As security measures are heightened ahead of the Arab League Summit in Baghdad levels of violence fell in Iraq last week with 26 people killed and 22 injured in nationwide incidents. This was a drop by half from the previous week and a very low figure in general for the country.

However, a spate of attacks swept the country on 20 March, killing at least 50 people and injuring over 250. The bombings have been claimed by al-Qaeda in Iraq and as analysed on Iraq Business News were likely an attempt to discredit the government. Many are now questioning the security measures put in place ahead of the summit although at the time of writing the event is still set to go ahead. To cancel it at this stage would constitute a major loss of face.

Managing Traffic
The government has announced that a public holiday will begin on 25 March, lasting beyond the course of the event. Official buildings will be closed and traffic congestion in Baghdad will be reduced as a result. This will make it easier for the security forces to manage the traffic and search more vehicles moving around the city. This is turn will hopefully make it more difficult for terrorists to infiltrate, but travel conditions will still be difficult for the personnel who continue to work in the capital.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months. Note the decline in violence over the past week. Next week's bar will likely see a notable rise.

Violence Last Week
In the run-up to the latest assault conditions were relatively quiet countrywide. Only six bomb attacks were recorded last week, which is less than a third of the usual weekly figure. For a change, more people were killed in shooting attacks than in bomb blasts, with 18 people shot dead and 14 injured against only seven killed and eight injured by explosive devices over the course of the week.

Geographical Distribution
Attacks were concentrated in the northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, with a scattering of attacks in districts surrounding the capital. Basrah also saw a demonstration on Monday as local residents and attendees from elsewhere in the southern provinces gathered to complain of a lack of development and high unemployment in the oil-rich region.

A number of blasts have also been reported in the city although they appear to have slipped under the radar of in-country news coverage. No casualties have been reported but security has been increased around central Basrah in response and personnel are reminded that conditions are neither ‘safe’ nor ‘stable’ in what should otherwise be considered a city with strong economic opportunities. Companies are still encouraged to look to the city as a good investment, but proper risk mitigation measures need to be put in place prior to any serious investment.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Levels of violence rose in Iraq last week. At least 70 people were killed and 76 injured in nationwide incidents, although this figure does not include the ‘emo’ and LGBT fatalities widely reported in open sources within Iraq over the past two weeks. A significant rise in the number of small arms fire attacks left 32 people dead and six injured. At least 27 of those fatalities were inflicted during a series of night time attacks on police officers in Hadithah, Anbar province. Otherwise a total of 21 bomb attacks left 13 people dead and 39 injured.

The North
Three of the above mentioned bomb attacks involved a suicide bomber, including a double bombing in the northern town of Tal Afar (in Ninawa province) which left 20 people dead. The northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk also saw a spate of attacks last week, including two kidnappings in Kirkuk city centre. As warned in recent reports, the Turkish military has also increased its cross-border military operations in the Qandil Mountains in pursuit of Kurdish separatist group the PKK. This regularly occurs during the month of March when winter weather conditions begin to ease. However, the majority of the region will remain unaffected by the activity and Iraqi Kurdistan is still regarded as a relatively secure place in which to do business.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

The Centre
Violence was concentrated in the central provinces last week. Baghdad itself was relatively quiet although a series of attacks against the police and jewellery shops in the north of the city and left several people dead. Meanwhile, security measures are being increased in the capital ahead of the Arab League Summit at the end of the month. The authorities announced that a 24-hour ban on carts and motorbikes would be imposed citywide from 17 March. They have not announced when the curfew will end (it will likely be subject to trends in violence and they will not want to give a specific date for terrorists to plan around) but it could last for up to two weeks. Travel around the city centre will likely become difficult as searches and safety measures are being increased around security checkpoints.

Emo and LGBT Killings
As covered in open sources, young emo and Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) individuals have been threatened harassed and even killed by unknown individuals in recent weeks. It would appear that vigilantes are singling out their victims for failing to adhere to what are regarded as religious norms. The victims are reported to have been killed with the use of bricks: a painful and horrific method likely aimed at instilling fear amongst other members of the community. Official sources have not yet confirmed the death toll, with some still denying that they are taking place.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Levels of violence fell in Iraq last week, although the welcome trend was cut short on Sunday night. Militants wearing security force uniforms shot dead at least 27 police officers in a well-planned attack in Haditha. Not including this total, at least 36 people were killed and 41 injured in nationwide incidents last week.

February Trends
In general, levels of violence crept up in Iraq towards the end of February, although in review it was a relatively quiet month. The authorities reported a total of 151 fatalities, including 91 civilians, 39 policemen and 21 soldiers killed by militants during the month. Last week a drop by almost half in the total of bomb attacks left 19 people dead and 35 injured countrywide. There was no major change in the number of small arms attacks reported which left 11 people dead and three injured. Indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) left two dead and three injured.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Geographic spread
Baghdad remains quieter than normal, although it still accounted for several of the week’s attacks, as did the northern city of Mosul where conditions appear to have gradually worsened once again after an unusual quiet period over recent weeks. The south of the country remains quiet, with many expressing optimism over the potential for growth and development in the region. Nonetheless security risks and the potential for wider unrest persists.

There were two shooting incidents reported in the normally secure Kurdish region last week, although they are believed to have been related to personal disputes rather than politics or ideology. At least one person was also killed in a landmine explosion to the north-east of Kirkuk, highlighting the ongoing risk posed by unexploded ordnance – even in secure parts of KRG territory.

Kidnap risk
Perhaps more positively was a police operation on 6 March which reportedly led to the freeing of a hostage civilian held in Ta’mim province. While the Iraqi security forces continue to report successes in tracking down kidnap victims whilst also detaining their captors, the issue of kidnap for ransom remains a major one which personnel need to face, regardless of whether they are foreign or Iraqi. Foreigners in particular remain attractive from a kidnapper’s point of view because of the potentially large ransom they might be able to negotiate in return for their release. Proper risk mitigation measures therefore need to be in place prior to doing business in the country.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

After weeks of declining violence in February, the number of attacks rose once again in Iraq over the last week of the month. At least 53 people were killed and 245 injured in nationwide incidents, which is moderately high, albeit not as high as the figures of over 100 recorded fatalities in some of the weeks at the beginning of the year. There was a rise in the total number of bombings reported and a consistent number of shootings, but more positively there were no kidnappings or indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) recorded. The gradual decline in attacks in February followed by the latest rise is illustrated in the graph below.

North
Mosul in the north has been unusually quiet for at least two weeks, raising concerns that militants in the area have been looking elsewhere to conduct attacks. The spate of bombings which took place around the centre of the country last week could indicate that they have turned their attention to the heartland of the country, although there are also ongoing fears that some of the militants have headed across the border into neighbouring Syria.

Centre
The central region saw the majority of attacks last week, especially around Ba’qubah and Baghdad. Countrywide, a rise in the total number of bomb attacks last week left 39 people dead and 242 injured, but most of the incidents took place in Baghdad and the central provinces. A steady number of small arms fire attacks left 14 people dead and three injured, notably in the capital.

The region suffered a number of attacks on 23 February, a day when co-ordinated bombings struck cities between Hillah and Mosul. Bombs hit Salah ad-Din, Diyala and Babil provinces, as well as Baghdad. In total, at least 50 people were killed and dozens injured, with incidents largely targeting the security forces. However, civilian and judicial interests were also singled out.

The attacks have since been claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq, the Sunni militant organisation affiliated with al-Qaeda, and they may have been timed to coincide with two events. Firstly, the Iraqi government announced that the security situation had improved in the country, so foreign leaders would have no reason to doubt being able to travel to Baghdad for the Arab League summit at the end of March. The attacks were therefore possibly aimed at discrediting the state, not just amongst the Iraqi public, but also amidst the wider region.

Car bombs remain a concern for politicians, travellers and Iraqis alike

Secondly, many (but not all) of the country’s politicians had gathered in parliament on the same day to debate and endorse the federal budget. It was a high-profile event attracting media attention, which was undoubtedly distracted by the numerous attacks taking place around the capital and wider country at the same time. The fact that politicians agreed to spend a significant amount of money on armoured cars appears to have been a particularly controversial decision made on the day.

South
While the southern provinces remain quieter than the north and centre of the country there are nonetheless ongoing hairline cracks in the veneer of overall security in the region. Local sentiment remains outwardly optimistic and positive towards the foreign investment arriving in the region but intra-Shi’ah community and political tensions persist and organisations still need to take security into strong consideration when working in the area. At present, there are rising tensions between rival Shi’ah political organisations, with at least one percussion explosive device detonated outside the home of a political figure north of Basrah last week. Demonstrators also tried to storm a municipal building in Nassiriyah on 24 February in protest at the ongoing closure of a political party office in the city. The security forces remain capable of dealing with low level unrest and sporadic political violence but if unrest gains momentum the security situation could deteriorate, potentially at short notice, over the coming months or even years. Amid the uncertainty, AKE has issued new travel risk analysis, guidance and advice on the country which can be accessed here.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

There was a fall in the number of attacks recorded in Iraq last week, but the death toll was nonetheless higher than normal following a mass-casualty suicide attack targeting a police academy in Baghdad. In total, at least 45 people were killed and 74 injured in nationwide incidents, of which 19 were killed and 29 injured in the suicide attack.

North
AKE has tracked a notable decline in violence in Ninawa province over the past two weeks. While the police have conducted a number of recent raids in the area which may have led to a lull in militant activity there is growing speculation that al-Qaeda fighters from northern Iraq may be shifting their focus away from the country and towards neighbouring Syria. This would explain the recent decline in activity around Mosul but would bode ill for Iraq’s neighbour.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
Diyala province was the most hostile part of Iraq last week, with incidents concentrated between Ba’qubah and Jalawlah towns. Babil was very quiet in contrast. Even the normally stable province of Wassit saw at least one attack and numerous police operations targeting suspected criminals and terrorists. Baghdad has been quieter than normal over recent weeks but the weekend attack on a police academy illustrates the fact that terrorists can still overcome the security measures in place in the city. These measures are currently being tested ahead of the Arab League summit at the end of March and while they are likely to help reduce the overall number of security incidents taking place in the city they should not be regarded as exhaustive.

South
The southern provinces remain far quieter than the central provinces but they nonetheless continue to see sporadic incidents. There were numerous police operations last week in cities such as Nassiriyah and Basrah. Dozens of suspected criminals and terrorists were arrested, highlighting the fact that threat groups still exist in the region, and caution still needs to be exercised.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Levels of violence fell in Iraq last week. At least 19 people were killed and 55 injured in nationwide incidents. This is a relatively low figure for the country. There was a decline in bombings and shootings countrywide. There were no suicide bombings or abductions reported, although a woman was rescued from captivity during a police raid in the south of the country.

North
The north of the country has been unusually quiet, with no major incidents recorded in Mosul city last week. Cross-border Turkish military operations have increased along the border. Ankara is in pursuit of PKK terrorists based in the isolated mountains in Kurdistan and fighting generally starts to increase as winter conditions ease. Further clashes should be expected over the coming weeks, although built-up areas will remain largely unaffected.

Centre
Last week’s violence was concentrated in the central provinces and Baghdad. Open sources currently indicate that al-Qaeda is planning to expand its presence in Iraq from its last major bastion in Mosul in the north, towards its former heartland in the central provinces. The provinces of Anbar, Salah ad-Din and Diyala in particular may see a rise in radical Islamist violence over the coming months as a result. The Iraqi security forces and Sahwah movement will be the most likely target of attacks in the shorter term.

South
The south of the country remains relatively quiet, although the police continue to arrest numerous suspected terrorists and criminals. During one such operation a kidnapped woman was rescued in Basrah, highlighting the fact that even in more stable parts of the country security threats persist.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Levels of violence fell in Iraq last week. At least 18 people were killed and 48 injured in nationwide incidents, making it the quietest week in at least two months. A total of 26 bomb attacks left six people dead and 41 injured. They were mainly low-yielding in terms of casualties and were likely designed to intimidate rather than cause mass casualties. A notable fall in the number of small arms fire attacks left seven people dead and four injured – a low weekly figure for the country. Activity was concentrated in Baghdad, Mosul and the province of Diyala. Kurdistan saw no incidents, while the south saw a number of police operations, one of which resulted in a violent clash with a terrorist in Basrah, which left a policeman dead and two injured.

North
There has been a rise in the number of sticky bombs (UVIEDs) used by militants over the past two weeks, mainly in the centre and north of the country. One of the latest victims of the tactic last week was a North Oil Company employee, killed in an attack on his car in Ta’mim province on 2 February. There was also at least one indirect fire attack (rockets and mortars) in Kirkuk but it did not cause any casualties.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
Baghdad and Diyala province were two of the most hazardous parts of the country last week, although the capital was still quieter than normal. A suicide bombing in Ba’qubah on 30 January killed three people and injured three more. The police in Baghdad also likely prevented a significant attack when they shot dead three people wearing suicide vests in the west of the city on 2 February.

South
Ongoing police operations targeting suspected terrorists and criminals continue to highlight the fact that the south of the country is not entirely ‘safe’. The police conducted raids targeting suspected kidnap groups in Basrah on 6 February. Operations targeted homes in the Abu al-Khasib and Qibla areas of the city, with at least one female captive reported freed by the authorities. Following a grenade attack during a police operation over a week ago in which one officer was killed and two more injured personnel are reminded that the relative quiet of Basrah belies the fact that threat groups still have a presence in and around the city.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

There was no significant increase or decrease in the number of attacks recorded in Iraq last week but the fatality figure doubled from the previous week. At least 101 people were killed and 216 injured in nationwide incidents. Conditions appear to have worsened since the US military pullout at the end of 2011 and the situation does not bode well for the coming months.

Tactics
A total of 30 bomb attacks left 41 people dead and 136 injured last week. An additional suicide bombing in Za’faraniyah district in Baghdad left at least 32 people dead and 71 injured while over the last few days a second suicide bombing has hit Diyala province. The number of small arms attacks has been high over the past fortnight and last week the tactic left 27 people dead and eight injured. There was a relatively low number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), with one person injured by the tactic. There were no reported kidnappings.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Geographic Distribution
Violence was concentrated in Baghdad, the central provinces, Kirkuk and Mosul. There was also a spike in violence in the towns of Tuz Khurmatu (Salah ad-Din province) and Ba’qubah (Diyala province). Conditions worsened in the capital, while there was a slight reduction in violence in the north of the country. The Kurdish region remained quiet, as did the south of the country, although a number of unknown blasts were reported in Basrah.

Sticky Bombs
Recent days have seen a rise in the number of sticky bombs reported in the country. Sticky bombs are also known as Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Devices (UVIEDs). They are usually magnetic in nature and are affixed to a target vehicle before being detonated – usually by remote control. A rise in the tactic was also reported in spring 2011, as outlined in this Iraq Business News Article. UVIEDs are normally used to kill a specifically targeted individual, such as a ministry employee or senior member of the Iraqi security forces. Personnel should inspect their vehicles before and after every journey, even minor ones, if they are in unsecure parts of the country. Look out for any suspicious devices around the underside of the vehicle as you approach it, and be aware of your surroundings. Most of the devices are detonated by remote control by an operator who is situated within eyesight.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

AKE has updated its security, travel and political risk guidance on the country on the website Global Intake. For further details or to purchase access to the report please visit the site here.