The slender margin generated by Iyad Allawi, the slightly more secularist candidate , over the incumbent Prime Minister Maliki, has all the indications of turning to ashes.  Although both candidates for the next PM role are Shiites, Allawi, a former member of the Saddam Govenment, has long been seen as a centrist and wholly secular candidate, whilst Maliki, himself centrist, is seen as less secular, more sympathetic to Shiites – several members of the current administration are rumoured to be close to Iran. 

In the last 48 hours the Accountability and Justice Commission has claimed that several of the elected MP’s retain loyalty to Saddam’s Baath Party.  The Baath party was secular and Sunni.  Many Sunni’s voted for Allawi because of his secular credentials which included his track record after being selected as the first Prime Minister of the post war Iraq Government in 2004/5.

This election was preceded by the barring of several hundred candidates deemed to have some retained loyalty to the Baath movement.  Shortly before the election, the Commission announced 52 further Baathists it had identified, but shelved the issue to enable the election to proceed.  This move by the Commission provides a possible avenue to nullify the success of the group, currently six. 

An interesting  aspect of the situation is that the Commission is run by two Shiites, both appointed by Maliki, once with rumoured close links to Iran.  Allawi currently has 91 seats and Maliki 89, but with the potential to nullify several results, this could rapidly shift the balance and the PR battle in Maliki’s favour.

The Commission itself does not have the power to make the changes.  It provides evidence to the Court of Appeal, under the current constitution, and the court can then make the judgement.  The court has just under a fortnight to take a view.

The Commission’s de-Baathification and other activities are led by Ahmed Chalabi, former Prime

Minister and Shiite Muslim with reputed close links to Iran, formerly a US resident and at one time close to Bush and oil sector players in Texas.  Chalabi also stood in the election and won a seat in parliament.  The other Commission Head  Ali Faisal al Lami was also a candidate but polled less than needed to win a seat. Lami is known as the man who spent a year in a US-run prison and was released without charges in August last year.  US commentators have said both men have close contacts with the head of Quds, an element of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, reputed to be the power behind Iran’s Government.

The Commission is quoted as saying “we are charged with making sure that no one who is a Baathist will ever rise to power”.

For Allawi, the process of forming a coalition could be stalled or slowed if the Court were to nullify the voting.  An alternative is that the Court could debar the individuals and allow the alternative candidates of the winning parties to take the seats. 

Unusually for Iran Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has warned against any foreign interference in the Iraqi elections. Mehmanparast said Monday that foreign interference could undermine efforts to restore democracy. “The Iraqi people went to the polls to institutionalize democracy so interference of others would harm this process.”

The full election results have been announced – according to Bloomberg, the seat tally is as follows:

• Former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi’s Iraqiya alliance secured 91 seats;
• Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki’s State of Law alliance won 89 seats;
• Iraqi National Alliance, led by pro-Iranian Shiite cleric Ammar al-Hakim, came in third with 70 seats;
• The Kurdistan alliance won 43 seats.

“There is no evidence of widespread or serious fraud”, Philip J. Crowley, a spokesman for the U.S. State Department, told reporters in Washington. “This marks a significant milestone in the ongoing democratic development of Iraq.”

Al-Maliki does not accept the results.

Democratic elections normally lead to stability and a smooth transfer of power. But not in Iraq.

The results of the latest elections may lead to violence and instability in a country torn by wars and civil strife.

The President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Noor al-Maliki both dispute the results and have called for a recount. This is strongly supported by the Chairs of the provincial councils for nine provinces; Baghdad, Al-Qadesia, Najaf, Karbala, Babil, Basra, Wasit, Dhi Qar, and Al-Muthana, as it is stated by the Chair of Basra Provincial Council- Mr. Jabar Ameen- in a Press Conference conducted post a meeting held for the Chairs of those nine provinces, in Al-Basra Provincial Council Building. He has further asserted on the necessity of the positive reply of the Election Commission for these demands, and recount the manual excreating of the votes, under the monitor of international experts, and representatives of political blocs.

The likely winners and the independent commission supervising the elections say that is almost impossible to do.

And demonstration against the results have swept at least two provinces in southern Iraq.

The Iraqi Bloc, garnering the largest number of votes so far, has described those demonstrations as illegal and unconstitutional.

“The demonstrations are a coup against democracy,” said Jamal Bateeh of the Iraqi Bloc.

Their rivals, who are apparently stunned by the results, say demonstrating is a constitutional right.

It is most likely that the results of the elections will not be respected in Iraq although the major groups, the State of Law and the Iraqi Bloc are both head by Shiite Muslims.

But the differences between them are too wide. The head of the Iraqi Bloc is of secular tendencies and has garnered the largest support mainly among Sunni-dominated provinces.

The head of the State of Law, the outgoing prime minister, is seen by many as of sectarian orientations.

The electoral commission sees the demonstration as “politicized” and has called on all parties to accept the results. So far up to 95 per cent of the vote has been counted.

The problem in Iraq is that almost all political factions have military wings with tens if not hundreds of thousands heavily armed militias.

Al-Maliky takes the top, over Alaawy and Al-Hashimy State Law Coalition takes the biggest vote in Baghdad and Basra, having counted 60% of voting in Baghdad.

16 March, 2010 By Monday (15 March, 2010), 60% of the votes in Baghdad, have been counted the Stae Law Coalition headed by Al-Maliky has taken the first place ollowed by the former PM (Iyad Alaawy) in second place and the National Iraqi Coalition in third.

The findings are different in Basra, after having counted 70%of the votes; Al- Maliky stands at the first, then the National Iraqi Coalition, ands then the Iraqia to be on the third place. What should be noted that  the % of votes for Al-Maliky in Basra than in Baghdad.

This implies that Al-Maliky would take the majoity of the 21 seats allocated for Basra and have significant influence the processing of the reconstructiona and development chances for Basra during the next four years.

The Independent High Comission for Elections, has confirmed that Al-Maliky has obtained more than 518,000 vote, whereas Alawy’s has gained 453,000vote, to stand on the second place.    The National Iraqi Coalition – which includes Shia’ parties – has got less than 324,000 vote.

Baghdad shall hold 70 seats out of the 325 seats for the next Parliament cabinet. The figures known indicate strongly that Al-Maliky will be the biggest block at the parliament, which implies an influencial role in the forming of the next government.

Irbil/ Al-mashriq Follow up- Tuesday, 16 March, 2010 The key player in the Kurdistanic Democratic Party- Nejerfan Barazany- has stated the last Monday (15 March, 2010), that the current Iraqi president – Jalal Al-Talibany – is the key candidate of the his party, to the next presidency position in Iraq.    So, he has called the Kurdish parties upon, to support his nomination to a new presidency term.

By Fatih Abdulsalam- Azzaman, March 15, 2010

The results from the general elections indicate that the sectarian equation brought about in the aftermath of the occupation of Baghdad may no longer hold. We have seen Iraqis rallying behind groups which puts national interests above sectarianism.

Some even go on saying that the equation has lost its balance. The evidence they cite are the results in provinces such as Nineveh, Salahuddeen, Anbar and Diyala where the electorate chose a secular coalition at the expense of an Islamist party.

On the other hand, there are many who say that some other political blocs have preserved their standing by relying on sectarian support.

These people add that the coalition of the State of the Law headed by outgoing Prime Minister Noor al-Maliki and the National Coalition are none but sectarian formations. This is evident in the overwhelming support they obtained in certain provinces.

 In the meantime, even those entertaining hopes for the emergence of a secular state, have their doubts. They do not think that the ‘secular’ front which Ayad Allawi’s Iraqi block represents is truly secular. It has the same faces as before and the same program.

Allawi’s 25 deputies lost their compass in the past years in parliament and entered into coalitions with non-secular groups. Allawi himself has been away from the Iraqi scene for more than five years.

What I see as a good sign emerging from the latest elections is the fact that Iraqis are seriously thinking of national interests. This is what counts regardless of who wins.

But this is just the beginning and the yearning for national interests to be placed above everything else is still in its nascent stage.

The BBC reports that partial results are now in from all 18 provinces, and Nouri al-Maliki has strengthened his lead over main rival Iyad Allawi.

His State of Law coalition is leading in seven provinces, including Baghdad and Basra. Baghdad is the largest constituency, with 70 seats from the total of 325.

The Iraqi National Alliance (INA) is ahead in five provinces, including oil-rich Kirkuk, where Kurdish parties were expected to win.

Mr Allawi’s Iraqiya, a secular Shia-Sunni alliance, is currently in third position.

An estimated 62% of the 19 million eligible voters went to the polls in Sunday’s parliamentary elections – this was down from the 75% seen in the 2005 elections, but was still a very respectable turnout.

Preliminary results should be available this week, but final official results will not be declared until the end of March. The BBC reports that Mr Maliki’s State of Law Coalition said it had done well, especially in Baghdad and in the Shia south of Iraq.

We can expect a period of deal-making and horse-trading while the various parties negotiate a coalition agreement – this is just a normal part of the democratic process.

“Today’s voting makes it clear that the future of Iraq belongs to the people of Iraq,” said the American President, Barack Obama on Sunday.

The Iraqi Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs announced that 10,000 part-time jobs have been offered in coordination with the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) in Iraq.

A source from the Ministry told Aswat al-Iraq news agency that the information presented by each unemployed candidate has been checked by the Ministry.