By Tom Walker, Director, Assaye Risk

COUNTRY OVERVIEW

Heightened levels of violence and increased sectarian tensions dominated reporting in Iraq this week.  The relative uneasy calm of last week was shattered by an increase in bombings, IDF attacks and assassinations across the country, with the majority of the violence predominantly in the North and Centre of Iraq.  In line with this higher tempo of attacks the number of country wide fatalities rose proportionally to a 2013 high of approx. 170 killed during the week (the majority by IED actions), further bringing the yearly total up to appox. 483.  The increased operational tempo of the ISF has continued through the week, however in contrast to previous weeks the hard stance and dampening affect seen last week appears to have had little effect on insurgent operations in key areas such as Mosul and Diyala.

Interwoven themes – The Iraqi budget, the demonstration movement and mounting sectarian tensions – dominated the national media this week. Friday prayers on 01 Mar once again saw a mass mobilisation of the Sunni community across the country in protest against GoI.  Despite the peaceful nature of the movement the fact that Sunnis are now mobilising in such large numbers has alarmed Western diplomats, who fear the demonstrations could re-spark the sectarian conflict that plagued the country between 2005 and 2008.  This increase in activity by the Sunni community has led to a classic counter reaction from Shia insurgents groups, taking the form of heavy posturing, widespread intimidation and assasinations, most notably by a new group called the Mukthar Army, an Iranian backed militia, who rose to prominence earlier this year. Furthermore, much is being reported of the accusations, made by Sunni politicians, that the authorities are seeking to escalate sectarian tensions through similar means in order to provoke a strong sectarian backlash that provides the pretext to forcefully break up the protest movement.

At the international level the conflict from Syria spilled across into Iraqi territory this week with sharp consequences.  The early part of the week saw increased activity by rebel groups inside Syria targeting government positions in close proximity to the Iraqi border.  Incursions, strafing and rocketing were reported along the length of the Iraqi / Syrian frontier with Rabee’a border crossing point coming under direct contact from fighting inside Syria.  Syrian warplanes repeatedly violated Iraqi airspace apparently bombing and strafing the Yaarabiya border crossing point in Nineveh province from Iraqi airspace.  Reports also suggested that the Iraqi Army had fired upon Syrian rebels.  Of particular note was the ambushing in western Iraq of a convoy repatriating Syrian soldiers who had fled intense fighting on the border, which resulted in the deaths of approx. 62, including 9 members of the ISF.

By Gary Sandiford, Olive Group’s Dubai based assessments manager.  Olive Group is a leading provider of security and technology solutions and has operated continuously in Iraq since 2003.

Overview

Olive Groups Iraq statistics are drawn from multiple sources, including media reporting and direct liaison with in country assets. Included within the statistics are a minority sub-set of serious incidents which may not be purely attributable to insurgent/terrorist groups, such as murder, kidnappings and organised crime activities.

The total number of reported incidents in Iraq for the period 21-27 January 2013 was 161.  This marks a reduction from last week’s exceptionally high figure; however, it still remains above the current twelve month average of 126 and represents a relatively busy period for many northern and central areas of the country.  As such the approximate two month phase of heightened (if uneven) violence can be seen to have continued this week.  While the Baghdad and North regions recorded slightly above average incident levels for the week, it is the North Central and West Regions that contributed most to the relatively high total.  The South Central and South East Regions by contrast remained very subdued.  Of particular note, there were numerous large mass-casualty attacks this week, including a suicide-bombing at a Turkmen funeral in Tuz Khormato, and a small series of vehicle-bomb attacks across the Baghdad Region.

Overview

Olive Groups Iraq statistics are drawn from multiple sources, including media reporting and direct liaison with in country assets. Included within the statistics are a minority sub-set of serious incidents which may not be purely attributable to insurgent/terrorist groups, such as murder, kidnappings and organised crime activities.

The total number of reported incidents in Iraq for the period 14 – 20 January 2013 was 212.  This is statistically the highest figure of the last 12 months and marks a return to exceptionally busy reporting following a brief lull last week.  The North Central Region constituted the largest proportion of this increase; however the North, Baghdad and South Central regions also recorded above average levels.  Interestingly, the recent high figures have come in the absence of a well-defined attack series, which generally accounted for high weekly totals in 2012.  Rather it appears that insurgents may be seeking to maintain smaller, but more frequent rates of activity. 

By Gary Sandiford, Olive Group’s Dubai based assessments manager.  Olive Group is a leading provider of security and technology solutions and has operated continuously in Iraq since 2003.

Overview

Olive Groups Iraq statistics are drawn from multiple sources, including media reporting and direct liaison with in country assets. Included within the statistics are a minority sub-set of serious incidents which may not be purely attributable to insurgent/terrorist groups, such as murder, kidnappings and organised crime activities.

The total number of reported incidents in Iraq for the period 7 to 13 January 2013 was 142.  This is a reduction by more than 50 incidents from the exceptionally high figure recorded last week; however it remains significantly higher than the current twelve month weekly average of 123.  The South and South Central regions were subdued, relative both to the rest of the country and local trends.  Elsewhere, figures were roughly on par with the trends seen over the last twelve months, signalling a return to more normal levels of violent activity following a particularly busy three week period.  In addition to lower figures, the size and sophistication of most incidents was appreciably reduced this week, with relatively few successful high-profile or mass-casualty attacks occurring.  This lull may result from the depletion of resources following a particularly active period, though multiple factors are likely at play.  Diyala Province bucked the improved trend this week, with unusually high levels of insurgent and other violent activity continuing. 

By Gary Sandiford, Olive Group’s Dubai based assessments manager.  Olive Group is a leading provider of security and technology solutions and has operated continuously in Iraq since 2003.

Overview

Olive Groups Iraq statistics are drawn from multiple sources, including media reporting and direct liaison with in country assets. Included within the statistics are a minority sub-set of serious incidents which may not be purely attributable to insurgent/terrorist groups, such as murder, kidnappings and organised crime activities.

The total number of reported incidents in Iraq for the period 31 December 2012 to 6 January 2013 was 205.  This is a significant increase from last week’s figure and is well above the current weekly average and continues the pattern of exceptionally busy reporting in Iraq seen since the week beginning 17 December. The increase this week was driven primarily by the North Central Region, with North and West Regions also recording above average activity levels.  By contrast Baghdad and the South East and South West Regions were on par or below their weekly averages, which reflects relatively quiet conditions on the ground in all areas save north Babil and Karbala, which witnessed some attacks on pilgrims at the end of the Arba’een pilgrimage.  The last seven days have also seen further demonstrations stemming from the arrest of a number of (Finance Minister) Rafi Issawi’s bodyguards in late December 2012.

By Gary Sandiford, Olive Group’s Dubai based assessments manager.  Olive Group is a leading provider of security and technology solutions and has operated continuously in Iraq since 2003.

Overview

Olive Groups Iraq statistics are drawn from multiple sources, including media reporting and direct liaison with in country assets. Included within the statistics are a minority sub-set of serious incidents which may not be purely attributable to insurgent/terrorist groups, such as murder, kidnappings and organised crime activities.

The total number of reported incidents in Iraq for the period 10-16 December 2012 was 147. This is above the 2012 weekly average of 118 and is an increase on last week’s total of 134. The high number of national incident levels can be attributed to the significant increase in the North Central Region. With the exception of a minor increase in activity levels in the South Central Region, all other regions recorded lower figures than for the last reporting period. There was a much more consolidated insurgent effort to undermine security along the Tigris and Diyala River Valleys.

By Gary Sandiford, Olive Group’s Dubai based assessments manager.  Olive Group is a leading provider of security and technology solutions and has operated continuously in Iraq since 2003.

Overview

Olive Groups Iraq statistics are drawn from multiple sources, including media reporting and direct liaison with in country assets. Included within the statistics are a minority sub-set of serious incidents which may not be purely attributable to insurgent/terrorist groups, such as murder, kidnappings and organised crime activities.

The total number of reported incidents in Iraq for the period 3-9 December 2012 was 134.  This is above the 2012 weekly average of 118 and is a slight increase on last week’s total of 131.  Insurgent activity remained at elevated levels following the coordinated attack series on 27 and 29 November, but saw a return to attacks against more routine targets such as government and security personnel. The political impasse between the Federal Government and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over the establishment of the Tigris Operations Command (TOC) continues, and despite recent international involvement there is still no resolution.  Towards the end of the next reporting period, Shia pilgrims will begin their travels to Karbala for Arba’een  (3 January 2013), with the pilgrimage starting up to 15 days prior by those travelling on foot.  Such events remain a target for Sunni insurgent groups and attacks against pilgrims travelling along major routes, and against rest areas where pilgrims congregate are considered likely.

By Gary Sandiford, Olive Group’s Dubai based assessments manager.  Olive Group is a leading provider of security and technology solutions and has operated continuously in Iraq since 2003.

Overview

Olive Groups Iraq statistics are drawn from multiple sources, including media reporting and direct liaison with in country assets. Included within the statistics are a minority sub-set of serious incidents which may not be purely attributable to insurgent/terrorist groups, such as murder, kidnappings and organised crime activities.

The total number of reported incidents in Iraq for the period 26 November – 2 December 2012 was 131.  This is above the 2012 weekly average of 118 and an increase on last week’s total of 119.  This week was dominated by a two-wave coordinated attack-series on 27 & 29 November, with all regions except the South East Region being targeted.  This week also saw the reported capture of the Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) Emir, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi on 2 December; a significant arrest that will in the short term at least have an impact on AQI’s strategic direction.  The two-wave coordinated nationwide attack series on 27 & 29 November 2012, involved at least 20 reported vehicle-bomb (VBIED) and suicide initiated vehicle-bomb (SVBIED) attacks, of which seventeen detonated. There were also numerous improvised explosive device (IED) attacks and shooting incidents over the period, a number of which may have been linked to the attack series.  The first wave of attacks on 27 November were predominantly focused on the northern and central provinces, with the second wave of attacks on 29 November focused on the central and southern provinces. It was reported that the attacks killed 80 people and wounded over 200.  The attacks came just days after the Shia religious observance of Ashura.