The following article was published by Reidar Visser, an historian of Iraq educated at the University of Oxford and currently based at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. It is reproduced here with the author’s permission. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Almost one and a half years after the general elections of 7 March 2010 and amid persistent street protests, the Iraqi parliament can’t even make up its mind as to who exactly are its 325 members.

According to the official agenda, yesterday’s session of parliament should have been devoted to such momentous issues as the second reading of the strategic policy council bill and a vote on the amended parliamentary bylaws. As expected, none of this was actually addressed by the almost half-empty assembly. However, the presidency of the parliament announced an interesting forthcoming vote – supposedly on Saturday – on the “correctness of the parliamentary membership” of three deputies, namely Jawad al-Shuhayli, Jamal al-Gaylani and Ammar Hasan Abd Ali.

The reason there are controversies relating to these and other members of parliament is the replacement process that began in December 2010 for deputies that became promoted to ministers in the second Maliki government. That process continued well into 2011, and in March came to involve a vote on 7 deputies whose membership qualifications were in doubt. Lately, the matter has been further complicated by the fact that more than a dozen ministers lost their cabinet jobs as a result of the government downsizing and have demanded they get their old jobs as deputies back!

With just another month to go in Nouri al-Maliki’s 100-day ultimatum to his ministers to improve services, the Prime Minister is now increasing the pressure once more.

In addition to sacking ministers who have not performed within the required time, Maliki is also suggesting dissolving the government or even the entire parliament, either at the 100-day mark or at some later stage.

When we think back to the painfully long process of forming the current government, threats of this nature should not be made lightly or idly.

But this rolling ultimatum, if it is serious, may help to focus the minds of Iraq’s ministers and parliamentarians in their mammoth task of rebuilding the country.

Parliament’s next big decision in this respect is to approve the cabinet’s plans to spend $35bn on infrastructure. With the country crying out for basic essential services such as electricity, and with Maliki’s threat hanging over them, allocating funds to improve infrastructure should be high on their list of priorities.

Whatever sector of the economy your business operates in, Upper Quartile and AAIB are here to help you. For more information please contact Gavin Jones or Adrian Shaw.

Iraq Business News has been shedding light on the investment climate in Iraq for a year. Over that period there have been numerous improvements in conditions. However, security has continued to play a major role in the business sector. Attacks and instability have persisted despite a significant reduction in overall violence in recent years.

Violence in Baghdad on Election Day, 2010

The Elections

In terms of security incidents and developments, several stand out over the past 12 months. The most poignant day of the year was arguably the 7^th of March. A spate of attacks swept the country as citizens went to the polls to vote. Intimidation and a fear of violence caused many to doubt whether or not they should participate on the day, but by sunset a sea of hands waved ink-stained fingers in defiance of the country’s terrorist groups. Protesters today are demonstrating across the Middle East to demand an increase in reforms but Iraq already has many of these democratic standards in place.

Iraqis Vote - taken from wikipedia

Trends in Violence

It took eight months for a government to be formed and many were concerned that terrorists would take advantage of the prolonged political vacuum by initiating attacks. However, these fears were not realised, with levels of violence fluctuating and eventually reducing towards the end of December.

Weekly violence in Iraq over the past year

Casualty Figures

Fatality rates have continued to fluctuate, with peaks and troughs in the weekly figure. Fortunately there have been more troughs than peaks over recent months, although most weeks still see at least 20 fatalities which is still a high figure. Three weeks over the past year have seen more than 100 fatalities, with mass casualty attacks, often against large crowds of Shi’ah worshippers or members of the security forces remaining a tactic of choice for radical Islamist organisations.

Weekly fatalities in Iraq - last year

Radical Islamists

That said, the jihadist movements in the country have suffered a series of setbacks. Two senior al-Qaeda figures were killed in a counter-insurgency operation in Thar Thar (Salah ad-Din province) on the 19^th of April. The deaths of Abu Ayub al-Masri and Abu Omar al-Baghdadi were confirmed by the US military using DNA testing and signalled a major blow to the Islamist movement in the central provinces. Two other al-Qaeda figures were captured in the same week, including the network’s Baghdad ruler, Manaf Abdulrahim al-Rawi (Abu Hayder), and Mahmoud Suleiman, the military commander of the organisation in Anbar province. A series of financiers and cell members were also rounded up or killed in operations throughout the rest of the year. Al-Qaeda remains a threat group of concern in Iraq but the last year is likely to prove somewhat of an annus horribilis for the organisation.

The Iraqi security forces will be on their own from the end of the year

The Year Ahead

With tentative improvements in conditions, there is still uncertainty ahead. The US military is set to withdraw by the end of the year, raising fears of a possible security gap. Ethnic tensions continue to smoulder in the northern provinces of Ninawa, Ta’mim (Kirkuk) and parts of Diyala. Baghdad will remain the focus of political attention and will likely continue to suffer terrorist attacks. Crime may also become more of an issue, as the last phase of a (currently) dying insurgency, although ongoing improvements in the security forces will likely limit the risk. Finally, civil unrest and protestation may become more of a concern. For years many Iraqis were too scared to demonstrate. The expression of political will could result in murder, but now more and more are taking to the streets. With electricity shortages likely to intensify over the coming months the demands of the have-nots may become increasingly vocal. The authorities will have to exert extensive efforts if they are to appease protester demands. Evidently, democracy is no guarantee of stability. It is fragile and needs to be nurtured if it is to have a positive impact on a country’s security.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here

You can also follow John Drake on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

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With political and social upheaval, first in Tunisia and now in Egypt, the big question on many minds at the moment is to what extent the unrest will spread to other countries in the Arab world.

But despite the undoubted poverty in Iraq, it is rarely mentioned as possible candidate for a popular uprising, and the reason is that Iraq has a functioning democratic system, painfully slow and imperfect though it may be. The people of Iraq have had the chance to express their opinions at the ballot box.

The turmoil is clearly having an impact on Iraq in another way: the price of oil. Hitting $102 on Wednesday, crude oil is up 7% in the past week, and is well above the $73 per barrel on which the country’s 2011 budget is based.

A spokesman for Iraq’s Ministry of Oil confirmed that the Egyptian situation would not restrict Iraq’s output and export of oil, and if that continues to be the case, Iraq may stand to benefit significantly from these developments.

Upper Quartile and AAIB work closely with businesses in the energy and infrastructure sectors. To see how they can assist your business in Iraq, please contact Gavin Jones or Adrian Shaw.

Trends in 2010 demonstrated that violence is still a concern in Iraq. With opportunities for investment arising in 2011 the outlook for the country is fast improving, but companies looking to take part in Iraq’s economic redevelopment will have to take security into consideration if they are to succeed.

Weekly Violence

The above chart shows the weekly number of security incidents reported in the country last year. The most notable spike in attacks occurred in early March. A spate of attacks took place countrywide on 7 March as the nation went to the polls. Violence on the day was initially played down by the authorities, particularly the US military, and many of the attacks were low level in nature. Nonetheless, dozens of people were killed, reminding all in the country that militants still have the capability to conduct co-ordinated and devastating attacks, despite a massive surge in security measures around the date.

Since the election, the number of attacks continued to fluctuate, with a series of peaks and troughs throughout the rest of the year. This trend is likely to continue in 2011, as militants continue to receive support and new recruits from abroad. The police continue to gradually increase their capabilities, but they have suffered numerous setbacks, with repeated attacks on patrols, checkpoints and senior figures throughout the year. The US military is also expected to withdraw by the end of the year.

Weekly Fatalities

AKE’s weekly fatalities are displayed in the graph above. Attacks against Iraqi civilians also persisted in 2010 and Iraq Body Count documented at least 4,021 civilian fatalities. This constitutes a fall from the 4,680 recorded in 2009 but is still considered as an unacceptably high figure. The number of casualties declined gradually over the last few months of the year but total figures continue to fluctuate. Whilst conditions have greatly improved since 2008 and previous years, the frequency of attacks is still stubbornly high.

Regional Violence

The above chart shows how much violence each region in Iraq experienced in 2010. By a considerable margin, Baghdad was the most hostile part of the country in 2010, accounting for 36 per cent of all violent incidents (an increase from the 32 per cent it accounted for in 2009). For such a small area of territory violence was particularly concentrated here. In comparison, the southern region of Iraq accounted for only five per cent of all violent incidents. This is a much larger geographical area and the trend bodes well for the numerous companies looking to establish a presence here. Provinces such as Muthanna saw virtually no attacks at all. Sporadic incidents continue to occur around Basrah and Amarah but with adequate security procedures foreign firms should be able to overcome the associated risks.

The northern provinces of Ninawa and Ta’mim remain amongst the country’s most hostile areas. Mosul, the capital of Ninawa province, can actually be considered one of the most hazardous cities in the world. The two provinces together accounted for 30 per cent of all violence in the country last year. This is an improvement from 2009 when together they accounted for over 40 per cent, and the disputed city of Kirkuk in Ta’mim province does appear to have experienced a tentative improvement in conditions. Nonetheless, all of this could come undone in the event that there is any serious debate over who should govern the ethnically mixed region. The outcome will, therefore, owe a lot to Iraqi politicians, and it is hoped that 2011 will be a year of agreement on political change rather than a protracted series of negotiations as was witnessed in 2010.

John F Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found at www.akegroup.com/iraq

You can also follow John on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

AKE Ltd

GE has produced a rather useful primer on the latest Iraqi cabinet and Council of Representatives.

Please click here to download a copy.

By Ranj Alaaldin, a Middle East political and security risk analyst based at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He visits the Middle East regularly and as part of his recent work on Iraq has visited the country on a number of fact-finding missions. Foreign Policy magazine recently listed him among its 100 best Twitter users in international affairs. The opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

On Tuesday, Iraq just about managed to form a government – only days before a constitutional deadline, and nine months since the elections took place. With the cabinet now named and accepted by parliament, the hard work starts for a country that still has many challenges and disputes to overcome.

High on the agenda for the Iraqi government and the prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, (who will run the ministries of interior and defence himself until accepted candidates are found) will be to consolidate the security gains of the past three years. In tandem with this will be the usual efforts to improve basic services and infrastructure. Yet, all this depends on the ability of this new government to actually function.

Whether it can function is by no means certain. The government is composed of unlikely political and ideological bedfellows and is the product of desperate power-seeking efforts among easily compromised domestic elements.

The difference this time is the all-inclusiveness of the government. Iraq’s Sunni Arabs are now better represented, with the Sunni-dominated Iraqi National movement (INM) of Ayad Allawi taking the parliamentary speaker’s post, the deputy premiership and the all-important finance ministry, among others.

The Kurds and the major Shia-dominated groups, including Maliki’s State of Law coalition and the Sadrists, took a collection of sovereign and service ministries. While this means Iraq has a truly national government, what it will achieve in terms of policy and direction is not so great, given that it has been formed on the basis of promises and compromises that may be reneged on or delayed at the very least.

The following is a statement from US President, Barack Obama, on the formation of the new Iraqi government:

Today’s vote in the Council of Representatives is a significant moment in Iraq’s history and a major step forward in advancing national unity. I congratulate Iraq’s political leaders, the members of the Council of Representatives, and the Iraqi people on the formation of a new government of national partnership.

Yet again, the Iraqi people and their elected representatives have demonstrated their commitment to working through a democratic process to resolve their differences and shape Iraq’s future. Their decision to form an inclusive partnership government is a clear rejection of the efforts by extremists to spur sectarian division.

Iraq faces important challenges, but the Iraqi people can also seize a future of opportunity. The United States will continue to strengthen our long-term partnership with Iraq’s people and leaders as they build a prosperous and peaceful nation that is fully integrated into the region and international community.