AKE has compiled statistics covering violence in Iraq over the course of 2011. The average week saw 56 attacks, many of which included bombings targeting civilians on an indiscriminate basis. The Iraqi security forces also suffered numerous attacks and will likely remain a major focus for militant groups now that the US military has withdrawn from the country. A total of 1716 explosive attacks took place, with 78 of them involving suicide bombers. Eighty-three people were also kidnapped, with many remaining in captivity or unaccounted for.

Weekly Fatalities in Iraq - figures fluctuated throughout 2011

Casualties
AKE also documented at least 2893 fatalities over the year. However, the true figure is almost certain to be much higher. AKE figures are collated on a ‘spot’ basis, i.e. they are taken within 24 hours of a violent incident and do not take into account those who have died later from their injuries. The monitoring agency Iraq Body Count recorded a rise in civilian casualties in 2011, with 4,059 documented fatalities over the course of the year.

Q4 Conditions
Between October and December Baghdad was the most violent part of the country. The capital saw an average of 2-3 attacks per day, accounting for 38 per cent of all the violence in the country over the period. The next most hazardous province was Ninawa where the city of Mosul saw an average of 1-2 attacks per day. Other violent areas included the volatile and socially-mixed province of Ta’mim (Kirkuk) as well as the central provinces of Anbar, Babil, Diyala and Salah ad-Din.

Frequency of Incidents Oct-Dec 2011

Greener Pastures
The Kurdish provinces were very quiet, although they saw a small number of incidents, including cross border military operations by Iran and Turkey and a rise in localised social tensions in certain areas. The south of Iraq also saw very little violence. The quietest provinces in the whole of the country were Muthanna and Najaf which saw no major incidents of violence at all in the last quarter of the year. Even the oil-rich and previously troubled  provinces of Basrah and Maysan were far quieter than their counterparts in the centre and north of the country.

The Energy Sector
Such improvement in the southern region bodes well for the numerous companies looking to do business in the area in 2012. However, with ongoing violence, including a significant bombing in central Basrah the day before an oil and gas conference last year, security will likely remain a major consideration over the coming months for the industry.

Planning for 2012
AKE maintains a real-time security, political and travel risk report on Iraq, which readers can purchase here.  It contains risk assessment material, projections on how the security and political risk environment is likely to evolve over the coming year, travel guidelines and advice, as well as an archived database of analysis on the country stretching back to 2003. You can also obtain a free trial of our emailed intelligence by filling in your details here.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, an international risk mitigation firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can follow him on twitter here, and you can view the company website here.

Conditions continue to fluctuate in Iraq. Levels of violence rose slightly last week, but in the absence of any major mass casualty attacks the overall number of fatalities fell from the previous week. At least 47 people were killed and 71 injured in nationwide incidents. Countrywide, a total of 25 bomb attacks left 16 people dead and 40 injured. An additional suicide bombing in Babil province left three people dead and 18 injured. A notable rise in the number of small arms attacks left 28 people dead and 13 injured. Two Iraqi nationals were abducted in Ta’mim province while the body of a British national, abducted in 2007, was finally handed over to the authorities. The central provinces experienced the lion’s share of violence. Iraqi Kurdistan saw no major incidents of violence at all,

North
The cities of Kirkuk and Mosul remain very hazardous, with almost daily attacks in both. The police and military remain the most common target of militant attacks in the non-Kurdish governed north of the country although civilians are also regularly being singled out because of their community backgrounds. Members of the Shabak community were hit by a bombing against an IDP camp in Bartala, near Mosul last week, for example.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
Militant and terrorist activity was concentrated in the centre of the country – particularly Diyala province around Ba’qubah. Baghdad also saw several attacks although the capital is currently quieter than normal. Indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) in the city left no casualties and only limited damage last week. Nonetheless, one of the attacks targeted the Turkish embassy, signalling a warning for nationals of the country that they are as much at risk of being singled out for attacks as other foreigners. For some time, Turkish nationals have been able to ‘slip under the radar’ in Iraq, blending in and travelling low profile. Nonetheless, Turkish nationals were amongst those abducted in the country last year and with worsening relations between Baghdad and Ankara Turkish organisations should perhaps consider reviewing their security measures in place at present. Low-profile measures will probably suit the majority of Turkish firms and nationals for now. Blending in should still be regarded as the best means of mitigating risk. Nonetheless, at least some protection should be regarded as better than nothing.

South
No major incidents were reported in the south of the country last week although unknown blasts were reported in Basrah on 25 January. Under-reporting remains a concern in the region and while it is certainly far quieter than the centre and north of Iraq it should not be regarded as ‘safe’.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

The number of attacks taking place in Iraq actually fell last week. Nonetheless, the associated number of casualties was still much higher than average. At least 100 people were killed and 261 injured in nationwide incidents, several of which targeted Shi’ah pilgrims gathering to commemorate Arba’een. Violence was concentrated in the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk in the north, as well as Ramadi and Ba’qubah in the central provinces.

North
In Ta’mim province on 13 January a suicide bomber driving a car laden with explosives attacked the home of a senior police officer in northern Kirkuk, injuring two people. The only fatality was the terrorist himself, which is relatively low for a tactic often responsible for dozens of killings. Kirkuk does not see regular suicide bombings at present but it has done in the past. The tactic could become more common in the area in the future if inter-communal relations deteriorate and violence rises. Another suicide attack in the northern region took place in Mosul on the same day. Police raided a house in the west of the city, shooting dead two suspected militants inside before a third man detonated an explosive belt, injuring two of the officers.

Centre
Co-ordinated attacks struck Anbar province on 15 January when militants detonated bombs and attacked police stations and a power facility using guns and RPGs. The police responded and clashes continued for some time in what bears the hallmarks of similar attacks by al-Qaeda in Iraq. On a number of occasions over the past two years terrorists have detonated bombs around a targeted building, then attacked using firearms and suicide belts with the intent of taking hostages temporarily and then causing multiple casualties. Most of the assailants die during such attacks.

Baghdad was relatively quiet last week, with a lower than normal number of incidents recorded in the city. The security forces were on high alert for Arba’een and are believed to have prevented several attacks. Nonetheless, a suicide bomber still managed to kill several people in an attack in the south of the city, indicating that even with the authorities in a state of vigilance, terrorists are still able to engage in open violence.

South
At least 53 people were killed and 130 injured in a suicide bombing targeting Shi’ah pilgrims in Basrah on 14 January. While three more suicide bombings in the capital and north of the country left nine people dead and 32 injured but it was the southern incident which claimed the most lives. While the authorities can claim credit for having prevented a number of attacks over the course of Arba’een, they will nonetheless be blamed by many for failing to protect members of the public. Stops at vehicle checkpoints may now increase on main routes in the southern provinces and cars with number plates from the central region may be specifically singled out for stop and search exercises. Personnel are advised to comply and ensure that all the necessary paperwork and vehicle registration is in order.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Levels of violence fell in Iraq over the past week, a welcome change following the spate of attacks on 22 December. At least 20 people were killed and 82 injured nationwide. This is at the lowest end of the usual figure range of 20 to 90 fatalities in any given seven-day period over recent months. In total, a fall in the number of countrywide bomb attacks left 12 people dead and 40 injured. A notable drop in small arms attacks left 10 people dead and three injured. A higher than normal number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) left five people injured.

North
There was a decline in violence in the north of the country but Ta’mim and Ninawa provinces were still the most afflicted parts of the country last week. The Kirkuk-Dibis area in Ta’mim province saw the most attacks, followed by the Mosul-Tal ‘Afar area in Ninawa province. Kurdistan remained quiet.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq, the last 6 months

Centre
Conditions were quieter than normal in the central provinces, with a scattering of incidents in Anbar, Diyala and Babil provinces. Salah ad-Din had slightly more attacks but still not sufficiently enough to cause undue alarm over the region. A number of open sources have warned that al-Qaeda cells are being re-activated in the region, particularly in Diyala province. While conditions have not yet escalated as a result of any such activation, caution should still be exercised and organisations should continue to monitor the situation closely. Last week, Baghdad also saw a decline in violence, but it was still the subject of a suicide bombing against the Interior Ministry earlier in the week and the security forces remain on guard after the bloody attacks of 22 December.

South
There were no major incidents of violence recorded in the south of the country last week. As usual, it remains far quieter than the central and northern provinces, but with emerging clashes between rival Shi’ah militant organisations in the country it should still be regarded as potentially volatile. Conditions could worsen now that the US military has withdrawn from the country. Many are concerned that groups with links to Iranian elements may in particular step up their efforts to consolidate their position in the region. Western organisations in particular should continue to regard security as a major requirement for any sustainable business operations in the south.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

A deal for US fighter jets and tanks will not be stopped by political instability, reports Al Jazeera.

The deal is reportedly for USD11bn-worth of weaponry. Since the US pulled out its remaining troops two weeks ago, violence has increased, arrest warrants have been issued against senior politicians opposing prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, and opposing factions have made demands for decentralising power to such an extent and in such a way that it would probably require amending the constitution.

Alexandre Vautravers, editor of Swiss Military Review, told Al Jazeera: “If the US did not sell weapons to Iraq, the weapons would still materialise, perhaps from Russia or China, or perhaps from Iran.”

Although the weaponry is advanced, it is not cutting edge. ”The types of weapons which have been sold, F-16s, M1 Abrams tanks, these vehicles, these aircrafts, have been designed 20 or 30 years ago.”

According to Vautravers, the US accounts for nearly 60% of arms sales to the Middle East.

(Sources: Al Jazeera)

150,000 refugee Iraqi’s have returned to Iraq from seemingly more unstable countries, according to AKNews.

Iraqi immigration minister Dindar Dosk said that these Iraqis, who escaped from Iraq after the Iraq War began, have now returned since the outbreak of protests in the Arab world over the past year, in particular from Yemen, Libya, Egypt and Syria.

“We have registered 150,000 Iraqi families who have returned to Iraq and still there are others who want to come back,” said  Doski.

Millions of Iraqis fled to Syria and Jordan during and after the Iraq War with smaller numbers getting further, even to Europe and the USA.

(Sources: AKNews)

Summary
Levels of violence rose in Iraq over the past week, with dozens of people killed and injured in a series of attacks in Baghdad on 22 December. Meanwhile, the political crisis between senior politicians also endures, posing a significant risk to overall national stability and raising the possibility of major internal strife over the course of the coming year.

Statistics
In total, at least 105 people were killed and 253 injured in nationwide violence last week, which was concentrated in the capital, as well as the northern cities of Kirkuk and Mosul. At least 48 separate bomb attacks left 82 people dead and 228 injured. Small arms fire attacks left 14 people dead and 13 injured.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months. Note the notable rise in the number of incidents reported last week.

Kidnap Risk
Last week the US authorities issued a statement warning of the imminent risk of kidnap posed to American nationals. Evidently kidnap remains a major risk in the country and foreign personnel are advised not to become complacent. Iraqis continue to be abducted on a regular basis. The Iraqi authorities managed to free two kidnap victims in separate incidents in the north and centre of the country last week and dozens more are likely to be taken over the coming months. If you would like to receive AKE’s quarterly kidnap brief please complete your details here.

Baghdad Violence
There were several attacks over the course of 22 December in Baghdad, which left up to 70 people dead and almost 200 injured. The bombings, which were later claimed by al-Qaeda in Iraq took place in the districts of Abu Dshir, Adhimiyah, Allawi, Amil, Bayaa, Dourah, Ghazaliyah, Harthiyah, Jihad, Karradah, Mansour, New Baghdad, Qaddisiyah, Qahirah, Sha’ab, Shu’lah, Shurtah and Yarmouk as well as along Abu Nawas street, Maghrib street and Mohammed al-Qassim highway. Targets included a garage, school, hospital and the integrity commission office in Karradah, as well as gatherings of civilians, targeted on an indiscriminate basis.

Warning Signs
Previous AKE reports indicated that the authorities were expecting another mass-casualty terrorist attack and the country was indeed statistically overdue. What needs to be determined now is whether or not this latest spate of attacks, following the US military departure, signals a change in the tempo of violence. Organisations should review their security measures in light of the potential for a deterioration in conditions and be prepared for the frequency of attacks to increase from now on. Even organisations working in normally well patrolled districts such as Karradah, Jadriyah and even the International/Green Zone are reminded that they are not immune from risk. Indeed, it is precisely these districts which should be regarded as possible targets, not least because of their high profile and political weight.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Levels of violence fell in Iraq over the past week, with attacks concentrated in Mosul, Baghdad and Kirkuk. There was a scattering of incidents throughout the central provinces and a notable bombing attack on oil and gas infrastructure in Basrah province. Bomb attacks left at least 15 people dead and 77 injured, a decline from the previous week, while a consistent number of small arms attacks left 15 people dead and seven injured. There were no suicide attacks recorded over the course of the week, and the country should now be considered statistically overdue.

Politicking
The political situation appears to have deteriorated considerably over recent days. There are growing concerns that the arrest warrant for vice prime minister Tariq al-Hashimi will bring Iraq’s political communities to the brink of confrontation. Whether or not there is truth in the allegations made against al-Hashimi, the ongoing pursuit of alleged Ba’athists and suspected terrorists from the Sunni community in the central provinces will increase suspicions amongst the public that a witch hunt is underway. This is hardly a situation conducive towards reconciliation, development and advancement in the post-US era of the country and does not bode well for stability and security in 2012.

The Withdrawal
AKE issued a risk advisory for Iraq following the withdrawal of US forces which concluded on 17 December. US counter-insurgency operations will no longer take place on the ground while training of the Iraqi security forces has also been significantly scaled back. The country now faces a security gap, which various threat groups, both domestic and external may attempt to capitalise on. Violence may therefore rise over the course of 2012, not least as the political environment appears to growing more competitive and confrontational.

Medical Concerns
From a practical perspective foreign personnel will no longer be able to rely on advanced medical treatment in the event of illness or injury in the country. Organisations should therefore aim to be as medically self-sufficient as possible and ensure that employees have sufficient evacuation, repatriation and insurance cover in advance of travel. Organisations should also strongly consider taking medically trained personnel with them on deployments. For further information on security and medical support in the country please email operations@akegroup.com.

Abductions
Three people were kidnapped in separate incidents in the central provinces last week, including a mayor in Babil province who was later found shot dead. Three ministry employees abducted last week were also found shot dead in Salah ad-Din province. AKE will be producing its quarterly update on worldwide kidnap trends in the new year. If you would like to be added to the mailing list please complete your details here.

Basrah Bombings
Up to three improvised explosive devices targeted oil pipelines servicing southern oilfields last week. There were no casualties but open sources indicate that the pipes were damaged and local output was reduced by half for at least a day. While an investigation is ongoing, there is widespread speculation over the threat group behind the incident. With the perpetrators potentially either from local communities along the length of the pipeline, or amongst energy workers themselves, the importance of due diligence, employee consultation and community engagement has once again been highlighted. It is not economically feasible to station guards along the entire length of pipeline infrastructure, but engaging with local communities and staying in close communication with employees will work well towards mitigating the risk of further violence. Needless to say, close relations with local communities will also work towards empowering the Iraqi public and illustrating that the energy sector is there for the good of the country, and not to steal a sovereign resource.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.