Iraq is to get high-speed trains linking the provinces, a senior official at the Ministry of Transport said.

Talking to Aknews, deputy transport minister Bangin Rekani explained their desire for extensive railways and 240km/h trains. The plans have been presented to the cabinet for approval. The railways, which will provide a huge boost to the Iraqi economy, will also connect the country to its neighbors.

“The ministry has insufficient funds to implement the project, and therefore is awaiting the approval of the council of ministers to dedicate extra funds.”

France’s Alstom has already been in discussions to build and service a high-speed rail link between Baghdad, Iraq’s capital city, and the country’s second largest city, the port of Basra.

(Source: Aknews)

With ports and pipelines blocked in Libya, North Africa, and civil war moving into its sixth month, Iraq is set to benefit, says The National.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that foreign oil companies in Syria are reporting business as usual, despite escalating violence.

“Iraq is going to boom,” Erin Miller Rankin, a construction and project lawyer in Dubai at Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer was reported as saying. ”There will be people who were tied up on projects in Libya who will be looking for another place to invest.”

Yet it is not just the oil sector that will benefit. In order for Iraq to produce and export more oil, it needs to build more infrastructure, such as roads.

Ken Judge, director at Gulfsands Petroleum, said that disruption had so far been avoided, despite attacks on oil facilities.

“Whilst security is maintained at these facilities, we will remain able to operate our business,” he said.

(Source: The National; Reuters)

Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and his Kuwaiti counterpart, Naser al-Subah, have been talking directly by telephone to try to prevent a diplomatic crisis from worsening.

A spokesperson for Maliki said on Monday that Kuwait had shown “more flexibility” in ongoing discussions over a new Kuwaiti port.

Mubarak Port, due to be completed in 2016, has caused a huge storm to build between the two countries because it is believed by many that it will devastate Iraq’s maritime economy.

The Iraqi government wants Kuwait to pause the construction until it can be established that the port will not affect Iraqi interests. Kuwait has said that the building work cannot be put on hold.

The tensions have become so serious that there is now talk of war. This is a continuation of border disputes between the two countries lasting half a century, according to the Tehran Times.

However, Iraqi MP Ameer al-Kinani said that Kuwait will not go through with the port, because their neighbour’s economic interests will not be affected. Kuwait already has three ports to Iraq’s one deep-water port of Umm Qasr.

(Source: Iraqi Prime Minister’s Office; Aknews; Aswat al-Iraq; Tehran Times)

Levels of violence are rising in Iraq. While some commentators in the press are referring to the increase as a spike, regular readers of Iraq Business News will understand that the rise has actually been very gradual – but consistent – with the number of attacks building up all the way from the beginning of the year. Last week AKE raised the risk rating for the country on Global Intake amid the slowly deteriorating situation and while it is our opinion that Iraq remains a major business opportunity, companies nonetheless need to emphasise the health, safety and security elements of their projects so as to minimise the risk of harm to their staff and assets.

Blame

Groups have not claimed responsibility for the latest string of violence but AKE believes that there is more than one organisation involved. Three of the attacks, including one in Basrah province, involved well planned and co-ordinated attacks using suicide bombers. This is a hallmark of radical Sunni groups such as the Islamic State of Iraq, while the targeting of the government and security forces is also typical of the group. Al-Qaeda affiliated organisations still have intentions of creating their own religious state in the country. While they have been critically weakened over the past four years they remain unwilling to compromise or negotiate with what they see as a corrupt, foreign-backed and apostate government. At the same time, recent attacks in the capital have taken place in areas normally associated with Shi’ah groups, while the prevalence of rocket and mortar attacks also suggests their involvement. Threat groups evidently abound on both sides of the sectarian divide.

Potential Targets

Some of the latest attacks have specifically targeted the places where individuals are supposed to be protected. Military bases, police stations and government compounds have all been targeted. Even normally well-guarded districts such as Jadriyah in Baghdad have been hit. While the Green Zone has not recently been attacked, it may be next on the target list if militant groups want to make an impact on the foreign presence in the country. While it remains well defended against infiltration it is nonetheless still vulnerable to rocket and mortar attacks.

Analysis

There are several possible reasons why conditions have worsened over recent weeks. As mentioned, conditions have been deteriorating gradually since the beginning of the year. Many are frustrated with the government’s inability to provide electricity and jobs. Amid the ‘Arab Spring’ elsewhere in the region, Iraq too has suffered its own unrest, and some of the more radicalised elements of the frustrated population may be turning to militancy to express their dissatisfaction with the government.

The next weekly security update from AKE will show that conditions worsened once again in Iraq last week

The rise in attacks specifically against foreign interests is likely due to a different trend. The US is coming under increasing pressure to withdraw its military from the country by the end of the year. Amid speculation over the possibility of an extension of the Status Of Forces Agreement it could be that radical groups are attempting to send a strong signal to Washington that American forces are not welcome.

Advice

Foreign organisations looking to do business in the country should not be alarmed by what has been a very slow evolving trend in deteriorating security this year. However, safety needs to be treated as paramount when planning trips, meetings, accommodation and projects. Crisis management measures should also be taken into consideration. If you would like any assistance in planning an upcoming visit or you would like any advice in reviewing your current security measures please contact the AKE Iraq office at akebaghdad@akegroup.com

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found here while AKE’s intelligence and political risk website Global IntAKE can be accessed here.

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here.
You can also follow John Drake on twitter here.

Basra council decided this week to renovate and upgrade Basra International Airport as part of preparation to host the Gulf Cup in 2013, reports AKnews.

The airport is Iraq’s second biggest. Jabbar Amin Jaber, Basra Council chairman, said: “More than $100 million (116.5 billion Dinars) were allocated to begin the construction within the next couple of days.”

The airport will be brought up to international standards, and infrastructure in the surrounding area, including electricity on the roads leading to the airport, will also be upgraded.

It has spent much of its existence, spanning six decades, closed due to the two Gulf Wars and the Iraq War. Now it has several dozen international flights every day.

The Gulf Cup comprises of eight nations competing in football, volleyball, handball and basketball.

(Sources: AKnews)

Iraq has seen a rise in the number of sticky bomb attacks over the last week. This is a worrying trend, particularly for the state employees and security force personnel who are being singled out for these attacks.

The Tactic
Sticky bombs are also known as Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Devices (UVIEDs). They are usually magnetic in nature and are affixed to a target vehicle before being detonated – usually by remote control. UVIEDs are normally used to kill a specifically targeted individual, such as a ministry employee or senior member of the Iraqi security forces. Foreigners are not normally targeted, but foreign journalists have been singled out in attempted attacks in the past. All personnel should therefore exercise caution.

Distribution
The last six weeks have seen UVIED attacks across the country, but predominantly in eastern Anbar province and western Baghdad. The capital has witnessed at least 26 separate UVIED attacks alone. The weekend also saw an unusual spike in attacks in the northern city of Kirkuk. It is likely that several of the groups responsible are affiliated. Given the location of most of the attacks, many of the militants responsible may be associated with Sunni groups. The Shi’ah south of Iraq and east of Baghdad have seen far fewer UVIED attacks over recent months.

The following locations have suffered at least one UVIED attack over the past six weeks:

Recent UVIED attacks in Iraq

Iraq-wide: Ba’qubah, Baghdad, Fallujah, Iskandariyah, Karmah, Khanaqin, Kirkuk, Mahmudiyah, Mosul, Mussayab, Ramadi, Taji

Recent UVIED attacks in Baghdad

Baghdad-specific: Adhimiyah, Allawi, Amiriyah, Bayaa, Dourah, Ghazaliyah, Hurriyah, Khadraa, Mansour, Nidhal, Palestine Street, Qaddisiyah, Qahirah, Saydiyah, Yarmouk, Za’faraniyah

Recent Police Operations
On 13 April the police in Fallujah uncovered a factory being used to manufacture UVIEDs. The find may interrupt bomb-making activities in Anbar province, but there are likely to be several more such factories scattered throughout the central provinces, including in the capital. It is also likely that the bombs are being produced in the northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk as well.

Recommendations
For a start, vehicles should contain fire extinguishers, medical equipment and even window-breaking tools, which may be necessary in the event of an attack, particularly one which leaves vehicle occupants trapped.

The bombs are normally affixed to a vehicle that has been parked and left unattended. However, they have occasionally been attached to cars stuck in heavy traffic in central Baghdad. Personnel are therefore advised to exercise caution when travelling at times of congestion. Try to avoid allowing people to approach your vehicle, including street vendors and pedestrians passing through traffic.

Personnel must also inspect their vehicles before and after every journey, even minor ones. Look out for any suspicious devices around the underside of the vehicle as you approach it, and be aware of your surroundings. Most of the devices are detonated by remote control by an operator who is situated within eyesight.

When you park a vehicle, it should not be left unattended. The driver should always stay with it unless it is secured in a known and trusted location. Where this is not possible, try and find a parking attendant. They are commonly found in the city centre locations where UVIEDs are a risk, particularly in downtown Baghdad. Do not leave the vehicle for too long, and when you return, try to have the parking attendant approach the vehicle with you. If there has been any suspicious activity affecting your car they will not want to go near it.

Ultimately, UVIEDs are predominantly used against targets who have been selected and likely monitored for a period of time. As such, a key mitigating factor is to implement counter-surveillance techniques. Make it as difficult as possible for a would-be attacker to spot you, follow your behaviour and predict your movements. Avoid following routines in public places. Vary your routes and your appearance.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found at www.akegroup.com/iraq

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here http://www.akegroup.com/intelligence/trial-subscriptions.php

You can also follow John Drake on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

www.akegroup.com/iraq

Crisis management

When it was announced that the Arab League summit would take place in Baghdad, many leaders expressed concerns for the safety of the event. Now, several months later, the tables have turned in the Middle East, and some of those leaders are facing a much more hazardous situation at home.

It has been some time since so many crises affected the region. Many companies have been caught on the back foot. Those who were comfortable to work in relatively crime-free Libya found themselves in a war-zone overnight. Tourists in Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain were presented with chaos at the airport and the risk of violence in the streets. Firms have abandoned properties and employees found themselves stranded in compounds, unable to organise a proper evacuation.

Protests have taken place in Iraq like elsewhere in the region, but they are not having the same impact on commerce. The underlying grievances such as unemployment, impoverishment and a lack of services are as much of a concern here as anywhere else, but private companies have not been significantly affected.

One of the reasons they will not be as badly affected as firms elsewhere in the region is readiness. Companies operating in Iraq (should) have a series of measures in place to mitigate risks. Crisis management is much more likely to be part of the everyday culture of a firm working in the country. The security environment has necessitated it.

Nonetheless, now may be an opportune moment for companies to re-assess their crisis management procedures.

Contingencies

Having contingency guidelines in the first place is a good step. However, it is no use to have them stored in a document, gathering dust on a shelf. They need to be in the minds of people on the ground and even support staff outside of the country. In the event of a crisis there will be little time to read a book. Actions will need to be swift and fluid, by both those initiating crisis response steps in the country, and those with the responsibility of assisting them from outside of the country – such as travel planners, health and safety officers and even those with the responsibility of liaising with employee families. The only way to ensure fluidity is to undertake training and to practise measures on a regular basis, amongst all of the members of staff who will be involved in a crisis when it takes place.

If you have to get out

Evacuation plans should also be reviewed. Many companies will already have evacuation cover in place, but contracts should be checked in light of recent events. Examine the small print of your cover document, because many providers will only guarantee evacuation from the nearest safe airport. In crises in Libya and Egypt these airports were often in another country, which proved little use for employees stuck in gridlock in Cairo or worse – left stranded in the Sahara desert. Measures need to be in place to organise an evacuation by other means, such as boat or car.

Contracting firms should also review how their contingency plans will fit in with those of their client. With more than one organisation operating on a rig it should not be assumed that security will be provided by the largest company. This is often not the case, and certainly should not be something given over to chance.

Evacuation procedures will also vary from company to company, depending on their personnel, activities, location and resources. Evacuation plans therefore need to be bespoke. There is no one-size-fits-all contract that companies can sign and hope for the best. An energy firm with staff in the desert will have completely different evacuation requirements from a hotel firm in a busy tourist resort, or a banking office, construction company or consultancy firm.

Working towards managing a crisis is no easy undertaking. It can be costly and time consuming and will be an entirely different process for every company.

The Benefits

However, crisis management works, and while it has been less documented in the news there are numerous firms that managed to escape the situations in Libya and Egypt at the appropriate time. With a speedy response to the emerging crisis they were able to evacuate their personnel on a standard flight at standard cost before conditions deteriorated. Those that were less prepared and did not react in time were faced with either locking down and staying put or risking dangerous road movements and the elevated cost of chartering a plane once the situation had deteriorated.

Crisis management preparation quickly became a more cost effective policy than simply waiting to respond to a crisis if and when one arose. Furthermore, in the event that employees suffer harm the cost can be unquantifiable. You cannot put a value on the impact on their family, or indeed a company’s reputation.

There are no quick solutions and crisis management should be regarded as a long-term process. Nonetheless the potential benefits in the event of an emergency can be immeasurable. The cost of a crisis can very quickly outweigh the cost of mitigating a crisis, and the impact on company staff, assets and reputation can be irreparable.

As such, firms need to begin implementing measures sooner rather than later because if contingency plans are only reviewed when a crisis is taking place, it may be too late.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. For further information on crisis management please contact operations@akegroup.com.

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here http://www.akegroup.com/intelligence/trial-subscriptions.php

You can also follow John Drake on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

www.akegroup.com/iraq

Overview

Last week was one of the most violent in Iraq for several months. Over 120 people were killed and several hundred injured in a spate of suicide attacks. The total number of attacks reported did not significantly increase, but with at least seven of the attacks involving suicide bombers in very crowded areas it is no surprise that the death toll was so high. The majority of attacks targeted Shi’ah pilgrims on their way to Karbala to commemorate Arba’een, but several also targeted the security forces in blasts implicating Ba’qubah, Baghdad, Mosul and Tikrit. Meanwhile in contrast the south of Iraq and Kurdistan saw no violent incidents at all.

Weekly Iraq Violence Graph

North

While the attacks of last week were concentrated in the central provinces at least one suicide attack occurred in Mosul. The police managed to spot a suspicious vehicle as it approached a checkpoint in the city. When it failed to comply with their instructions they opened fire, causing the explosives inside the vehicle to detonate. The two occupants of the car were killed but no other casualties were reported. While Mosul remains one of the country’s more hazardous areas, the police continue to improve their capabilities. Indeed it could be argued that they are more experienced and “battle-hardened” than forces elsewhere in the country. Nonetheless in such a tense environment mistakes can still be made and personnel travelling in the area should take care not to drive suspiciously or erratically. Comply with police requests at checkpoints. Elsewhere in the north Kurdistan saw no incidents of violence, while Ta’mim province saw only one attack, with gunmen shooting at a joint US-Iraqi checkpoint in the Laylan area south of Kirkuk.

Central

Last week was the bloodiest in the central region since this analyst started collating casualty figures on the region in 2007. As warned in previous updates, terrorists targeted Shi’ah pilgrims as they travelled to Karbala to commemorate Arba’een. The tactic of choice was suicide bombing, and the target was large crowds of people. This type of attack has always incurred a high number of casualties. Suicide bombings were recorded in Ba’qubah, Dourah (in Baghdad), Karbala, Mosul, Ramadi and Tikrit, leaving well over 100 people dead and over 400 injured. Now that Arba’een has concluded pilgrims have begun returning to their homes (often overseas, including in Iran and Bahrain). Further roadside attacks are to be anticipated, as should increased security measures on key routes around the centre of the country, but in general the frequency of attacks is now expected to decline.

Map of the Latest Suicide Bombings

South

As many Shi’ah pilgrims travelled from the southern provinces towards Karbala, security measures were heightened on several roads in the region. However, no major security incidents were recorded. The area remains considerably quieter than the central and northern provinces of the country, although this should not be taken as grounds for complacency. Criminal and even politically motivated terrorist groups still operate in the region and foreign firms need to ensure that they are protected. Foreign commercial interests are not currently being singled out for attacks but the US military continues to suffer roadside bombings, even around well used assets such as Basra International Airport. As such, the threat posed by southern militants is much lower than in the years prior to 2008, but it has certainly not diminished.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found at www.akegroup.com/iraq

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here http://tinyurl.com/245f9rm

You can also follow John Drake on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

AKE ltd