2007. It has provided bloody reminders of its strength over the past year, with gruesome attacks on a church in Baghdad in October, and on a provincial government building in Tikrit in March, but the frequency of attacks attributed to the group is far lower today than it was four years ago.

Command Structure

The inspirational leader of the global al-Qaeda movement has had a prominent role in post-invasion Iraq through his repeated messages calling for violence against foreign occupiers and apostates. However, al-Qaeda in Iraq is now far more of a domestic terror organisation. It is no longer as internationally connected as it once was and a greater proportion of its leaders and fundraisers are Iraqi than ever before. It is no longer reliant on the leadership and direction of al-Qaeda figures abroad. It drew inspiration from Osama bin Laden, but did not follow his orders. His death will therefore have little impact on the command and control structure of the organisation. Attacks are therefore likely to continue.

Dispersed Organisation

Even within Iraq, the al-Qaeda movement is an amalgamation of affiliated cells, rather than a tight structure with a rigid chain of command. Individual members are often able to plan and initiate attacks with very little interaction with more senior figures. In 2010 several key leaders of al-Qaeda in Iraq were killed and arrested. While reprisal attacks were anticipated, few occurred. Similarly while some expected a significant reduction in radical jihadist attacks, incidents persisted.

Numerous Threat Groups

Sadly, al-Qaeda is not the only threat group which Iraq has to contend with. There are numerous other violent organisations, including a large number of Shi’ah militant groups, completely unaffiliated with the global al-Qaeda movement. They will continue to conduct attacks around the country regardless of the killing of bin Laden.

The security environment will therefore remain problematic in Iraq, although the obstacles posed by this can still be overcome. Companies which implement proper risk mitigation measures have been able to do business safely and profitably in the country regardless of whether or not Osama bin Laden is dead, alive or influencing terrorist activity in the country.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here while AKE’s intelligence and political risk website Global IntAKE can be accessed here.

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here http://www.akegroup.com/intelligence/trial-subscriptions.php.

You can also follow John Drake on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

Iraq has seen a rise in the number of sticky bomb attacks over the last week. This is a worrying trend, particularly for the state employees and security force personnel who are being singled out for these attacks.

The Tactic
Sticky bombs are also known as Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Devices (UVIEDs). They are usually magnetic in nature and are affixed to a target vehicle before being detonated – usually by remote control. UVIEDs are normally used to kill a specifically targeted individual, such as a ministry employee or senior member of the Iraqi security forces. Foreigners are not normally targeted, but foreign journalists have been singled out in attempted attacks in the past. All personnel should therefore exercise caution.

Distribution
The last six weeks have seen UVIED attacks across the country, but predominantly in eastern Anbar province and western Baghdad. The capital has witnessed at least 26 separate UVIED attacks alone. The weekend also saw an unusual spike in attacks in the northern city of Kirkuk. It is likely that several of the groups responsible are affiliated. Given the location of most of the attacks, many of the militants responsible may be associated with Sunni groups. The Shi’ah south of Iraq and east of Baghdad have seen far fewer UVIED attacks over recent months.

The following locations have suffered at least one UVIED attack over the past six weeks:

Recent UVIED attacks in Iraq

Iraq-wide: Ba’qubah, Baghdad, Fallujah, Iskandariyah, Karmah, Khanaqin, Kirkuk, Mahmudiyah, Mosul, Mussayab, Ramadi, Taji

Recent UVIED attacks in Baghdad

Baghdad-specific: Adhimiyah, Allawi, Amiriyah, Bayaa, Dourah, Ghazaliyah, Hurriyah, Khadraa, Mansour, Nidhal, Palestine Street, Qaddisiyah, Qahirah, Saydiyah, Yarmouk, Za’faraniyah

Recent Police Operations
On 13 April the police in Fallujah uncovered a factory being used to manufacture UVIEDs. The find may interrupt bomb-making activities in Anbar province, but there are likely to be several more such factories scattered throughout the central provinces, including in the capital. It is also likely that the bombs are being produced in the northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk as well.

Recommendations
For a start, vehicles should contain fire extinguishers, medical equipment and even window-breaking tools, which may be necessary in the event of an attack, particularly one which leaves vehicle occupants trapped.

The bombs are normally affixed to a vehicle that has been parked and left unattended. However, they have occasionally been attached to cars stuck in heavy traffic in central Baghdad. Personnel are therefore advised to exercise caution when travelling at times of congestion. Try to avoid allowing people to approach your vehicle, including street vendors and pedestrians passing through traffic.

Personnel must also inspect their vehicles before and after every journey, even minor ones. Look out for any suspicious devices around the underside of the vehicle as you approach it, and be aware of your surroundings. Most of the devices are detonated by remote control by an operator who is situated within eyesight.

When you park a vehicle, it should not be left unattended. The driver should always stay with it unless it is secured in a known and trusted location. Where this is not possible, try and find a parking attendant. They are commonly found in the city centre locations where UVIEDs are a risk, particularly in downtown Baghdad. Do not leave the vehicle for too long, and when you return, try to have the parking attendant approach the vehicle with you. If there has been any suspicious activity affecting your car they will not want to go near it.

Ultimately, UVIEDs are predominantly used against targets who have been selected and likely monitored for a period of time. As such, a key mitigating factor is to implement counter-surveillance techniques. Make it as difficult as possible for a would-be attacker to spot you, follow your behaviour and predict your movements. Avoid following routines in public places. Vary your routes and your appearance.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found at www.akegroup.com/iraq

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here http://www.akegroup.com/intelligence/trial-subscriptions.php

You can also follow John Drake on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

www.akegroup.com/iraq