Levels of violence rose in Iraq last week despite heightened security measures put in place ahead of the Arab League Summit. It was the worst week since a series of terrorist attacks targeted Shi’ah pilgrims during Arba’een at the beginning of January and the fourth-worst week recorded over the past six months. At least 73 people were killed and well over 270 injured in nationwide incidents although this figure is liable to be higher given the difficult reporting climate surrounding the spate of attacks recorded on 20 March. Violence was concentrated in Mosul, Baghdad and the central provinces.

North
While many of the attacks took place in the central provinces, levels of violence also rose in the north of the country. Conditions have eased once again over the last two days but the area remains one of the more hazardous parts of the country. Incidents remain concentrated in Mosul, although Kirkuk is also volatile, with an ongoing risk of inter-communal tensions, bombings and shootings, with the latter two tactics being particularly targeted against the police. Kirkuk also remains one of the worst parts of the country for abductions. AKE will be issuing its next quarterly kidnap and ransom report next week. For further details or to purchase a copy please email intel@akegroup.com.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
With the Arab League Summit taking place in the capital the operating environment was rendered very difficult this week, with conditions still being affected at the time of writing. Routes around the city have been closed to cars and even pedestrians in many areas. The official schedule for re-opening remains subject to change and there is little that organisations can do except prepare for last-minute alterations in the security plan. Mobile network coverage has also been restricted, making communications very difficult. Anyone requiring medical assistance or evacuation by the authorities in the city are advised to telephone the public telephone number 404 for assistance The same number can be used to report suspicious activity.

South
The south of Iraq saw heightened security measures over the course of the week like many other parts of the country. However, conditions remained quiet and there were no major incidents reported.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

As security measures are heightened ahead of the Arab League Summit in Baghdad levels of violence fell in Iraq last week with 26 people killed and 22 injured in nationwide incidents. This was a drop by half from the previous week and a very low figure in general for the country.

However, a spate of attacks swept the country on 20 March, killing at least 50 people and injuring over 250. The bombings have been claimed by al-Qaeda in Iraq and as analysed on Iraq Business News were likely an attempt to discredit the government. Many are now questioning the security measures put in place ahead of the summit although at the time of writing the event is still set to go ahead. To cancel it at this stage would constitute a major loss of face.

Managing Traffic
The government has announced that a public holiday will begin on 25 March, lasting beyond the course of the event. Official buildings will be closed and traffic congestion in Baghdad will be reduced as a result. This will make it easier for the security forces to manage the traffic and search more vehicles moving around the city. This is turn will hopefully make it more difficult for terrorists to infiltrate, but travel conditions will still be difficult for the personnel who continue to work in the capital.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months. Note the decline in violence over the past week. Next week's bar will likely see a notable rise.

Violence Last Week
In the run-up to the latest assault conditions were relatively quiet countrywide. Only six bomb attacks were recorded last week, which is less than a third of the usual weekly figure. For a change, more people were killed in shooting attacks than in bomb blasts, with 18 people shot dead and 14 injured against only seven killed and eight injured by explosive devices over the course of the week.

Geographical Distribution
Attacks were concentrated in the northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, with a scattering of attacks in districts surrounding the capital. Basrah also saw a demonstration on Monday as local residents and attendees from elsewhere in the southern provinces gathered to complain of a lack of development and high unemployment in the oil-rich region.

A number of blasts have also been reported in the city although they appear to have slipped under the radar of in-country news coverage. No casualties have been reported but security has been increased around central Basrah in response and personnel are reminded that conditions are neither ‘safe’ nor ‘stable’ in what should otherwise be considered a city with strong economic opportunities. Companies are still encouraged to look to the city as a good investment, but proper risk mitigation measures need to be put in place prior to any serious investment.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

After a long series of attacks against the police, it is the Iraqi government which appears to have been the primary target in the latest bout of attacks in Iraq.  A spate of at least 26 bombings and shootings around the country left dozens of people dead on 20 March. Incidents were recorded in Abu Ghraib, Baghdad, Balad Ruz, Bayji, Daquq, Dhulu’iyah, Hillah, Karbala, Latifiyah, Mosul, Muqdadiyah, Ramadi, Samarra, Tikrit and Tuz Khurmatu, stretching from Ninawa in the north to Babil in the centre of the country.

Targeting
While the police were amongst those targeted in the attacks, the provincial government, councillors and even the Ministry of Foreign Affairs were also singled out. Given the co-ordination of the attacks at a time of heightened security in the country it is likely that a large organisation was responsible. Suspicion falls on al-Qaeda in Iraq, given the tactics and targeting. If they are indeed behind the attacks their motive would likely be an attempt to discredit the government and send a signal to the many world leaders looking to visit Baghdad for the upcoming Arab League Summit on 27-29 March.

Attacks in Iraq - 20 March 2012

The Government Response
In the aftermath of the violence security has been tightened even further and traffic conditions are reported to be chaotic in the capital. As well as an existing curfew on motorbikes and carts in Baghdad, the government announced earlier today that the country is to have a national holiday for one week from 25 March. Ministries will shut so government workers do not need to travel to work. This will likely limit congestion, but with additional security checks it is likely that travel will still be subject to disruption. Furthermore, terrorist groups will still likely be able to conduct attacks. They continue to defy the increased security procedures of the government to great effect.

AKE Advice
Personnel should factor in additional time for any planned movements, and try to minimise non-essential travel around Baghdad at this time. Organisations which continue to work during the holidays may also wish to provide temporary accommodation for their Iraqi staff at their place of work so that they can avoid the anticipated commuter disruption of the coming weeks. It is also advisable to stock up on non-perishable foods, medicines and other supplies in case it becomes difficult to obtain such goods during the holiday.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.
 

Advertising Feature

Iraq Business News is delighted to bring you the latest Iraq Market Tracker report from Dunia Frontier Consultants. The market tracker highlights the activities and market performance of a basket of publicly traded firms who derive a significant percentage of their revenues from operations in Iraq, but are traded on foreign exchanges: a proxy Iraq play as much as practicable. It also identifies and analyzes the primary political and security events that occur in country that have market-moving implications.

Click here to access the report.

Companies Mentioned:

ExxonMobil, Lukoil, Total

Action Calls:

• Exxon news signals some movement on KRG dispute: … But not yet in which direction. We would withhold assumption of Baghdad “win.”
• Total in discussions to enter Iraqi Kurdistan: At least one company apparently not spooked by action with Exxon.
• Lukoil to boost spending at Iraq oil field to $2 billion in 2012: Reminder of other side of coin – doubling down in the south.

Headlines:

• Iraq warms to GCC as Arab League Summit approaches: Maliki seeks to improve stature at AL Summit, but also signals subtle shift.
• Kurdistan says Iraq must investigate missing crude exports: Neither Erbil nor Baghdad likely want or are able to investigate; most likely Kurdish bargaining strategy.

Calendar Events Discussed:

• 29 March – Arab League summit
• April – National Reconciliation Conference

Click here to access the report, or to add your email address to Dunia’s mailing list to receive the Iraq Market Tracker via email.

Levels of violence rose in Iraq last week. At least 70 people were killed and 76 injured in nationwide incidents, although this figure does not include the ‘emo’ and LGBT fatalities widely reported in open sources within Iraq over the past two weeks. A significant rise in the number of small arms fire attacks left 32 people dead and six injured. At least 27 of those fatalities were inflicted during a series of night time attacks on police officers in Hadithah, Anbar province. Otherwise a total of 21 bomb attacks left 13 people dead and 39 injured.

The North
Three of the above mentioned bomb attacks involved a suicide bomber, including a double bombing in the northern town of Tal Afar (in Ninawa province) which left 20 people dead. The northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk also saw a spate of attacks last week, including two kidnappings in Kirkuk city centre. As warned in recent reports, the Turkish military has also increased its cross-border military operations in the Qandil Mountains in pursuit of Kurdish separatist group the PKK. This regularly occurs during the month of March when winter weather conditions begin to ease. However, the majority of the region will remain unaffected by the activity and Iraqi Kurdistan is still regarded as a relatively secure place in which to do business.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

The Centre
Violence was concentrated in the central provinces last week. Baghdad itself was relatively quiet although a series of attacks against the police and jewellery shops in the north of the city and left several people dead. Meanwhile, security measures are being increased in the capital ahead of the Arab League Summit at the end of the month. The authorities announced that a 24-hour ban on carts and motorbikes would be imposed citywide from 17 March. They have not announced when the curfew will end (it will likely be subject to trends in violence and they will not want to give a specific date for terrorists to plan around) but it could last for up to two weeks. Travel around the city centre will likely become difficult as searches and safety measures are being increased around security checkpoints.

Emo and LGBT Killings
As covered in open sources, young emo and Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) individuals have been threatened harassed and even killed by unknown individuals in recent weeks. It would appear that vigilantes are singling out their victims for failing to adhere to what are regarded as religious norms. The victims are reported to have been killed with the use of bricks: a painful and horrific method likely aimed at instilling fear amongst other members of the community. Official sources have not yet confirmed the death toll, with some still denying that they are taking place.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Advertising Feature

Iraq Business News is delighted to bring you the latest Iraq Market Tracker report from Dunia Frontier Consultants. The market tracker highlights the activities and market performance of a basket of publicly traded firms who derive a significant percentage of their revenues from operations in Iraq, but are traded on foreign exchanges: a proxy Iraq play as much as practicable. It also identifies and analyzes the primary political and security events that occur in country that have market-moving implications.

Click here to access the report.

Companies Mentioned:

ExxonMobil, Gulf Keystone, Halliburton

Action Calls:

• Gulf Keystone shares hit as Exxon fear overcomes greed: Watch increasing noise out of Baghdad to signal crisis and closure.
• New Kurd rules tie oil equipment imports to PSCs: Signals that Kurds continue to pursue their own path.
• Iraq starts oil exports from SPM: Status quo continues – Iraq infrastructure progress in fits and starts.

Headlines:

• Iraqiya indicates positive steps in Hashemi talks with Maliki: Maliki probably pursuing holding pattern until after Arab League summit.
• KRG says negotiating Peshmerga deployment in Diyala : Could be very positive move, if it indeed has Baghdad’s support.
• Al-Qaeda attack in Anbar: AQI attacks likely to continue in run-up to Arab League summit.

Calendar Events Discussed:

• 29 March – Arab League summit
• April – National Reconciliation Conference

Click here to access the report, or to add your email address to Dunia’s mailing list to receive the Iraq Market Tracker via email.

After weeks of declining violence in February, the number of attacks rose once again in Iraq over the last week of the month. At least 53 people were killed and 245 injured in nationwide incidents, which is moderately high, albeit not as high as the figures of over 100 recorded fatalities in some of the weeks at the beginning of the year. There was a rise in the total number of bombings reported and a consistent number of shootings, but more positively there were no kidnappings or indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) recorded. The gradual decline in attacks in February followed by the latest rise is illustrated in the graph below.

North
Mosul in the north has been unusually quiet for at least two weeks, raising concerns that militants in the area have been looking elsewhere to conduct attacks. The spate of bombings which took place around the centre of the country last week could indicate that they have turned their attention to the heartland of the country, although there are also ongoing fears that some of the militants have headed across the border into neighbouring Syria.

Centre
The central region saw the majority of attacks last week, especially around Ba’qubah and Baghdad. Countrywide, a rise in the total number of bomb attacks last week left 39 people dead and 242 injured, but most of the incidents took place in Baghdad and the central provinces. A steady number of small arms fire attacks left 14 people dead and three injured, notably in the capital.

The region suffered a number of attacks on 23 February, a day when co-ordinated bombings struck cities between Hillah and Mosul. Bombs hit Salah ad-Din, Diyala and Babil provinces, as well as Baghdad. In total, at least 50 people were killed and dozens injured, with incidents largely targeting the security forces. However, civilian and judicial interests were also singled out.

The attacks have since been claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq, the Sunni militant organisation affiliated with al-Qaeda, and they may have been timed to coincide with two events. Firstly, the Iraqi government announced that the security situation had improved in the country, so foreign leaders would have no reason to doubt being able to travel to Baghdad for the Arab League summit at the end of March. The attacks were therefore possibly aimed at discrediting the state, not just amongst the Iraqi public, but also amidst the wider region.

Car bombs remain a concern for politicians, travellers and Iraqis alike

Secondly, many (but not all) of the country’s politicians had gathered in parliament on the same day to debate and endorse the federal budget. It was a high-profile event attracting media attention, which was undoubtedly distracted by the numerous attacks taking place around the capital and wider country at the same time. The fact that politicians agreed to spend a significant amount of money on armoured cars appears to have been a particularly controversial decision made on the day.

South
While the southern provinces remain quieter than the north and centre of the country there are nonetheless ongoing hairline cracks in the veneer of overall security in the region. Local sentiment remains outwardly optimistic and positive towards the foreign investment arriving in the region but intra-Shi’ah community and political tensions persist and organisations still need to take security into strong consideration when working in the area. At present, there are rising tensions between rival Shi’ah political organisations, with at least one percussion explosive device detonated outside the home of a political figure north of Basrah last week. Demonstrators also tried to storm a municipal building in Nassiriyah on 24 February in protest at the ongoing closure of a political party office in the city. The security forces remain capable of dealing with low level unrest and sporadic political violence but if unrest gains momentum the security situation could deteriorate, potentially at short notice, over the coming months or even years. Amid the uncertainty, AKE has issued new travel risk analysis, guidance and advice on the country which can be accessed here.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

There was a fall in the number of attacks recorded in Iraq last week, but the death toll was nonetheless higher than normal following a mass-casualty suicide attack targeting a police academy in Baghdad. In total, at least 45 people were killed and 74 injured in nationwide incidents, of which 19 were killed and 29 injured in the suicide attack.

North
AKE has tracked a notable decline in violence in Ninawa province over the past two weeks. While the police have conducted a number of recent raids in the area which may have led to a lull in militant activity there is growing speculation that al-Qaeda fighters from northern Iraq may be shifting their focus away from the country and towards neighbouring Syria. This would explain the recent decline in activity around Mosul but would bode ill for Iraq’s neighbour.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
Diyala province was the most hostile part of Iraq last week, with incidents concentrated between Ba’qubah and Jalawlah towns. Babil was very quiet in contrast. Even the normally stable province of Wassit saw at least one attack and numerous police operations targeting suspected criminals and terrorists. Baghdad has been quieter than normal over recent weeks but the weekend attack on a police academy illustrates the fact that terrorists can still overcome the security measures in place in the city. These measures are currently being tested ahead of the Arab League summit at the end of March and while they are likely to help reduce the overall number of security incidents taking place in the city they should not be regarded as exhaustive.

South
The southern provinces remain far quieter than the central provinces but they nonetheless continue to see sporadic incidents. There were numerous police operations last week in cities such as Nassiriyah and Basrah. Dozens of suspected criminals and terrorists were arrested, highlighting the fact that threat groups still exist in the region, and caution still needs to be exercised.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.