Levels of violence rose in Iraq last week despite heightened security measures put in place ahead of the Arab League Summit. It was the worst week since a series of terrorist attacks targeted Shi’ah pilgrims during Arba’een at the beginning of January and the fourth-worst week recorded over the past six months. At least 73 people were killed and well over 270 injured in nationwide incidents although this figure is liable to be higher given the difficult reporting climate surrounding the spate of attacks recorded on 20 March. Violence was concentrated in Mosul, Baghdad and the central provinces.

North
While many of the attacks took place in the central provinces, levels of violence also rose in the north of the country. Conditions have eased once again over the last two days but the area remains one of the more hazardous parts of the country. Incidents remain concentrated in Mosul, although Kirkuk is also volatile, with an ongoing risk of inter-communal tensions, bombings and shootings, with the latter two tactics being particularly targeted against the police. Kirkuk also remains one of the worst parts of the country for abductions. AKE will be issuing its next quarterly kidnap and ransom report next week. For further details or to purchase a copy please email intel@akegroup.com.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
With the Arab League Summit taking place in the capital the operating environment was rendered very difficult this week, with conditions still being affected at the time of writing. Routes around the city have been closed to cars and even pedestrians in many areas. The official schedule for re-opening remains subject to change and there is little that organisations can do except prepare for last-minute alterations in the security plan. Mobile network coverage has also been restricted, making communications very difficult. Anyone requiring medical assistance or evacuation by the authorities in the city are advised to telephone the public telephone number 404 for assistance The same number can be used to report suspicious activity.

South
The south of Iraq saw heightened security measures over the course of the week like many other parts of the country. However, conditions remained quiet and there were no major incidents reported.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

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As security measures are heightened ahead of the Arab League Summit in Baghdad levels of violence fell in Iraq last week with 26 people killed and 22 injured in nationwide incidents. This was a drop by half from the previous week and a very low figure in general for the country.

However, a spate of attacks swept the country on 20 March, killing at least 50 people and injuring over 250. The bombings have been claimed by al-Qaeda in Iraq and as analysed on Iraq Business News were likely an attempt to discredit the government. Many are now questioning the security measures put in place ahead of the summit although at the time of writing the event is still set to go ahead. To cancel it at this stage would constitute a major loss of face.

Managing Traffic
The government has announced that a public holiday will begin on 25 March, lasting beyond the course of the event. Official buildings will be closed and traffic congestion in Baghdad will be reduced as a result. This will make it easier for the security forces to manage the traffic and search more vehicles moving around the city. This is turn will hopefully make it more difficult for terrorists to infiltrate, but travel conditions will still be difficult for the personnel who continue to work in the capital.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months. Note the decline in violence over the past week. Next week's bar will likely see a notable rise.

Violence Last Week
In the run-up to the latest assault conditions were relatively quiet countrywide. Only six bomb attacks were recorded last week, which is less than a third of the usual weekly figure. For a change, more people were killed in shooting attacks than in bomb blasts, with 18 people shot dead and 14 injured against only seven killed and eight injured by explosive devices over the course of the week.

Geographical Distribution
Attacks were concentrated in the northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, with a scattering of attacks in districts surrounding the capital. Basrah also saw a demonstration on Monday as local residents and attendees from elsewhere in the southern provinces gathered to complain of a lack of development and high unemployment in the oil-rich region.

A number of blasts have also been reported in the city although they appear to have slipped under the radar of in-country news coverage. No casualties have been reported but security has been increased around central Basrah in response and personnel are reminded that conditions are neither ‘safe’ nor ‘stable’ in what should otherwise be considered a city with strong economic opportunities. Companies are still encouraged to look to the city as a good investment, but proper risk mitigation measures need to be put in place prior to any serious investment.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

After a long series of attacks against the police, it is the Iraqi government which appears to have been the primary target in the latest bout of attacks in Iraq.  A spate of at least 26 bombings and shootings around the country left dozens of people dead on 20 March. Incidents were recorded in Abu Ghraib, Baghdad, Balad Ruz, Bayji, Daquq, Dhulu’iyah, Hillah, Karbala, Latifiyah, Mosul, Muqdadiyah, Ramadi, Samarra, Tikrit and Tuz Khurmatu, stretching from Ninawa in the north to Babil in the centre of the country.

Targeting
While the police were amongst those targeted in the attacks, the provincial government, councillors and even the Ministry of Foreign Affairs were also singled out. Given the co-ordination of the attacks at a time of heightened security in the country it is likely that a large organisation was responsible. Suspicion falls on al-Qaeda in Iraq, given the tactics and targeting. If they are indeed behind the attacks their motive would likely be an attempt to discredit the government and send a signal to the many world leaders looking to visit Baghdad for the upcoming Arab League Summit on 27-29 March.

Attacks in Iraq - 20 March 2012

The Government Response
In the aftermath of the violence security has been tightened even further and traffic conditions are reported to be chaotic in the capital. As well as an existing curfew on motorbikes and carts in Baghdad, the government announced earlier today that the country is to have a national holiday for one week from 25 March. Ministries will shut so government workers do not need to travel to work. This will likely limit congestion, but with additional security checks it is likely that travel will still be subject to disruption. Furthermore, terrorist groups will still likely be able to conduct attacks. They continue to defy the increased security procedures of the government to great effect.

AKE Advice
Personnel should factor in additional time for any planned movements, and try to minimise non-essential travel around Baghdad at this time. Organisations which continue to work during the holidays may also wish to provide temporary accommodation for their Iraqi staff at their place of work so that they can avoid the anticipated commuter disruption of the coming weeks. It is also advisable to stock up on non-perishable foods, medicines and other supplies in case it becomes difficult to obtain such goods during the holiday.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.
 

Levels of violence rose in Iraq last week. At least 70 people were killed and 76 injured in nationwide incidents, although this figure does not include the ‘emo’ and LGBT fatalities widely reported in open sources within Iraq over the past two weeks. A significant rise in the number of small arms fire attacks left 32 people dead and six injured. At least 27 of those fatalities were inflicted during a series of night time attacks on police officers in Hadithah, Anbar province. Otherwise a total of 21 bomb attacks left 13 people dead and 39 injured.

The North
Three of the above mentioned bomb attacks involved a suicide bomber, including a double bombing in the northern town of Tal Afar (in Ninawa province) which left 20 people dead. The northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk also saw a spate of attacks last week, including two kidnappings in Kirkuk city centre. As warned in recent reports, the Turkish military has also increased its cross-border military operations in the Qandil Mountains in pursuit of Kurdish separatist group the PKK. This regularly occurs during the month of March when winter weather conditions begin to ease. However, the majority of the region will remain unaffected by the activity and Iraqi Kurdistan is still regarded as a relatively secure place in which to do business.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

The Centre
Violence was concentrated in the central provinces last week. Baghdad itself was relatively quiet although a series of attacks against the police and jewellery shops in the north of the city and left several people dead. Meanwhile, security measures are being increased in the capital ahead of the Arab League Summit at the end of the month. The authorities announced that a 24-hour ban on carts and motorbikes would be imposed citywide from 17 March. They have not announced when the curfew will end (it will likely be subject to trends in violence and they will not want to give a specific date for terrorists to plan around) but it could last for up to two weeks. Travel around the city centre will likely become difficult as searches and safety measures are being increased around security checkpoints.

Emo and LGBT Killings
As covered in open sources, young emo and Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender (LGBT) individuals have been threatened harassed and even killed by unknown individuals in recent weeks. It would appear that vigilantes are singling out their victims for failing to adhere to what are regarded as religious norms. The victims are reported to have been killed with the use of bricks: a painful and horrific method likely aimed at instilling fear amongst other members of the community. Official sources have not yet confirmed the death toll, with some still denying that they are taking place.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

Levels of violence fell in Iraq last week, although the welcome trend was cut short on Sunday night. Militants wearing security force uniforms shot dead at least 27 police officers in a well-planned attack in Haditha. Not including this total, at least 36 people were killed and 41 injured in nationwide incidents last week.

February Trends
In general, levels of violence crept up in Iraq towards the end of February, although in review it was a relatively quiet month. The authorities reported a total of 151 fatalities, including 91 civilians, 39 policemen and 21 soldiers killed by militants during the month. Last week a drop by almost half in the total of bomb attacks left 19 people dead and 35 injured countrywide. There was no major change in the number of small arms attacks reported which left 11 people dead and three injured. Indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) left two dead and three injured.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Geographic spread
Baghdad remains quieter than normal, although it still accounted for several of the week’s attacks, as did the northern city of Mosul where conditions appear to have gradually worsened once again after an unusual quiet period over recent weeks. The south of the country remains quiet, with many expressing optimism over the potential for growth and development in the region. Nonetheless security risks and the potential for wider unrest persists.

There were two shooting incidents reported in the normally secure Kurdish region last week, although they are believed to have been related to personal disputes rather than politics or ideology. At least one person was also killed in a landmine explosion to the north-east of Kirkuk, highlighting the ongoing risk posed by unexploded ordnance – even in secure parts of KRG territory.

Kidnap risk
Perhaps more positively was a police operation on 6 March which reportedly led to the freeing of a hostage civilian held in Ta’mim province. While the Iraqi security forces continue to report successes in tracking down kidnap victims whilst also detaining their captors, the issue of kidnap for ransom remains a major one which personnel need to face, regardless of whether they are foreign or Iraqi. Foreigners in particular remain attractive from a kidnapper’s point of view because of the potentially large ransom they might be able to negotiate in return for their release. Proper risk mitigation measures therefore need to be in place prior to doing business in the country.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

A series of night time raids starting late on Sunday killed at least 27 police officers in the Anbar town of Hadithah. The police continue to suffer regular attacks but this latest incident appears particularly brutal. In the month of February official sources report that at least 39 policemen were killed at the hands of militants but this latest attack has left two thirds of that number killed in the space of just a few hours.

The assailants are reported to have been wearing official army uniforms while open sources also reported that they were driving vehicles with Ministry of the Interior markings. If accurate this could indicate a number of things but it does not necessarily denote any official involvement in the killings.

Uniforms
Iraqi security force uniforms have been widely available in parts of the country for years. While the government has previously tried to restrict the private sale of uniforms it is nonetheless still possible for militant groups to obtain them on the black market. Vehicle registrations can also be fabricated, particularly in isolated areas where there are fewer checkpoint searches and the necessary administrative resources to verify vehicles on the road.

Militants in the past have also stolen uniforms and vehicles from the authorities so as to create disguises for attacks. During the height of the insurgency ambulances were even hijacked on occasion so that militants could smuggle in large amounts of explosives to conduct attacks in crowded city centre areas, often in the aftermath of an initial smaller attack where police and paramedics had gathered. Killing such specialised professionals had a devastating impact on the response capabilities of the Iraqi authorities.

Motives
By attacking the police the militants will lower morale amongst the force and convince others not to join the profession. The fewer police officers there are, the easier it is for terrorists to operate. This has made it a regular target of groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq for years.

Whoever is behind the late night killings, the incident will likely stoke further frustration amongst the Sunni community that they are not being suitably protected by the government. At a time when members of the Sahwah organisation still face employment uncertainty there is evidently a need for greater imposition of state security in many parts of the country. Many civilians in the most seriously affected areas are only going to question the ability of the authorities in light of the latest incident. There may now be low level protests in majority Sunni towns in response to a perceived lack of protection in the area.

Current Trends
Anbar province has seen an average of 4-5 attacks per week so far this year, making it one of the more hazardous parts of the country. However, incidents have been concentrated mainly in the towns of Fallujah, Karma and Ramadi in the east of the province. Hadithah and more sparsely populated west of the province have been much quieter, although with old smuggling routes, terrorist sympathisers and a lack of police resources there are evidently still threat groups operating in the region.

In general, levels of violence crept up in Iraq towards the end of February, although in total it was a relatively quiet month. The authorities reported a total of 151 fatalities, including 91 civilians, 39 policemen and 21 soldiers. Terrorist attacks are likely to persist in March despite an expected heightening of security measures ahead of the Arab League summit. With media attention on the country ahead of the high profile event it would be a good opportunity for terrorists to engage in violence so as to discredit the Iraqi authorities and raise the profile for their various political demands.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. If you are travelling to Iraq to cover the Arab League summit you can access AKE’s travel risk intelligence website Global Intake here. You can also obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

After weeks of declining violence in February, the number of attacks rose once again in Iraq over the last week of the month. At least 53 people were killed and 245 injured in nationwide incidents, which is moderately high, albeit not as high as the figures of over 100 recorded fatalities in some of the weeks at the beginning of the year. There was a rise in the total number of bombings reported and a consistent number of shootings, but more positively there were no kidnappings or indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) recorded. The gradual decline in attacks in February followed by the latest rise is illustrated in the graph below.

North
Mosul in the north has been unusually quiet for at least two weeks, raising concerns that militants in the area have been looking elsewhere to conduct attacks. The spate of bombings which took place around the centre of the country last week could indicate that they have turned their attention to the heartland of the country, although there are also ongoing fears that some of the militants have headed across the border into neighbouring Syria.

Centre
The central region saw the majority of attacks last week, especially around Ba’qubah and Baghdad. Countrywide, a rise in the total number of bomb attacks last week left 39 people dead and 242 injured, but most of the incidents took place in Baghdad and the central provinces. A steady number of small arms fire attacks left 14 people dead and three injured, notably in the capital.

The region suffered a number of attacks on 23 February, a day when co-ordinated bombings struck cities between Hillah and Mosul. Bombs hit Salah ad-Din, Diyala and Babil provinces, as well as Baghdad. In total, at least 50 people were killed and dozens injured, with incidents largely targeting the security forces. However, civilian and judicial interests were also singled out.

The attacks have since been claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq, the Sunni militant organisation affiliated with al-Qaeda, and they may have been timed to coincide with two events. Firstly, the Iraqi government announced that the security situation had improved in the country, so foreign leaders would have no reason to doubt being able to travel to Baghdad for the Arab League summit at the end of March. The attacks were therefore possibly aimed at discrediting the state, not just amongst the Iraqi public, but also amidst the wider region.

Car bombs remain a concern for politicians, travellers and Iraqis alike

Secondly, many (but not all) of the country’s politicians had gathered in parliament on the same day to debate and endorse the federal budget. It was a high-profile event attracting media attention, which was undoubtedly distracted by the numerous attacks taking place around the capital and wider country at the same time. The fact that politicians agreed to spend a significant amount of money on armoured cars appears to have been a particularly controversial decision made on the day.

South
While the southern provinces remain quieter than the north and centre of the country there are nonetheless ongoing hairline cracks in the veneer of overall security in the region. Local sentiment remains outwardly optimistic and positive towards the foreign investment arriving in the region but intra-Shi’ah community and political tensions persist and organisations still need to take security into strong consideration when working in the area. At present, there are rising tensions between rival Shi’ah political organisations, with at least one percussion explosive device detonated outside the home of a political figure north of Basrah last week. Demonstrators also tried to storm a municipal building in Nassiriyah on 24 February in protest at the ongoing closure of a political party office in the city. The security forces remain capable of dealing with low level unrest and sporadic political violence but if unrest gains momentum the security situation could deteriorate, potentially at short notice, over the coming months or even years. Amid the uncertainty, AKE has issued new travel risk analysis, guidance and advice on the country which can be accessed here.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.