There was no significant increase or decrease in the number of attacks recorded in Iraq last week but the fatality figure doubled from the previous week. At least 101 people were killed and 216 injured in nationwide incidents. Conditions appear to have worsened since the US military pullout at the end of 2011 and the situation does not bode well for the coming months.

Tactics
A total of 30 bomb attacks left 41 people dead and 136 injured last week. An additional suicide bombing in Za’faraniyah district in Baghdad left at least 32 people dead and 71 injured while over the last few days a second suicide bombing has hit Diyala province. The number of small arms attacks has been high over the past fortnight and last week the tactic left 27 people dead and eight injured. There was a relatively low number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), with one person injured by the tactic. There were no reported kidnappings.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Geographic Distribution
Violence was concentrated in Baghdad, the central provinces, Kirkuk and Mosul. There was also a spike in violence in the towns of Tuz Khurmatu (Salah ad-Din province) and Ba’qubah (Diyala province). Conditions worsened in the capital, while there was a slight reduction in violence in the north of the country. The Kurdish region remained quiet, as did the south of the country, although a number of unknown blasts were reported in Basrah.

Sticky Bombs
Recent days have seen a rise in the number of sticky bombs reported in the country. Sticky bombs are also known as Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Devices (UVIEDs). They are usually magnetic in nature and are affixed to a target vehicle before being detonated – usually by remote control. A rise in the tactic was also reported in spring 2011, as outlined in this Iraq Business News Article. UVIEDs are normally used to kill a specifically targeted individual, such as a ministry employee or senior member of the Iraqi security forces. Personnel should inspect their vehicles before and after every journey, even minor ones, if they are in unsecure parts of the country. Look out for any suspicious devices around the underside of the vehicle as you approach it, and be aware of your surroundings. Most of the devices are detonated by remote control by an operator who is situated within eyesight.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

AKE has updated its security, travel and political risk guidance on the country on the website Global Intake. For further details or to purchase access to the report please visit the site here.

AKE has compiled statistics covering violence in Iraq over the course of 2011. The average week saw 56 attacks, many of which included bombings targeting civilians on an indiscriminate basis. The Iraqi security forces also suffered numerous attacks and will likely remain a major focus for militant groups now that the US military has withdrawn from the country. A total of 1716 explosive attacks took place, with 78 of them involving suicide bombers. Eighty-three people were also kidnapped, with many remaining in captivity or unaccounted for.

Weekly Fatalities in Iraq - figures fluctuated throughout 2011

Casualties
AKE also documented at least 2893 fatalities over the year. However, the true figure is almost certain to be much higher. AKE figures are collated on a ‘spot’ basis, i.e. they are taken within 24 hours of a violent incident and do not take into account those who have died later from their injuries. The monitoring agency Iraq Body Count recorded a rise in civilian casualties in 2011, with 4,059 documented fatalities over the course of the year.

Q4 Conditions
Between October and December Baghdad was the most violent part of the country. The capital saw an average of 2-3 attacks per day, accounting for 38 per cent of all the violence in the country over the period. The next most hazardous province was Ninawa where the city of Mosul saw an average of 1-2 attacks per day. Other violent areas included the volatile and socially-mixed province of Ta’mim (Kirkuk) as well as the central provinces of Anbar, Babil, Diyala and Salah ad-Din.

Frequency of Incidents Oct-Dec 2011

Greener Pastures
The Kurdish provinces were very quiet, although they saw a small number of incidents, including cross border military operations by Iran and Turkey and a rise in localised social tensions in certain areas. The south of Iraq also saw very little violence. The quietest provinces in the whole of the country were Muthanna and Najaf which saw no major incidents of violence at all in the last quarter of the year. Even the oil-rich and previously troubled  provinces of Basrah and Maysan were far quieter than their counterparts in the centre and north of the country.

The Energy Sector
Such improvement in the southern region bodes well for the numerous companies looking to do business in the area in 2012. However, with ongoing violence, including a significant bombing in central Basrah the day before an oil and gas conference last year, security will likely remain a major consideration over the coming months for the industry.

Planning for 2012
AKE maintains a real-time security, political and travel risk report on Iraq, which readers can purchase here.  It contains risk assessment material, projections on how the security and political risk environment is likely to evolve over the coming year, travel guidelines and advice, as well as an archived database of analysis on the country stretching back to 2003. You can also obtain a free trial of our emailed intelligence by filling in your details here.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, an international risk mitigation firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can follow him on twitter here, and you can view the company website here.

Conditions continue to fluctuate in Iraq. Levels of violence rose slightly last week, but in the absence of any major mass casualty attacks the overall number of fatalities fell from the previous week. At least 47 people were killed and 71 injured in nationwide incidents. Countrywide, a total of 25 bomb attacks left 16 people dead and 40 injured. An additional suicide bombing in Babil province left three people dead and 18 injured. A notable rise in the number of small arms attacks left 28 people dead and 13 injured. Two Iraqi nationals were abducted in Ta’mim province while the body of a British national, abducted in 2007, was finally handed over to the authorities. The central provinces experienced the lion’s share of violence. Iraqi Kurdistan saw no major incidents of violence at all,

North
The cities of Kirkuk and Mosul remain very hazardous, with almost daily attacks in both. The police and military remain the most common target of militant attacks in the non-Kurdish governed north of the country although civilians are also regularly being singled out because of their community backgrounds. Members of the Shabak community were hit by a bombing against an IDP camp in Bartala, near Mosul last week, for example.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
Militant and terrorist activity was concentrated in the centre of the country – particularly Diyala province around Ba’qubah. Baghdad also saw several attacks although the capital is currently quieter than normal. Indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) in the city left no casualties and only limited damage last week. Nonetheless, one of the attacks targeted the Turkish embassy, signalling a warning for nationals of the country that they are as much at risk of being singled out for attacks as other foreigners. For some time, Turkish nationals have been able to ‘slip under the radar’ in Iraq, blending in and travelling low profile. Nonetheless, Turkish nationals were amongst those abducted in the country last year and with worsening relations between Baghdad and Ankara Turkish organisations should perhaps consider reviewing their security measures in place at present. Low-profile measures will probably suit the majority of Turkish firms and nationals for now. Blending in should still be regarded as the best means of mitigating risk. Nonetheless, at least some protection should be regarded as better than nothing.

South
No major incidents were reported in the south of the country last week although unknown blasts were reported in Basrah on 25 January. Under-reporting remains a concern in the region and while it is certainly far quieter than the centre and north of Iraq it should not be regarded as ‘safe’.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

The Baghdad Company for Gas Turbines Ltd. has announced that it has won the contract to rehabilitate the Mullah Abdulla power plant in Baghdad.

The company’s managing Director, Mr. Mumtaz Rushdi, signed the deal for the 11units on Friday.

When completed later this year, the plant will provide more than 250 MW of power.

(Source: Baghdad Company for Gas Turbines)

The year 2012 has not begun well for Iraq. Levels of violence rose in the country last week, with at least 107 people killed and 300 injured in nationwide incidents. Several of the latest bombings have targeted pilgrims gathering in the centre of the country to mark Arba’een. The holy religious period is currently at its culmination, but attacks may continue over the coming days as worshippers return home following the conclusion.

North
In Ninawa province violence was concentrated in the city of Mosul while attacks were dispersed through the province of Ta’mim, where the contested city of Kirkuk is located. Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) territory also saw a number of violent incidents, but they were largely related to low-level criminality and local disputes rather than politics or terrorism. Perhaps the most notable incident in the north was an explosive attack directed against equipment belonging to Angolan energy firm Sonangol. No-one was harmed during the incident but the attack serves as a reminder that oil and gas firms remain an attractive target for militants in the country. They are a political pressure point for groups trying to send a signal to the government, as well as an emblematic representation of the international community. The fact that many of these firms work in parts of the country (and wider world) where operational risks can be quite high means that safety and security will continue to play a major role in the industry. Indeed, perhaps there is no sector better equipped for the rigours of a hostile environment than those already compliant with extensive industry-wide HSEQ legislation.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
Much of the violence last week was concentrated in the centre of the country. Security measures are currently heightened as the country marks the Shi’ah holy period of Arba’een. The event sees numerous Shi’ah pilgrims converging on mosques and shrines, particularly in Karbala. Terrorist attacks targeting the event should be anticipated over the coming days and large crowds should be avoided. At least four people were kidnapped in Iraq over the course of the week, including a Turkmen contractor who managed to escape within 24 hours of his abduction in northern Salah ad-Din province. Another kidnap victim, held for an unspecific period of time was also rescued during an operation in Diyala province. The police regularly manage to free kidnap victims in the country, which is re-assuring as regards their growing abilities. However, it is likely that many more kidnap cases go unreported and unsolved. Conditions are not as bad as during earlier years when the kidnap industry was widespread and highly lucrative, but it certainly remains a concern in the country. AKE has just released its quarterly kidnap report. If you would like to enquire about purchasing a copy please email intel@akegroup.com.

South
The southern region remains one of the quietest parts of the country with very few incidents of violence recorded last week. However, a suicide bomb targeted a gathering of Shi’ah pilgrims in Dhi Qar province, killing at least 44 people and injuring over 80. The attack was the first in Dhi Qar province in 10 weeks and the first suicide bombing in the south of the country in over four months. Security searches along the Baghdad-Nassiriyah highway were increased and are likely to remain fairly rigorous for at least a week as Arba’een draws to a close.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

The National Investment Commission (NIC) has announced the investment opportunity to construct a complete residential complex for the employees of the Shiite Endowments Directorate in Baghdad – Karrada district within a total area of (60) acres in accordance with the Investment law No. 13 of 2006 as amended and according to the requirements set out below:

1. The project includes the establishment of a residential complex of vertical eight-storey buildings each
2. Number of units to be implemented is (2400) housing units with areas of (125 m ², 175 m ², 225 m ²)
3. Constructing schools for the three phases with nurseries – medical centre – a shopping and marketing center – a cultural center – services (water, sewage, power stations and generators).
4. a playground, passengers roads, parking spaces and green areas in accordance with the in forced relevant standards of the Municipality of Baghdad and the Ministry of Housing and Construction.
5. The system of funding for this project will be supported through a bank that should be accredited by the Central Bank of Iraq to be a mediator between the beneficiary and the investor while the cost of each apartment and the payment mechanism is to be negotiated with the investing company and the mediator bank.

Investors who wish to apply for this investment opportunity can provide their technical, economic and financing plans and fill in the investment application form available on the website of the National Investment Commission and attach requirements described on page (7) of the same form.

Note: You can apply for this investment opportunity within one month from the date of publication of this announcement.

oss@investpromo.gov.iq

Levels of violence fell in Iraq over the past week, a welcome change following the spate of attacks on 22 December. At least 20 people were killed and 82 injured nationwide. This is at the lowest end of the usual figure range of 20 to 90 fatalities in any given seven-day period over recent months. In total, a fall in the number of countrywide bomb attacks left 12 people dead and 40 injured. A notable drop in small arms attacks left 10 people dead and three injured. A higher than normal number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) left five people injured.

North
There was a decline in violence in the north of the country but Ta’mim and Ninawa provinces were still the most afflicted parts of the country last week. The Kirkuk-Dibis area in Ta’mim province saw the most attacks, followed by the Mosul-Tal ‘Afar area in Ninawa province. Kurdistan remained quiet.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq, the last 6 months

Centre
Conditions were quieter than normal in the central provinces, with a scattering of incidents in Anbar, Diyala and Babil provinces. Salah ad-Din had slightly more attacks but still not sufficiently enough to cause undue alarm over the region. A number of open sources have warned that al-Qaeda cells are being re-activated in the region, particularly in Diyala province. While conditions have not yet escalated as a result of any such activation, caution should still be exercised and organisations should continue to monitor the situation closely. Last week, Baghdad also saw a decline in violence, but it was still the subject of a suicide bombing against the Interior Ministry earlier in the week and the security forces remain on guard after the bloody attacks of 22 December.

South
There were no major incidents of violence recorded in the south of the country last week. As usual, it remains far quieter than the central and northern provinces, but with emerging clashes between rival Shi’ah militant organisations in the country it should still be regarded as potentially volatile. Conditions could worsen now that the US military has withdrawn from the country. Many are concerned that groups with links to Iranian elements may in particular step up their efforts to consolidate their position in the region. Western organisations in particular should continue to regard security as a major requirement for any sustainable business operations in the south.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Summary
Levels of violence rose in Iraq over the past week, with dozens of people killed and injured in a series of attacks in Baghdad on 22 December. Meanwhile, the political crisis between senior politicians also endures, posing a significant risk to overall national stability and raising the possibility of major internal strife over the course of the coming year.

Statistics
In total, at least 105 people were killed and 253 injured in nationwide violence last week, which was concentrated in the capital, as well as the northern cities of Kirkuk and Mosul. At least 48 separate bomb attacks left 82 people dead and 228 injured. Small arms fire attacks left 14 people dead and 13 injured.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months. Note the notable rise in the number of incidents reported last week.

Kidnap Risk
Last week the US authorities issued a statement warning of the imminent risk of kidnap posed to American nationals. Evidently kidnap remains a major risk in the country and foreign personnel are advised not to become complacent. Iraqis continue to be abducted on a regular basis. The Iraqi authorities managed to free two kidnap victims in separate incidents in the north and centre of the country last week and dozens more are likely to be taken over the coming months. If you would like to receive AKE’s quarterly kidnap brief please complete your details here.

Baghdad Violence
There were several attacks over the course of 22 December in Baghdad, which left up to 70 people dead and almost 200 injured. The bombings, which were later claimed by al-Qaeda in Iraq took place in the districts of Abu Dshir, Adhimiyah, Allawi, Amil, Bayaa, Dourah, Ghazaliyah, Harthiyah, Jihad, Karradah, Mansour, New Baghdad, Qaddisiyah, Qahirah, Sha’ab, Shu’lah, Shurtah and Yarmouk as well as along Abu Nawas street, Maghrib street and Mohammed al-Qassim highway. Targets included a garage, school, hospital and the integrity commission office in Karradah, as well as gatherings of civilians, targeted on an indiscriminate basis.

Warning Signs
Previous AKE reports indicated that the authorities were expecting another mass-casualty terrorist attack and the country was indeed statistically overdue. What needs to be determined now is whether or not this latest spate of attacks, following the US military departure, signals a change in the tempo of violence. Organisations should review their security measures in light of the potential for a deterioration in conditions and be prepared for the frequency of attacks to increase from now on. Even organisations working in normally well patrolled districts such as Karradah, Jadriyah and even the International/Green Zone are reminded that they are not immune from risk. Indeed, it is precisely these districts which should be regarded as possible targets, not least because of their high profile and political weight.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.