There was no significant increase or decrease in the number of attacks recorded in Iraq last week but the fatality figure doubled from the previous week. At least 101 people were killed and 216 injured in nationwide incidents. Conditions appear to have worsened since the US military pullout at the end of 2011 and the situation does not bode well for the coming months.

Tactics
A total of 30 bomb attacks left 41 people dead and 136 injured last week. An additional suicide bombing in Za’faraniyah district in Baghdad left at least 32 people dead and 71 injured while over the last few days a second suicide bombing has hit Diyala province. The number of small arms attacks has been high over the past fortnight and last week the tactic left 27 people dead and eight injured. There was a relatively low number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), with one person injured by the tactic. There were no reported kidnappings.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Geographic Distribution
Violence was concentrated in Baghdad, the central provinces, Kirkuk and Mosul. There was also a spike in violence in the towns of Tuz Khurmatu (Salah ad-Din province) and Ba’qubah (Diyala province). Conditions worsened in the capital, while there was a slight reduction in violence in the north of the country. The Kurdish region remained quiet, as did the south of the country, although a number of unknown blasts were reported in Basrah.

Sticky Bombs
Recent days have seen a rise in the number of sticky bombs reported in the country. Sticky bombs are also known as Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Devices (UVIEDs). They are usually magnetic in nature and are affixed to a target vehicle before being detonated – usually by remote control. A rise in the tactic was also reported in spring 2011, as outlined in this Iraq Business News Article. UVIEDs are normally used to kill a specifically targeted individual, such as a ministry employee or senior member of the Iraqi security forces. Personnel should inspect their vehicles before and after every journey, even minor ones, if they are in unsecure parts of the country. Look out for any suspicious devices around the underside of the vehicle as you approach it, and be aware of your surroundings. Most of the devices are detonated by remote control by an operator who is situated within eyesight.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

AKE has updated its security, travel and political risk guidance on the country on the website Global Intake. For further details or to purchase access to the report please visit the site here.

According to a report from Bloomberg, Iraq will complete the initial planning for a 150,000 barrel-a-day refinery in Kirkuk in April.

Shaw Energy & Chemicals Ltd. has completed 60 percent of the refinery’s front-end engineering and design (FEED) phase, the director general of North Refinery Company, Abdulghafoor Abduljabbar said at an oil forum in Tokyo on Friday.

The FEED phase has already been completed for a 150,000 bpd plant in Maysan [Missan], a 200,000 bpd facility in Karbala [Kerbala], ,and a 300,000 bpd refinery in Nasiriya [Nassiriyah].

(Source: Bloomberg)

AKE has compiled statistics covering violence in Iraq over the course of 2011. The average week saw 56 attacks, many of which included bombings targeting civilians on an indiscriminate basis. The Iraqi security forces also suffered numerous attacks and will likely remain a major focus for militant groups now that the US military has withdrawn from the country. A total of 1716 explosive attacks took place, with 78 of them involving suicide bombers. Eighty-three people were also kidnapped, with many remaining in captivity or unaccounted for.

Weekly Fatalities in Iraq - figures fluctuated throughout 2011

Casualties
AKE also documented at least 2893 fatalities over the year. However, the true figure is almost certain to be much higher. AKE figures are collated on a ‘spot’ basis, i.e. they are taken within 24 hours of a violent incident and do not take into account those who have died later from their injuries. The monitoring agency Iraq Body Count recorded a rise in civilian casualties in 2011, with 4,059 documented fatalities over the course of the year.

Q4 Conditions
Between October and December Baghdad was the most violent part of the country. The capital saw an average of 2-3 attacks per day, accounting for 38 per cent of all the violence in the country over the period. The next most hazardous province was Ninawa where the city of Mosul saw an average of 1-2 attacks per day. Other violent areas included the volatile and socially-mixed province of Ta’mim (Kirkuk) as well as the central provinces of Anbar, Babil, Diyala and Salah ad-Din.

Frequency of Incidents Oct-Dec 2011

Greener Pastures
The Kurdish provinces were very quiet, although they saw a small number of incidents, including cross border military operations by Iran and Turkey and a rise in localised social tensions in certain areas. The south of Iraq also saw very little violence. The quietest provinces in the whole of the country were Muthanna and Najaf which saw no major incidents of violence at all in the last quarter of the year. Even the oil-rich and previously troubled  provinces of Basrah and Maysan were far quieter than their counterparts in the centre and north of the country.

The Energy Sector
Such improvement in the southern region bodes well for the numerous companies looking to do business in the area in 2012. However, with ongoing violence, including a significant bombing in central Basrah the day before an oil and gas conference last year, security will likely remain a major consideration over the coming months for the industry.

Planning for 2012
AKE maintains a real-time security, political and travel risk report on Iraq, which readers can purchase here.  It contains risk assessment material, projections on how the security and political risk environment is likely to evolve over the coming year, travel guidelines and advice, as well as an archived database of analysis on the country stretching back to 2003. You can also obtain a free trial of our emailed intelligence by filling in your details here.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, an international risk mitigation firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can follow him on twitter here, and you can view the company website here.

The number of attacks taking place in Iraq actually fell last week. Nonetheless, the associated number of casualties was still much higher than average. At least 100 people were killed and 261 injured in nationwide incidents, several of which targeted Shi’ah pilgrims gathering to commemorate Arba’een. Violence was concentrated in the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk in the north, as well as Ramadi and Ba’qubah in the central provinces.

North
In Ta’mim province on 13 January a suicide bomber driving a car laden with explosives attacked the home of a senior police officer in northern Kirkuk, injuring two people. The only fatality was the terrorist himself, which is relatively low for a tactic often responsible for dozens of killings. Kirkuk does not see regular suicide bombings at present but it has done in the past. The tactic could become more common in the area in the future if inter-communal relations deteriorate and violence rises. Another suicide attack in the northern region took place in Mosul on the same day. Police raided a house in the west of the city, shooting dead two suspected militants inside before a third man detonated an explosive belt, injuring two of the officers.

Centre
Co-ordinated attacks struck Anbar province on 15 January when militants detonated bombs and attacked police stations and a power facility using guns and RPGs. The police responded and clashes continued for some time in what bears the hallmarks of similar attacks by al-Qaeda in Iraq. On a number of occasions over the past two years terrorists have detonated bombs around a targeted building, then attacked using firearms and suicide belts with the intent of taking hostages temporarily and then causing multiple casualties. Most of the assailants die during such attacks.

Baghdad was relatively quiet last week, with a lower than normal number of incidents recorded in the city. The security forces were on high alert for Arba’een and are believed to have prevented several attacks. Nonetheless, a suicide bomber still managed to kill several people in an attack in the south of the city, indicating that even with the authorities in a state of vigilance, terrorists are still able to engage in open violence.

South
At least 53 people were killed and 130 injured in a suicide bombing targeting Shi’ah pilgrims in Basrah on 14 January. While three more suicide bombings in the capital and north of the country left nine people dead and 32 injured but it was the southern incident which claimed the most lives. While the authorities can claim credit for having prevented a number of attacks over the course of Arba’een, they will nonetheless be blamed by many for failing to protect members of the public. Stops at vehicle checkpoints may now increase on main routes in the southern provinces and cars with number plates from the central region may be specifically singled out for stop and search exercises. Personnel are advised to comply and ensure that all the necessary paperwork and vehicle registration is in order.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

AKnews reports that up to 26 foreign companies are engaged in preparations to build a 500 MW power plant in Kirkuk.

Kirkuk currently requires 880 MW, but can only provide 450 MW: 240 MW from the national grid and 225 MW through a contract with Kurdish investor.

Rebwar Talabani, the Deputy head of Kirkuk Provincial Council, told AKnews that American, British, Turkish and Arab companies are building the 500 MW plant the Council approved last year.

The location for the project will be decided in coordination with the power distribution and transportation offices.

A small new power plant was built in December in the Darman village area of Kirkuk.

(Source: AKnews)

AKnews reports that the Iraqi Ministry for Tourism will begin renovating Kirkuk’s historic citadel in early February.

Deputy head of Kirkuk’s archeology office told AKnews that the ministry has not announced the allocated budget for the project.

She added this is the second time the citadel, located in the central Kirkuk, will be renovated. The first time just parts of the citadel were refurbished.

The citadel is almost 5,000-year-old and 18 meters high citadel, and contains the shrines of Prophet Daniel. The former Iraqi regime sidelined this ancient site.

(Source: AKnews)

Bloomberg reports that Iraq will increase its exports of Kirkuk crude for January from the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan (pictured) by 3.5 percent from last month.

The loading program obtained by comprises 18 cargoes totaling 13.88 million barrels, or 447,742 barrels a day, compared with 432,677 barrels a day for December.

The cargo sizes range from 300,000 barrels to 1.1 million barrels.

Loading programs are monthly schedules of crude shipments compiled by field operators to allow buyers and sellers to plan their supply and trading activities.

(Source: Bloomberg)

AKnews reports that officials in Kirkuk have laid the cornerstone of a 600-unit housing complex worth 16.5 billion Iraqi Dinars (about US$13 million).

The project, undertaken by a local Iraqi company, is funded by the province’s petrodollar money. Kirkuk is one of the richest provinces in the country after Basra, which exports the majority of Iraq’s oil production.

The project in southern Kirkuk will be completed in 8 months, and the units will be given at low prices to needy families from all ethnic groups.

A second project is being implemented in northern Kirkuk province to be sold to local residents under the same arrangements.

(Source: AKnews)