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Iraq Business News is delighted to bring you the latest Iraq Market Tracker report from Dunia Frontier Consultants. The market tracker highlights the activities and market performance of a basket of publicly traded firms who derive a significant percentage of their revenues from operations in Iraq, but are traded on foreign exchanges: a proxy Iraq play as much as practicable. It also identifies and analyzes the primary political and security events that occur in country that have market-moving implications.

Click here to access the report.

Companies Mentioned:

DNO, ExxonMobil, Genel Energy

Action Calls:

• Barzani speech takes aim at Iraqi government: Likely indicates negotiations, but don’t expect break on Exxon until after Arab League summit.
• DNO, Genel Energy hail success in Iraq: AWith their first earnings announcement under their belt, could Genel be better play than DNO?

Headlines:

• Attacks and precautions as Baghdad gears up for Arab League: Al Qaeda’s big chance to discredit Maliki is next week – look for action from both sides.
• Sadr holds major demonstration in Basra: Sadr shows continuing strength Arab street, but sidesteps Maliki’s show in Baghdad.

Calendar Events Discussed:

• 29 March – Arab League summit
• April – National Reconciliation Conference

Click here to access the report, or to add your email address to Dunia’s mailing list to receive the Iraq Market Tracker via email.

As security measures are heightened ahead of the Arab League Summit in Baghdad levels of violence fell in Iraq last week with 26 people killed and 22 injured in nationwide incidents. This was a drop by half from the previous week and a very low figure in general for the country.

However, a spate of attacks swept the country on 20 March, killing at least 50 people and injuring over 250. The bombings have been claimed by al-Qaeda in Iraq and as analysed on Iraq Business News were likely an attempt to discredit the government. Many are now questioning the security measures put in place ahead of the summit although at the time of writing the event is still set to go ahead. To cancel it at this stage would constitute a major loss of face.

Managing Traffic
The government has announced that a public holiday will begin on 25 March, lasting beyond the course of the event. Official buildings will be closed and traffic congestion in Baghdad will be reduced as a result. This will make it easier for the security forces to manage the traffic and search more vehicles moving around the city. This is turn will hopefully make it more difficult for terrorists to infiltrate, but travel conditions will still be difficult for the personnel who continue to work in the capital.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months. Note the decline in violence over the past week. Next week's bar will likely see a notable rise.

Violence Last Week
In the run-up to the latest assault conditions were relatively quiet countrywide. Only six bomb attacks were recorded last week, which is less than a third of the usual weekly figure. For a change, more people were killed in shooting attacks than in bomb blasts, with 18 people shot dead and 14 injured against only seven killed and eight injured by explosive devices over the course of the week.

Geographical Distribution
Attacks were concentrated in the northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, with a scattering of attacks in districts surrounding the capital. Basrah also saw a demonstration on Monday as local residents and attendees from elsewhere in the southern provinces gathered to complain of a lack of development and high unemployment in the oil-rich region.

A number of blasts have also been reported in the city although they appear to have slipped under the radar of in-country news coverage. No casualties have been reported but security has been increased around central Basrah in response and personnel are reminded that conditions are neither ‘safe’ nor ‘stable’ in what should otherwise be considered a city with strong economic opportunities. Companies are still encouraged to look to the city as a good investment, but proper risk mitigation measures need to be put in place prior to any serious investment.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Three sports stadiums are set to be built in Baghdad under plans announced by Kamel Braihi, the director of the engineering and technical department in Iraq’s Ministry of Youth and Sports, reports AKnews.

He said the three stadiums, to be built to international standards, will be constructed in Sadr City, Rusafa and Tajiyyat.

The contract for the stadium in Sadr City (pictured) has been awarded to the Turkish company Nurol. The 30,000 seat venue will be completed in two and a half years at a cost of 116bn IQD ($99.5m).

The 30,000 seat Rusafa stadium will be built by the Spanish company Tri Arena in approximately one year and eight months at a cost of 114bn IQD ($98m).

The stadium in Tajiyyat will accommodate 60,000 spectators, and will be built by Iranian company Baland Baya in roughly two and a half years at a cost of 227bn IQD ($195m).

(Source: AKnews)

Levels of violence fell in Iraq last week, although the welcome trend was cut short on Sunday night. Militants wearing security force uniforms shot dead at least 27 police officers in a well-planned attack in Haditha. Not including this total, at least 36 people were killed and 41 injured in nationwide incidents last week.

February Trends
In general, levels of violence crept up in Iraq towards the end of February, although in review it was a relatively quiet month. The authorities reported a total of 151 fatalities, including 91 civilians, 39 policemen and 21 soldiers killed by militants during the month. Last week a drop by almost half in the total of bomb attacks left 19 people dead and 35 injured countrywide. There was no major change in the number of small arms attacks reported which left 11 people dead and three injured. Indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) left two dead and three injured.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Geographic spread
Baghdad remains quieter than normal, although it still accounted for several of the week’s attacks, as did the northern city of Mosul where conditions appear to have gradually worsened once again after an unusual quiet period over recent weeks. The south of the country remains quiet, with many expressing optimism over the potential for growth and development in the region. Nonetheless security risks and the potential for wider unrest persists.

There were two shooting incidents reported in the normally secure Kurdish region last week, although they are believed to have been related to personal disputes rather than politics or ideology. At least one person was also killed in a landmine explosion to the north-east of Kirkuk, highlighting the ongoing risk posed by unexploded ordnance – even in secure parts of KRG territory.

Kidnap risk
Perhaps more positively was a police operation on 6 March which reportedly led to the freeing of a hostage civilian held in Ta’mim province. While the Iraqi security forces continue to report successes in tracking down kidnap victims whilst also detaining their captors, the issue of kidnap for ransom remains a major one which personnel need to face, regardless of whether they are foreign or Iraqi. Foreigners in particular remain attractive from a kidnapper’s point of view because of the potentially large ransom they might be able to negotiate in return for their release. Proper risk mitigation measures therefore need to be in place prior to doing business in the country.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

A series of night time raids starting late on Sunday killed at least 27 police officers in the Anbar town of Hadithah. The police continue to suffer regular attacks but this latest incident appears particularly brutal. In the month of February official sources report that at least 39 policemen were killed at the hands of militants but this latest attack has left two thirds of that number killed in the space of just a few hours.

The assailants are reported to have been wearing official army uniforms while open sources also reported that they were driving vehicles with Ministry of the Interior markings. If accurate this could indicate a number of things but it does not necessarily denote any official involvement in the killings.

Uniforms
Iraqi security force uniforms have been widely available in parts of the country for years. While the government has previously tried to restrict the private sale of uniforms it is nonetheless still possible for militant groups to obtain them on the black market. Vehicle registrations can also be fabricated, particularly in isolated areas where there are fewer checkpoint searches and the necessary administrative resources to verify vehicles on the road.

Militants in the past have also stolen uniforms and vehicles from the authorities so as to create disguises for attacks. During the height of the insurgency ambulances were even hijacked on occasion so that militants could smuggle in large amounts of explosives to conduct attacks in crowded city centre areas, often in the aftermath of an initial smaller attack where police and paramedics had gathered. Killing such specialised professionals had a devastating impact on the response capabilities of the Iraqi authorities.

Motives
By attacking the police the militants will lower morale amongst the force and convince others not to join the profession. The fewer police officers there are, the easier it is for terrorists to operate. This has made it a regular target of groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq for years.

Whoever is behind the late night killings, the incident will likely stoke further frustration amongst the Sunni community that they are not being suitably protected by the government. At a time when members of the Sahwah organisation still face employment uncertainty there is evidently a need for greater imposition of state security in many parts of the country. Many civilians in the most seriously affected areas are only going to question the ability of the authorities in light of the latest incident. There may now be low level protests in majority Sunni towns in response to a perceived lack of protection in the area.

Current Trends
Anbar province has seen an average of 4-5 attacks per week so far this year, making it one of the more hazardous parts of the country. However, incidents have been concentrated mainly in the towns of Fallujah, Karma and Ramadi in the east of the province. Hadithah and more sparsely populated west of the province have been much quieter, although with old smuggling routes, terrorist sympathisers and a lack of police resources there are evidently still threat groups operating in the region.

In general, levels of violence crept up in Iraq towards the end of February, although in total it was a relatively quiet month. The authorities reported a total of 151 fatalities, including 91 civilians, 39 policemen and 21 soldiers. Terrorist attacks are likely to persist in March despite an expected heightening of security measures ahead of the Arab League summit. With media attention on the country ahead of the high profile event it would be a good opportunity for terrorists to engage in violence so as to discredit the Iraqi authorities and raise the profile for their various political demands.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. If you are travelling to Iraq to cover the Arab League summit you can access AKE’s travel risk intelligence website Global Intake here. You can also obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Baghdad Provincial Council has allocated 20 billion IQD (almost $17 million) from its 2012 budget to install sophisticated surveillance cameras across the province.

Baghdad Council member Mohammed al-Rabee said there are not enough cameras in Baghdad currently and the stardard are poor, with cameras operating only for limited periods rather than around the clock.

This has paved the way for terrorists to continuously attack Baghdad with car bombs and improvised explosive devices, he added.

(Source: AKnews)

(Photo credit: Hustvedt)

After weeks of declining violence in February, the number of attacks rose once again in Iraq over the last week of the month. At least 53 people were killed and 245 injured in nationwide incidents, which is moderately high, albeit not as high as the figures of over 100 recorded fatalities in some of the weeks at the beginning of the year. There was a rise in the total number of bombings reported and a consistent number of shootings, but more positively there were no kidnappings or indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) recorded. The gradual decline in attacks in February followed by the latest rise is illustrated in the graph below.

North
Mosul in the north has been unusually quiet for at least two weeks, raising concerns that militants in the area have been looking elsewhere to conduct attacks. The spate of bombings which took place around the centre of the country last week could indicate that they have turned their attention to the heartland of the country, although there are also ongoing fears that some of the militants have headed across the border into neighbouring Syria.

Centre
The central region saw the majority of attacks last week, especially around Ba’qubah and Baghdad. Countrywide, a rise in the total number of bomb attacks last week left 39 people dead and 242 injured, but most of the incidents took place in Baghdad and the central provinces. A steady number of small arms fire attacks left 14 people dead and three injured, notably in the capital.

The region suffered a number of attacks on 23 February, a day when co-ordinated bombings struck cities between Hillah and Mosul. Bombs hit Salah ad-Din, Diyala and Babil provinces, as well as Baghdad. In total, at least 50 people were killed and dozens injured, with incidents largely targeting the security forces. However, civilian and judicial interests were also singled out.

The attacks have since been claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq, the Sunni militant organisation affiliated with al-Qaeda, and they may have been timed to coincide with two events. Firstly, the Iraqi government announced that the security situation had improved in the country, so foreign leaders would have no reason to doubt being able to travel to Baghdad for the Arab League summit at the end of March. The attacks were therefore possibly aimed at discrediting the state, not just amongst the Iraqi public, but also amidst the wider region.

Car bombs remain a concern for politicians, travellers and Iraqis alike

Secondly, many (but not all) of the country’s politicians had gathered in parliament on the same day to debate and endorse the federal budget. It was a high-profile event attracting media attention, which was undoubtedly distracted by the numerous attacks taking place around the capital and wider country at the same time. The fact that politicians agreed to spend a significant amount of money on armoured cars appears to have been a particularly controversial decision made on the day.

South
While the southern provinces remain quieter than the north and centre of the country there are nonetheless ongoing hairline cracks in the veneer of overall security in the region. Local sentiment remains outwardly optimistic and positive towards the foreign investment arriving in the region but intra-Shi’ah community and political tensions persist and organisations still need to take security into strong consideration when working in the area. At present, there are rising tensions between rival Shi’ah political organisations, with at least one percussion explosive device detonated outside the home of a political figure north of Basrah last week. Demonstrators also tried to storm a municipal building in Nassiriyah on 24 February in protest at the ongoing closure of a political party office in the city. The security forces remain capable of dealing with low level unrest and sporadic political violence but if unrest gains momentum the security situation could deteriorate, potentially at short notice, over the coming months or even years. Amid the uncertainty, AKE has issued new travel risk analysis, guidance and advice on the country which can be accessed here.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Flights between Baghdad and the northern city of Mosul have resumed after nine years of disruption, reports AKnews.

An Iraqi Airways flight carried 40 passengers from Mosul to Baghdad and authorities plan to launch flights between the two cities on a regular basis.

The Director of Mosul Airport, Sardar Hasan, said there will be two flights per week between Baghdad and Mosul form now on. The price per passenger will be 85,000 IQD ($70).

Mosul airport was used by the US forces as a military base from 2003, but US forces handed it over to Iraqi civil aviation authorities last year.

(Source: AKnews)