Bloomberg reports that militants have bombed an Asiacell equipment building near Mosul, damaging the mobile phone operator’s network and knocking out service in some northern areas.

The four attackers, some of whom wore military uniforms, held guns to the heads of security guards late on Thursday and planted four large explosives in a building housing routing and switching equipment, Asiacell chief executive Diar Ahmed said.

“One of [the devices] exploded and caused severe damage to the network. The other three were dismantled,” Ahmed said. “It’s a partial outage in (Nineveh) province but it’s the majority to be honest.”

The centre, located in a normally safe area in a Mosul free trade zone, just 60-70 metres from a police station, serves Nineveh province and parts of neighbouring Dahuk. Work crews hoped to restore service later on Friday.

Ahmed said he suspected the al Qaeda-affiliated insurgent group Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) was behind the attack. Mosul is considered an al Qaeda stronghold.

“The ISI has threatened our offices and our employees in Mosul many, many times because we work with the government,” he said.

There were no reported injuries.

(Source: Bloomberg)

There was no significant increase or decrease in the number of attacks recorded in Iraq last week but the fatality figure doubled from the previous week. At least 101 people were killed and 216 injured in nationwide incidents. Conditions appear to have worsened since the US military pullout at the end of 2011 and the situation does not bode well for the coming months.

Tactics
A total of 30 bomb attacks left 41 people dead and 136 injured last week. An additional suicide bombing in Za’faraniyah district in Baghdad left at least 32 people dead and 71 injured while over the last few days a second suicide bombing has hit Diyala province. The number of small arms attacks has been high over the past fortnight and last week the tactic left 27 people dead and eight injured. There was a relatively low number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), with one person injured by the tactic. There were no reported kidnappings.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Geographic Distribution
Violence was concentrated in Baghdad, the central provinces, Kirkuk and Mosul. There was also a spike in violence in the towns of Tuz Khurmatu (Salah ad-Din province) and Ba’qubah (Diyala province). Conditions worsened in the capital, while there was a slight reduction in violence in the north of the country. The Kurdish region remained quiet, as did the south of the country, although a number of unknown blasts were reported in Basrah.

Sticky Bombs
Recent days have seen a rise in the number of sticky bombs reported in the country. Sticky bombs are also known as Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Devices (UVIEDs). They are usually magnetic in nature and are affixed to a target vehicle before being detonated – usually by remote control. A rise in the tactic was also reported in spring 2011, as outlined in this Iraq Business News Article. UVIEDs are normally used to kill a specifically targeted individual, such as a ministry employee or senior member of the Iraqi security forces. Personnel should inspect their vehicles before and after every journey, even minor ones, if they are in unsecure parts of the country. Look out for any suspicious devices around the underside of the vehicle as you approach it, and be aware of your surroundings. Most of the devices are detonated by remote control by an operator who is situated within eyesight.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

AKE has updated its security, travel and political risk guidance on the country on the website Global Intake. For further details or to purchase access to the report please visit the site here.

AKE has compiled statistics covering violence in Iraq over the course of 2011. The average week saw 56 attacks, many of which included bombings targeting civilians on an indiscriminate basis. The Iraqi security forces also suffered numerous attacks and will likely remain a major focus for militant groups now that the US military has withdrawn from the country. A total of 1716 explosive attacks took place, with 78 of them involving suicide bombers. Eighty-three people were also kidnapped, with many remaining in captivity or unaccounted for.

Weekly Fatalities in Iraq - figures fluctuated throughout 2011

Casualties
AKE also documented at least 2893 fatalities over the year. However, the true figure is almost certain to be much higher. AKE figures are collated on a ‘spot’ basis, i.e. they are taken within 24 hours of a violent incident and do not take into account those who have died later from their injuries. The monitoring agency Iraq Body Count recorded a rise in civilian casualties in 2011, with 4,059 documented fatalities over the course of the year.

Q4 Conditions
Between October and December Baghdad was the most violent part of the country. The capital saw an average of 2-3 attacks per day, accounting for 38 per cent of all the violence in the country over the period. The next most hazardous province was Ninawa where the city of Mosul saw an average of 1-2 attacks per day. Other violent areas included the volatile and socially-mixed province of Ta’mim (Kirkuk) as well as the central provinces of Anbar, Babil, Diyala and Salah ad-Din.

Frequency of Incidents Oct-Dec 2011

Greener Pastures
The Kurdish provinces were very quiet, although they saw a small number of incidents, including cross border military operations by Iran and Turkey and a rise in localised social tensions in certain areas. The south of Iraq also saw very little violence. The quietest provinces in the whole of the country were Muthanna and Najaf which saw no major incidents of violence at all in the last quarter of the year. Even the oil-rich and previously troubled  provinces of Basrah and Maysan were far quieter than their counterparts in the centre and north of the country.

The Energy Sector
Such improvement in the southern region bodes well for the numerous companies looking to do business in the area in 2012. However, with ongoing violence, including a significant bombing in central Basrah the day before an oil and gas conference last year, security will likely remain a major consideration over the coming months for the industry.

Planning for 2012
AKE maintains a real-time security, political and travel risk report on Iraq, which readers can purchase here.  It contains risk assessment material, projections on how the security and political risk environment is likely to evolve over the coming year, travel guidelines and advice, as well as an archived database of analysis on the country stretching back to 2003. You can also obtain a free trial of our emailed intelligence by filling in your details here.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, an international risk mitigation firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can follow him on twitter here, and you can view the company website here.

The year 2012 has not begun well for Iraq. Levels of violence rose in the country last week, with at least 107 people killed and 300 injured in nationwide incidents. Several of the latest bombings have targeted pilgrims gathering in the centre of the country to mark Arba’een. The holy religious period is currently at its culmination, but attacks may continue over the coming days as worshippers return home following the conclusion.

North
In Ninawa province violence was concentrated in the city of Mosul while attacks were dispersed through the province of Ta’mim, where the contested city of Kirkuk is located. Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) territory also saw a number of violent incidents, but they were largely related to low-level criminality and local disputes rather than politics or terrorism. Perhaps the most notable incident in the north was an explosive attack directed against equipment belonging to Angolan energy firm Sonangol. No-one was harmed during the incident but the attack serves as a reminder that oil and gas firms remain an attractive target for militants in the country. They are a political pressure point for groups trying to send a signal to the government, as well as an emblematic representation of the international community. The fact that many of these firms work in parts of the country (and wider world) where operational risks can be quite high means that safety and security will continue to play a major role in the industry. Indeed, perhaps there is no sector better equipped for the rigours of a hostile environment than those already compliant with extensive industry-wide HSEQ legislation.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
Much of the violence last week was concentrated in the centre of the country. Security measures are currently heightened as the country marks the Shi’ah holy period of Arba’een. The event sees numerous Shi’ah pilgrims converging on mosques and shrines, particularly in Karbala. Terrorist attacks targeting the event should be anticipated over the coming days and large crowds should be avoided. At least four people were kidnapped in Iraq over the course of the week, including a Turkmen contractor who managed to escape within 24 hours of his abduction in northern Salah ad-Din province. Another kidnap victim, held for an unspecific period of time was also rescued during an operation in Diyala province. The police regularly manage to free kidnap victims in the country, which is re-assuring as regards their growing abilities. However, it is likely that many more kidnap cases go unreported and unsolved. Conditions are not as bad as during earlier years when the kidnap industry was widespread and highly lucrative, but it certainly remains a concern in the country. AKE has just released its quarterly kidnap report. If you would like to enquire about purchasing a copy please email intel@akegroup.com.

South
The southern region remains one of the quietest parts of the country with very few incidents of violence recorded last week. However, a suicide bomb targeted a gathering of Shi’ah pilgrims in Dhi Qar province, killing at least 44 people and injuring over 80. The attack was the first in Dhi Qar province in 10 weeks and the first suicide bombing in the south of the country in over four months. Security searches along the Baghdad-Nassiriyah highway were increased and are likely to remain fairly rigorous for at least a week as Arba’een draws to a close.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Levels of violence fell in Iraq over the past week, a welcome change following the spate of attacks on 22 December. At least 20 people were killed and 82 injured nationwide. This is at the lowest end of the usual figure range of 20 to 90 fatalities in any given seven-day period over recent months. In total, a fall in the number of countrywide bomb attacks left 12 people dead and 40 injured. A notable drop in small arms attacks left 10 people dead and three injured. A higher than normal number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) left five people injured.

North
There was a decline in violence in the north of the country but Ta’mim and Ninawa provinces were still the most afflicted parts of the country last week. The Kirkuk-Dibis area in Ta’mim province saw the most attacks, followed by the Mosul-Tal ‘Afar area in Ninawa province. Kurdistan remained quiet.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq, the last 6 months

Centre
Conditions were quieter than normal in the central provinces, with a scattering of incidents in Anbar, Diyala and Babil provinces. Salah ad-Din had slightly more attacks but still not sufficiently enough to cause undue alarm over the region. A number of open sources have warned that al-Qaeda cells are being re-activated in the region, particularly in Diyala province. While conditions have not yet escalated as a result of any such activation, caution should still be exercised and organisations should continue to monitor the situation closely. Last week, Baghdad also saw a decline in violence, but it was still the subject of a suicide bombing against the Interior Ministry earlier in the week and the security forces remain on guard after the bloody attacks of 22 December.

South
There were no major incidents of violence recorded in the south of the country last week. As usual, it remains far quieter than the central and northern provinces, but with emerging clashes between rival Shi’ah militant organisations in the country it should still be regarded as potentially volatile. Conditions could worsen now that the US military has withdrawn from the country. Many are concerned that groups with links to Iranian elements may in particular step up their efforts to consolidate their position in the region. Western organisations in particular should continue to regard security as a major requirement for any sustainable business operations in the south.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

As the US military withdrawal continues, levels of violence rose in Iraq over the past week. Incidents were concentrated in Baghdad, Mosul and Kirkuk, while the southern city of Basrah also saw a bomb attack the day before an international oil and gas conference opened in the city. Otherwise there has been a countrywide rise in the number of small arms attacks, which denotes a rise in targeted assassinations. Security force personnel and ministry employees should therefore be on their guard amid the risk of further such attacks over the coming weeks. Security in general is also being increased for the month of Muharram which is expected to see further attacks against the country’s Shi’ah population, particularly those due to travel on pilgrimage to Karbala over the coming days.

North
Levels of violence rose in the provinces of Ninawa and Ta’mim last week, with a series of attacks in both Mosul and Kirkuk. In Kirkuk in particular there are concerns that the withdrawal of US forces, who played a strong mediating role amongst the local security forces, will lead to a rise in social tensions at a community and security force level. Meanwhile Turkish military forces continue their cross border operations in the Qandil Mountains. Fighting is continuing despite the onset of winter weather conditions, but the frequency of operations is likely to go into decline over the coming weeks.

Weekly Violence in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
On 28 November a suicide bomber driving a car filled with explosives attacked a prison building in Taji. At least 19 people were killed and 24 injured in the blast, which is believed to have been aimed at releasing several of the inmates. A large number of suspected Ba’athists are being held in the jail after a series of arrests in Salah ad-Din province, a subject which remains highly emotive amongst residents of the central region. On the same day as the Taji attack a blast took place in the International/Green Zone (IZ) in Baghdad. Initially thought to have been a mortar attack there is mounting evidence that the incident involved a suicide bomber driving a car laden with explosives. The investigation is ongoing but if so, this would be the first bombing in the IZ since April 2007 and will raise questions over the ability of the Iraqi security forces to protect the country after the US military withdrawal. AKE maintains that there are no grounds for complacency amongst those living and working in the IZ. It is also worth noting that several districts in the so-called ‘Red Zone’ see far fewer incidents of violence, and the IZ should not be regarded as the only area where foreign organisations can base themselves in the city. Numerous firms, bodies and NGOs continue to report positive experiences from living and working beyond the blast walls of the city centre.

South
While most of the southern provinces remained quiet last week, terrorists attacked a busy marketplace in Basrah, the day before an international oil and gas conference began in the city, killing and injuring several people, including a large number of police officers. With major oil companies pulling their employees back from the conference at the last minute because of the bombings the terrorists may have been trying to send a signal to the international community and would-be investors that the US military is leaving Iraq in a state of instability. However, the conference was still well-attended and busier than the 2010 event. Despite ongoing uncertainty over the security environment in the country there are still numerous companies keen to participate in the development of what could be considered one of the world’s most exciting emerging markets. Security should be regarded as a manageable obstacle to business, not an inhibitor to investment. Companies willing to tackle the issue of risk rather than avoid the country altogether will find it an extremely lucrative market that remains far from saturated.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Levels of violence rose in Iraq over the past week, particularly in Mosul and the central provinces. There was a rise in bomb attacks, a steady number of shootings and at least two injuries caused by indirect fire (rockets and mortars). At least one person was kidnapped in the north of the country. The head of a local journalist association was shot and injured in Diyala province, while the police managed to stop suicide bombings in both Baghdad and Mosul.

North
Mosul saw more violence than Baghdad last week, while the divided and hotly contested city of Kirkuk has also seen an increase in violence over recent days. Inter-communal tensions appear to be rising and many are concerned for prospects for stability once the US military leaves. Further north there have been several cross-border Turkish military operations in the Qandil Mountains over recent days but no civilian casualties or property damage have been reported. Such operations tend to go into decline at this time of year as winter weather conditions start to set in, making it difficult to fight.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
There was one attempted suicide bombing in Baghdad last week, but the police managed to stop the would-be terrorists before they had the chance to detonate their significant amount of explosives. Otherwise the capital has been relatively quiet. Elsewhere in the central provinces there have been at least three separate attacks on US military interests over the past week, and anxieties are growing countrywide over the prospects for stability once American troops have left. Militancy is likely to gradually rise following their departure, but it remains to be seen whether or not anticipated ebb and flow of violence will trigger any major escalation in militancy and civil unrest. Security gains of the last few years will undoubtedly remain fragile for much time to come.

South
There were no major incidents of violence recorded in the south of Iraq last week. Conditions remain far quieter than the central and northern provinces, although this should not be taken as grounds for any complacency. Security is likely to be heightened in Basrah over the coming days as the city hosts an international oil and gas conference. This will significantly reduce the risk of violence over the period although organisations should still ensure that employees are properly trained, insured and protected prior to a journey to the area. For any security and logistical assistance for the conference readers are advised to contact the AKE Iraq office at akebaghdad@akegroup.com.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Last week saw a notable decline in attacks in Iraq, but incidents have worsened once again over the past three days. Activity was concentrated in the central provinces, although Baghdad itself remained unusually quiet until Sunday. Conditions now appear to be returning to an unfortunate level of normality. Roadside bombings are currently the most commonly occurring risk, with a gradual decline in shooting attacks over the past three months. Targeted assassinations are ongoing, particularly against the police, but ministry employees are not currently being murdered at the same rate as earlier in the year. Kidnap for ransom remains an issue, with at least two people abducted over the past week, including a child freed by the authorities in Karbala, and a government employee who remains missing in Ta’mim province.

North
Like many other parts of the country, Mosul was quieter than normal last week, although a spate of attacks against local mayors and the police over the past few days appears to signify that the lull in activity has been temporary only. There were no incidents recorded in Kirkuk last week, but conditions remain tense, with ongoing concerns over the long-term prospects for the divided city now that US military forces are withdrawing. Kurdistan remains stable, and while there was at least one cross-border military operation by Turkey last week, it took place in a relatively isolated area. Activity is now likely to go into decline until March, with fighting conditions very difficult as snow covers more and more of the Qandil Mountains.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
The most hazardous part of the country is currently the central provinces. Incidents remain concentrated in eastern Anbar province, western Diyala province and southern Salah ad-Din province. While Baghdad was quiet last week, conditions have started to worsen once again. On 13 November a child was abducted by criminals in the normally quiet and relatively well defended province of Karbala. However, the police intervened and managed to free the victim within a few hours, arresting the assailants. Children remain an attractive target for kidnap gangs as they tend to evoke a strong response, not just from their immediate family, but from extended family members and even the wider community who in the past have raised the necessary sum to ensure their release.

South
There were no major incidents recorded in the south of Iraq last week. Conditions remain far more quiet than the central and northern provinces, although this should not be taken as grounds for any complacency. Gaps in security persist and determined terrorist organisations intent on conducting attacks in the region will still be able to do so. Security is likely to become gradually more heightened over the coming two weeks ahead of a notable conference due to take place in Basrah city. The authorities will not want to take any chances as a variety of business travellers prepare to visit the city. Delegates who have any questions about the security environment ahead of the event please contact the AKE Iraq office.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.