The year 2012 has not begun well for Iraq. Levels of violence rose in the country last week, with at least 107 people killed and 300 injured in nationwide incidents. Several of the latest bombings have targeted pilgrims gathering in the centre of the country to mark Arba’een. The holy religious period is currently at its culmination, but attacks may continue over the coming days as worshippers return home following the conclusion.

North
In Ninawa province violence was concentrated in the city of Mosul while attacks were dispersed through the province of Ta’mim, where the contested city of Kirkuk is located. Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) territory also saw a number of violent incidents, but they were largely related to low-level criminality and local disputes rather than politics or terrorism. Perhaps the most notable incident in the north was an explosive attack directed against equipment belonging to Angolan energy firm Sonangol. No-one was harmed during the incident but the attack serves as a reminder that oil and gas firms remain an attractive target for militants in the country. They are a political pressure point for groups trying to send a signal to the government, as well as an emblematic representation of the international community. The fact that many of these firms work in parts of the country (and wider world) where operational risks can be quite high means that safety and security will continue to play a major role in the industry. Indeed, perhaps there is no sector better equipped for the rigours of a hostile environment than those already compliant with extensive industry-wide HSEQ legislation.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
Much of the violence last week was concentrated in the centre of the country. Security measures are currently heightened as the country marks the Shi’ah holy period of Arba’een. The event sees numerous Shi’ah pilgrims converging on mosques and shrines, particularly in Karbala. Terrorist attacks targeting the event should be anticipated over the coming days and large crowds should be avoided. At least four people were kidnapped in Iraq over the course of the week, including a Turkmen contractor who managed to escape within 24 hours of his abduction in northern Salah ad-Din province. Another kidnap victim, held for an unspecific period of time was also rescued during an operation in Diyala province. The police regularly manage to free kidnap victims in the country, which is re-assuring as regards their growing abilities. However, it is likely that many more kidnap cases go unreported and unsolved. Conditions are not as bad as during earlier years when the kidnap industry was widespread and highly lucrative, but it certainly remains a concern in the country. AKE has just released its quarterly kidnap report. If you would like to enquire about purchasing a copy please email intel@akegroup.com.

South
The southern region remains one of the quietest parts of the country with very few incidents of violence recorded last week. However, a suicide bomb targeted a gathering of Shi’ah pilgrims in Dhi Qar province, killing at least 44 people and injuring over 80. The attack was the first in Dhi Qar province in 10 weeks and the first suicide bombing in the south of the country in over four months. Security searches along the Baghdad-Nassiriyah highway were increased and are likely to remain fairly rigorous for at least a week as Arba’een draws to a close.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

The Provincial Council of Thi Qar [Dhi Qar] has announced that the ministry of electricity has approved the award of a contract to build a 500-megawatt power station to a local company.

Aswat al-Iraq reports that the council expects the work to start this month, after verifying the company’s records and abilities.

The contract had previously been withdrawn after the resignation of ex-electricity minister Raad Shalal, as Deputy Premier for Energy Affairs Hussein Shahristani cancelled all contracts with Iraqi companies.

There are two power generation stations in Thi Qar. The first was built by a Russian company in 1978 and has a capacity of 800 megawatts, and the second is the gas powered station with 40 megawatt capacity.

(Source: Aswat al-Iraq)

Italy’s energy giant Eni is still interested in investing in the Nassiriya oilfield, Italy’s ambassador to Iraq has said.

Ambassador Gerardo Caranti was visiting Iraq to evaluate the progress of several projects and to study future suggestions.

“We have several projects in Iraq at a cost of more than $2 billion,” he told Aswat al-Iraq news agency.

“Eni still interested in investing in Thi-Qar [Dhi Qar], mainly in the Nassiriya oilfield, as my country imports 15% of Iraq’s oil output,” he said, adding that “its important to complete old projects before starting new ones.”

Regarding Italian companies’ investments in the province, the Ambassador said “big companies have security personnel and are able too come and work in Nassiriya and our government is ready to support small companies to invest in Thi-Qar, mainly those which are relatively safe.”

He also said that Italy would open a consulate in Basra.

(Source: Aswat al-Iraq)

Overview

Conditions continue to worsen in Iraq, with civil unrest gripping cities from Arbil in the north to Basrah in the south over the past week. As well as demonstrations in Kurdistan there has also been a lesser reported rise in ethnic tensions around the city of Kirkuk. The past week has also seen a spate of incidents running along a belt of towns from eastern Anbar province to western Diyala province in the centre of the country. The south has also seen a scattering of militant activity, comprising of bombings and rocket attacks, primarily targeting US military interests.

North

In the ethnically divided city of Kirkuk there has been a rise in clashes between armed Arab, Kurd and Turkmen residents over recent weeks. At present Arab and Turkmen sensitivities are being exacerbated by the presence of a significant Kurdish Peshmerga security force on the northern boundaries of the city. The Kurdish authorities state that the force is in the area to maintain stability but many non-Kurdish residents fear the force has ulterior motives as it patrols the outskirts of what many regard as a rightfully Kurdish city.

Discontent with unemployment, nepotism and a lack of political reform continues to prompt demonstrations in Kurdish cities in the north. The response from the authorities has been to deploy Peshmerga forces to restrict traffic and control crowds, occasional resorting to the use of violence to achieve this. However, political concessions will have to be made if the demonstrations continue and become more violent.

Finally, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) released a statement on 28 February announcing it had called-off a six-month ceasefire, raising fears of renewed violence in the Qandil Mountains. However, if the coming weeks see a rise in clashes it is not likely to affect the majority of business interests in the region. Activity will likely remain concentrated around isolated parts of the border.

Centre

Like many parts of the country, the central provinces saw bouts of unrest over the past week, particularly on Friday. However, the majority of incidents did not involve fatalities, unlike the protests in the north and south of the country. Indeed the imposition of heightened security measures in Baghdad meant that overall violent activity was particularly low in the city.

Violent Unrest in Iraq

Unrest aside, however, the central region was blighted with a number of more bloody terrorist attacks over the course of the week. A series of suicide bombings left numerous people dead, with the police suffering the majority of attacks. Several shootings also targeted individuals deemed to be pro-state and anti-radical, such as Sahwah members and at least one mosque imam. In the end, it was the bloodiest week in the central province since Ramadan in 2010.

South

Even the more quiet south of Iraq saw its share of violent protests last week, with a fatality reported at a rally in Baghdad and numerous injuries in Amarah (Maysan province) and Nassiriyah (Dhi Qar province). Three bomb blasts were also reported around Basrah city, with armour-piercing devices used on at least one occasion. The majority of targets were US military convoys, although private security vehicles – and by default the clients they escort – are also at potential risk, particularly if they travel high profile. Blending in with the use of low visibility vehicles may be a more preferable option in the region.

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John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here

You can also follow John Drake on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

Overview

Levels of violence have been rising in Iraq over the past four weeks. The increase has been gradual, but consistent and last week saw more than 40 attacks reported countrywide for the first time since mid-December. Recent days have seen a particularly concerning rise in militant activity and social tensions in the northern city of Kirkuk. There have also been a number of attacks on Shi’ah worshippers in Salah ad-Din province. Demonstrations calling for an improvement in public services are also ongoing in many urban areas of the country, with violence reported today at a protest in Wassit province.

Weekly Violence in Iraq

North

While Mosul has suffered the majority of northern violence over recent months, the past few days have seen a worrying rise in the number of attacks taking place in Kirkuk. On 15 February three Turkish nationals were abducted in the city by unknown gunmen. These are the first foreign nationals to have been abducted in the country since a US national of Iraqi origin was snatched by Asa’ib Ahl ul-Haq in Baghdad in January 2010. Further analysis on the latest kidnap trends in Iraq can be found here. A further three Iraqi nationals were abducted in Kirkuk over the past week. One of them, a Christian, is still being held, while of the other two, one was found dead and the other alive but injured. The ethnically mixed and contested oil-rich city has been a smouldering crisis waiting to happen for years. Conditions have been quieter than normal over the past few months, but inter-communal animosity between the city’s Kurdish, Arab and Turkmen residents lingers on. 2011 may see a deterioration in community relations and a subsequent rise in violence, while concerns have been raised over a possible security gap once the US military withdraws on 31 December.

Centre

Last week saw a number of attacks on Shi’ah worshippers in the province of Salah ad-Din, including in the holy city of Samarra. A bomb blast against the revered Askari mosque in the city in 2006 helped catalyse a major escalation in sectarian violence in the country and it is likely that the Sunni terrorists responsible for the latest attacks are intent on emulating a similar worsening in conditions. In Diyala province the police have recovered a large number of bodies in recent days. They are believed to belong to the victims of radical Islamist violence which was rife in the province prior to 2008. Organisations such as al-Qaeda in Iraq have been significantly weakened since then, although such groups still have a presence in the region. Members and sympathisers continue to be arrested in police operations in Baghdad, Ba’qubah and other cities in the centre of the country. Meanwhile, demonstrations inspired by events elsewhere in the Middle East are also taking place in Iraq. Unlike Egypt, Tunisia and Bahrain however, the Iraqi protesters are demanding an improvement in employment conditions and the supply of public services (particularly electricity). The authorities have heightened their security measures around urban areas in Anbar province in anticipation of possible protest violence but the majority of events have so far passed peacefully. The main exception to this so far has been an incident in Wassit province. Here protestors stormed the provincial government headquarters in Kut, setting fire to buildings. Private security guards are reported to have responded by opening fire on the crowd, killing at least one person. Further analysis on the latest unrest in Iraq can be found here.

South

The south has also seen its share of demonstrations over the past week, with residents of cities including Basrah, Nassiriyah and Samawah turning out to demand improvements in employment rates, electricity supplies and water services. The majority of these gatherings have remained peaceful but they should be avoided nonetheless as they could turn violent at short notice. Note that an explosive device was defused west of Basrah city on 7 February. On 13 February a bomb on the main road between Zubayr and the border crossing at Safwan also killed one person and injured two. The police are conducting an investigation but it is being speculated that the victims may have been militants who accidentally detonated the device when trying to lay it. On 10 February in Dhi-Qar province four rockets landed on Imam Ali airbase near the southern city of Nassiriyah. No casualties were reported but personnel staying on fortified facilities in the south of the country should review their safety measures nonetheless. Rockets and mortars pose the greatest risk to facilities which might otherwise be deemed well protected and ‘secure’. There are no grounds for complacency in Iraq and personnel staying at such facilities are advised to familiarise themselves with their emergency procedures. Know where your nearest shelters and medical kits are and be prepared to take cover at very short notice.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here.

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here

You can also follow John Drake on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

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Overview

Levels of violence rose last week in Iraq as Shi’ahs marked al-’Ashura. Pilgrims travelling to the holy city of Karbala were attacked on several occasions, in Baghdad and the central provinces, although Karbala itself saw little in the way of violence. The police arrested numerous suspected militants ahead of the event and many potentially deadly suicide attacks were prevented by the authorities. Over the coming days security measures are likely to be lessened, although terrorist attacks aimed at discrediting the government-formation process are still a possibility.

North

For the last two weeks the north of the country has been relatively quiet. Even Mosul and Kirkuk have seen fewer attacks than normal, while Iraqi Kurdistan has remained relatively trouble free as usual. Many Christians have fled to the Kurdish-administered north amid persecution in Baghdad and Mosul. While this migration constitutes a crisis for the Christian community in Iraq, it is also testament to the far greater levels of safety present in Kurdistan.

Central

Levels of violence rose in the central provinces last week, with attacks targeting Shi’ah pilgrims on their way to Karbala for al-’Ashura. The Iraqi police were also targeted, likely in retaliation from recent operations. Numerous arrests have been made over the last few weeks, and many attacks, including potentially devastating suicide attacks, were prevented by police activity. However, there will be a limit to the amount of time that the latest detainees will be held, and when they are released some may continue to pose a security risk. At least one suicide bomber in December is believed to have been a former inmate released under an amnesty.

South

Last week was relatively quiet in the south of Iraq although there were several indirect fire (rocket and mortar) attacks on US military bases. A vehicle laden with explosives was also recovered by the authorities in Basrah city. Two Iranian nationals were amongst those detained with the vehicle, highlighting concerns about cross-border smuggling of weaponry and militants from Iran. Otherwise, a number of people were injured in tribal clashes in the north of Dhi Qar province on 14 December. Tribal sensitivities are highly significant for companies working in rural parts of the south. Those intent on finding out about current issues in southern communities are advised to conduct due diligence and investigations to ensure that business operations are not fomenting localised discontent. For further information on due diligence in Iraq please contact the AKE Intelligence department at intel@akegroup.com or +44 (0) 207 816 5454.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found at www.akegroup.com/iraq

You can also follow John on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

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The governor of the province of Dhi-Qar held has announced that 17 infrastructure projects worth more than 185 billion dinars [$160m] have been granted to local companies, according to Aswat al-Iraq.

Taleb al-Hassan told the news agency that “the province will implement another batch of projects in the regions and municipalities which have not witnessed any project recently”.

(Source: Aswat al-Iraq)

Iraq’s oil ministry announced on Friday that it would begin drilling for oil in the southern Gharraf oil fields by the end of the year.

Officials said initial production levels of 50,000 barrels per day from eight oil wells are expected.

Malaysia’s state-owned oil company Petronas and the Japan Petroleum Exploration Company (Japex) signed a deal with the Iraqi government late last year to develop the Gharraf oil fields.

The deal envisages 20 oil wells with an estimated daily output of 230,000 barrels over 20 years.

Iraq’s state oil company holds a minority share in the partnership.

Petronas has also just announced that it will train 60 Iraqi engineers in Malaysia to work on the Gharraf project.

(Sources: Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Rigzone, Azzaman)