The big news this week in Iraq was the announcement of Nouri al-Maliki’s new cabinet, and, unusually for such a decision, the fact that it was made several days ahead of the legal deadline.

Nevertheless, BBC reports that Iraq now has the dubious honour of holding the world record for the longest period between an election and the formation of a government. Let’s hope it has been worth the wait.

But while every effort appears to have been taken to accommodate the various political factions, it is notable that there is only one woman on the list of 42 new ministers.

One also has to wonder whether 42 ministries is really the most efficient way to run a country like Iraq, but of course efficiency will have taken second place to other considerations during the negotiations.

Criticisms aside, this is, as US President Barack Obama said, “a major step forward”. “Iraq faces important challenges, but the Iraqi people can also seize a future of opportunity.”

Let us wish the new government every success in its efforts to seize that opportunity and re-build the country.

Iraq Business News and its owners, Upper Quartile and AAIB, would like to take this opportunity to send Season’s Greetings all our readers at this time.

By Tariq Abdell, Founder & Chairman, Mesopotamia Insight.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The end of U.S. combat operations in Iraq presents a unique opportunity for a new beginning in U.S.- Iraq’s relationship. However, given Iraq’s crippling challenges and U.S. sluggish economy, the success of a such strategic partnership is contingent upon the political will of both U.S. and Iraqi governments, the support of the international community, and the genuine commitment of the international oil companies – Iraq’s biggest investors.

Drawing on past experiences, the stakeholders (U.S. government, Iraqi government, UNDP, World Bank, international oil companies, etc…) need to devise a concerted post-conflict reconstruction strategy, Marshall plan type, that is capable of  a) averting the collapse of State’s institutions and b) creating the conditions for a sustainable socio-economic recovery. However, before undertaking a such colossal challenge, stakeholders need to build a strategic framework defining  the mission’s objectives (attainable and realistic), organizational design (steering committee, for instance) , stakeholders’ roles and responsibilities, needed resources, and performance metrics.

Respectively, I’ll explore key stakeholders’ roles and responsibilities in Iraq’s post-conflict reconstruction  as it’s mandated by their respective missions.

Iraqi government

In this process, Iraqi government should be treated as an equal partner that is fully responsible and accountable of its actions before its constituents and the international community. Consequently, the new elected government needs to formulate a comprehensive development strategy in concert with key stakeholders, including the planning for the impending multi-billion dollar mega-reconstruction projects, and the followings are some key areas of common interest and cooperation:

• National reconciliation to fend off ethno-sectarian strife and political violence.
• Reining in corruption and enhancing institutions efficiency.
• Providing basic services (e.g., drinking water, electricity, running sewer, health care, education, etc….)
• Promoting rule of law and human rights.
• Tackling  illiteracy challenges, a serious threat to the country’s future.
• Creating jobs, higher unemployment rates are source of societal and political upheavals e.g., organized  crime, militias, etc….
• Revamping severely languished infrastructure.
• Reviving the country strategic industries to curtail its dependence on petrodollars.

U.S. Government 

To ensure the success of its new mission “New Dawn” in Iraq, the U.S. needs to learn from its past mistakes – $53 billion of unfinished or poorly executed projects– and capitalize on its acquired knowledge and understanding of Iraq’s ethno-sectarian fabric, political landscape, and socio-economic dynamics. Thus, U.S. Department of State’s Iraq strategic partnership office ISPO and USAID  should play a crucial role in coordinating and overseeing the reconstruction efforts in concert with other stakeholders e.g., Iraqi government, UNDP, etc….

United Nations Development Programme

Given UNDP extensive experience –Honest broker– in conflict and post-conflict zones, the UNDP is well-positioned to promote and oversee national reconciliation, rule of law, and rehabilitate State’s decadent institutions to enhance efficiency and  inclusiveness – Hiring and promotions are merit-based and not politically dictated.

World Bank

Given the decay of Iraq’s financial institutions  as result of decades of wars and sanctions, the World Bank’s role,  key partner in this reconstruction efforts, is to provide post-conflict reconstruction expertise, financial and technical assistance,  which are key ingredients for a sustainable development.

International oil companies (IOCs)

Given the current Peak Oil and IOCs vested interest in a stable and secure Iraq, IOCs should play a major role in this reconstruction efforts. Oil sector is the engine of Iraq’s economy  -%90 of government revenue. Nonetheless, the oil sector challenges are hampering the country’s economic recovery:   

• Major oil fields require billions of dollars for rehabilitation and development as result of decades of wars and sanctions.
• Current oil workforce is in desperate need of training and technological know-how.
• Oil sector is a highly politicized field.

Thus, given Iraq’s vast reserves of oil and gas,  IOCs’ should help revamp the oil sector swiftly by introducing technological know-how, the industry best practices, and fostering local workforce. With such perspicacious initiatives, IOCs will help enhance the oil sector efficiency, increase production, spur economic recovery;  and, eventually, countervail some of deep-seated distrust and apprehension.

In sum, in the absence of a clear post-conflict reconstruction strategy, Iraq’s convoluted political impasse and the international community inaction — lack of political will– are recipes for a prolonged political instability and ethno-sectarian strife; subsequently, jeopardizing all the hard-earned successes (e.g., fair elections, strong Army, etc…) and exacerbating  geopolitical tensions. Moreover, given the endured sacrifices, thus far,  in blood and treasure — thousands of lives and over $ 751 billion war price tag — it’s imperative to stand by Iraq in these difficult times to prevent it from reverting to a military dictatorship or ,worst, religious tyranny.  In his speech to congress (12th March, 1947), President Truman exquisitely puts it when he warns us against lose of hope, destitution, and their grim outcomes chiefly chaos and tyranny:

“… The seeds of totalitarian regimes are nurtured by misery and want. They spread and grow in the evil soil of poverty and strife. They reach their full potential when the hope of a people for  a better life has died. We must keep that hope alive. If we falter in our leadership, we may endanger the peace of the world – and we shall surely endanger the welfare of our own nation…”

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

 The author, Tariq Abdell, is an Iraq analyst, and Founder & Chairman of Mesopotamia Insight

He can be contacted at: atariq2000@hotmail.com

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Followed on twitter: http://www.twitter.com/atariqx

By Tariq Abdell, Founder & Chairman, Mesopotamia Insight.

Iraq’s recent upsurge of violence, fueled by political impasse and regional geopolitics – Notably Iran’s Mullacracy suicidal ambitions, could easily undermine its fragile democracy and, thus, plunging the country into a vicious downward spiral. The ongoing ignominious political ploys are creating a toxic environment compelling the majority of the Iraqi people to distrust the legitimacy of their government and its institutions, a dangerous threshold that could hastily throw the country back into its darkest years of lawlessness and sectarian violence (06 – 07) or “Square 1″ as Mr. Al-Maliki depicted in his recent interview with the New York times.

Mr. Al-Maliki’s decisive victory against the militia in early 2008 “Charge of knights” operations had helped the country recover some of its pride and hope. Moreover, this critical milestone was followed by more ambitious and bold steps triggering, in the process, a major shift in the country’s mindset and priorities (security is no longer theme du-jour, for instance). Iraqi people gradually began to dust off some of the hefty residues of the sectarian violence and look optimistically beyond security constraints. Sustained by an abrupt rise of the oil prices (over $100 a barrel), jobs creation and rebuilding were the nation’s number one priorities; these positive developments were met with positive reactions (political will) from the international community, which was translated into a massive influx of foreign investors including international oil companies probing for business opportunities. Consequently, the Iraqi government began to harvest the fruits of its hard work, and Mr. Al-Maliki’ s party (State of law coalition) was awarded with an unanimous victory in the 2009 provincial elections.

Regrettably, Iraq’s political infighting and violence, hitherto, are an imminent threat to its long-term stability and unity, and as Abraham Lincoln once said “a house divided against itself cannot stand”. Furthermore, Iraqi politicians have, unsurprisingly, failed to live up to the expectations of their constituents merely of their self-serving agendas and inability to fathom the interdependence and impact of political instability, insecurity, and economic underdevelopment on the country’s future. The absence, thus far, of a democratic and accountable government (mirroring the will and the aspirations of the Iraqi people) has created a power vacuum that is stalling the country’s institutions and, subsequently, jeopardizeing its highest interests for generations to come.

Despite its vast natural resources ( billions of oil and natural gas reserves), Iraq is still lagging far behind many developed countries – that once surpassed – as result of decades of wars, sanctions, and political instability; hence, Iraq’s economy is in desperate need of major structural reforms (e.g., investment law, hydrocarbon law). The Economist Intelligence Unit graded Iraq CC- in its credit ratings – Somewhere next to Sudan and Zimbabwe. For instance, investors, international oil companies, and private businesses are still facing a host of frustrating and hindering issues: Corruption, bureaucracy, lack of transparency, extortion, inconsistent customs procedures, visa problems, etc… Hence, in order for Iraq to overcome these challenges and join the 21st century, it must institute a conducive and transparent business environment compatible with its new constitution, consequently, attracting foreign investments, necessary capital, and greatly needed technological know-how, that is susceptible to resuscitate the country’s weakened economy, create jobs, and, ultimately, improve the well-being of millions of its disenfranchised citizens.

Fortunately, giving the current black gold rush, Iraq is well positioned as ever before to become the modern days El Dorado – Giving emerging markets insatiable appetite for energy resources- if it succeeds in rebuilding its political capital and enhancing the operational efficiency of its institutions.
To this end, Iraq must renounce its sectarian-based policies, political violence, and espouse an inclusive democratic system that embraces and protects the country’s diversities (UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights). Thus, the new government’s long-term strategy should entail an action plan that reflects the country’s top priorities and the people aspirations:

• National reconciliation to overcome the sectarian and political violence.
• Overhauling of State’s weak and inept institutions to rein in corruption and enhance efficiency.
• Providing access to basic services (e.g., drinking water, electricity, and running sewer)
• Advancing the principles of Human Rights and the Rule of Law.
• Investing in education: Higher illiteracy levels are a serious challenge to the country’s future.
• Creating jobs: Higher unemployment could be a source for societal and political unrest.
• Revive the country strategic industries to curtail its dependence on petrodollar.

To this end, national reconciliation is an absolute imperative to stave off sectarian violence, political instability, and, most importantly , the collapse of the State’s institution. Conversely, we might have to echo Mr. Al-Maliki saying, “We thought we had gone further in eradicating sectarianism than reality has shown.”(New York Times interview). Alas, for as in years to come will prove, undeniably, that both the country and its future generations will pay dearly for these injudicious choices.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Iraq’s new parliament met on Monday for the first time since elections were held on 7^th March.

According to Voice of America, “the session adjourned quickly, because parliament members had not ironed out the main items on the agenda”.

The session is still technically ‘open’, but suspended indefinitely, so as not to trigger a constitutional deadline of 30 days to form a new government.

The two top contenders for the post of prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki and Iyad Allawi, only met for the first time on Saturday, describing their talks as “friendly and positive”.

Despite the power vaccuum, America remains committed to withdrawing its combat forces by 1^st September.

If a week is a long time in politics, it is a very long time in Iraq. The first day of this week in Iraqi politics witnessed a Sunday 23 May meeting between Iraqiyya leader Iyad Allawi and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. On the same day, the Washington Post released a new interview with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that gave excellent insight into the premier’s current mindset. So what’s going on behind the scenes and how far away  is the ratification of a new prime minister and cabinet of ministers?

The overarching trend is that we are headed towards a sprawling “unity’ government that might be described as “a government of everyone and no-one.” This means a government in which almost everyone is a participant to some extent, but no-one has signed on to an agreed manifesto regarding how the government will act. Such a government would not be a meeting of equals; a sub-set of three political coalitions would form the core of the government and would hold the balance of votes in the cabinet – the forum at which many key decisions would be made.

What are the indicators that point to this conclusion? The first and most important is the difficulty of getting Maliki and Allawi in the same room, despite behind-the-scenes US and Gulf Arab pressure to make such a meeting occur. For many policy-makers in Washington and the Arab world, the ideal solution would be a Maliki-Allawi tie-up. In theory, this would assure a strong federal state, a more favourable investment climate, cross-sectarian balance and curtailed Iranian influence. Personality and alliance dynamics, plus insistent prodding from Tehran, make it unlikely that a nationalist super-coalition will emerge.

In the absence of such a nationalist alliance, it is equally unlikely that Allawi’s primarily Sunni Arab bloc will be excluded from government completely. The United States, Ayatollah Sistani and the Kurds have all been vocal on the need for an inclusive government. On 23 May, Maliki noted: “How could the government be formed without Iraqiyya whether as a bloc or as Sunnis?” Maliki added a further inducement to Allawi’s bloc members, noting: “the Iraqiyya list and the Sunni component must be in the sovereign posts, not in secondary posts.”

The comment shows that Maliki retains a clear-headed appreciation of Allawi’s weaknesses. Maliki correctly divines that Iraqiyya is struggling to hold together and may be easy to fragment. On 23 May, the premier noted: “I read the real situation and I see Allawi’s path as difficult; he has many problems ahead of him. I don’t say that I have no problems but mine are less. I have a coherent list unlike the others. So, imagine the problems for Allawi and the others.” Maliki has been consistent in rebuffing all possibility that Allawi will lead a new government and the Sunday meeting between Allawi and Sistani failed to produce any favourable outcome for the Iraqiyya leader.

A greater challenge for Maliki is to reassure Shia, Kurdish and Sunni partners that he can be trusted to take a less authoritarian stance during a second term. Some elements of the pan-Shiite Iraqi National Alliance (INA) such as the Sadrists will require very significant inducements to accept Maliki as prime minister, including so-called “service ministries” such as health, labour and transport. The Kurds and Sunni Arab factions also have a strong bias against the premier. Though Maliki can offer many tempting pay-offs to allies in the form of ministries, there is an under-current of antipathy that suggests Maliki will be shunted aside at a very late stage in government formation and a more acceptable (and weaker) prime ministerial candidate placed atop the sprawling “unity” government.

Whether Maliki remains or is removed, the resultant government may be unlikely to emerge before the start of Ramadan in mid-August. Whenever the government does emerge, we can expect significant churn in the ministries, with most or all of the ministerial portfolios redistributed during the summer negotiations. The aforementioned sovereign ministries – Finance, Interior, Oil, Defence, Foreign Affairs – may be split between political appointees of five main factions. This could result in some favourable results for investors, such as an Iraqiyya or Maliki pragmatist in the Ministry of Oil or a Kurd in an Arab-KRG confidence-building role at the Ministry of Finance. The shuffle could also see unsavoury characters implanted in key positions. In the lottery of government formation, only one statement can be made in confidence — that many existing relationships will be rendered null and void, requiring the work of commercial positioning to begin afresh.

Profile

Dr Michael Knights is Vice President and lead Iraq analyst at Olive Group, the  first security company to operate in Iraq.  He has  worked on Iraqi political and security risks since the mid-1990s, first as an oil and gas journalist and later as an academic, receiving his PhD on Iraq at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London.  Since 2003, Dr Knights has run the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Iraq programme, advising US government agencies on Iraq policy and publishing a series of books on local politics and security in Basrah, Maysan, Dhi Qar and the northern provinces including Kirkuk.  Since joining Olive Group in 2006, he has produced in-depth social and political analysis of 26 of Iraq’s major oil and gas fields and keeps a close eye on national security and politics.

He can be contacted at mknights@olivegroup.com

The two biggest Shia political groups have announced they are to form a coalition.

Incumbent Prime Minister Nouri Maliki’s State of Law, and the Iraqi National Alliance, would together be just four seats short of a majority. The difficult question of who would be Prime Minister is still to be decided.

The announcement comes as the re-counting of votes in the Baghdad district continues.

According to a report by BBC this morning, Iraqi election officials said that a recount of the Baghdad ballots from the parliamentary vote on 7 March could take another three weeks.

This comes as Nouri al-Maliki, who is disputing the results, has harshly criticized calls for international involvement in setting up a new government, according to Associated Press.

We will give updates on developments as this story progresses.

It’s generally accepted internationally that the elections in Iraq were, in the main, free and fair, but former prime minister Ayad Allawi’s narrow margin of victory means the results will be challenged.

Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki’s Shiite Muslim State of Law alliance filed a complaint on Tuesday with the Supreme Court, asking for a recount in several areas. When the dust settles, the Sadrist Iraqi National Alliance (INA) could be the kingmaker, having secured a strong third place.

Meanwhile, plans to re-base the Iraqi currency, the dinar, appear to be going ahead, but the exact timing of the change is still to be decided. The new dinar will be worth one thousand times the old one, which will help facilitate trade and foreign exchange, but will be otherwise neutral in terms of valuation.

While the local currency has gained in value in recent years, the planned increase in petroleum production, and the expected boom that this will create in the domestic economy, have led many to speculate that the dinar will continue to strengthen.

The dinar is already becoming more acceptable and credible as a means of exchange; mobile phone operator Asiacell just announced that it will change its tariffs and billing from dollars to dinars. And as AAIB’s Rob Edwards reports, his company will write insurance policies in either currency.

Where do you think the dinar is headed? We’d welcome your opinions in the comments section below.