Overview

Last week was one of the most violent in Iraq for several months. Over 120 people were killed and several hundred injured in a spate of suicide attacks. The total number of attacks reported did not significantly increase, but with at least seven of the attacks involving suicide bombers in very crowded areas it is no surprise that the death toll was so high. The majority of attacks targeted Shi’ah pilgrims on their way to Karbala to commemorate Arba’een, but several also targeted the security forces in blasts implicating Ba’qubah, Baghdad, Mosul and Tikrit. Meanwhile in contrast the south of Iraq and Kurdistan saw no violent incidents at all.

Weekly Iraq Violence Graph

North

While the attacks of last week were concentrated in the central provinces at least one suicide attack occurred in Mosul. The police managed to spot a suspicious vehicle as it approached a checkpoint in the city. When it failed to comply with their instructions they opened fire, causing the explosives inside the vehicle to detonate. The two occupants of the car were killed but no other casualties were reported. While Mosul remains one of the country’s more hazardous areas, the police continue to improve their capabilities. Indeed it could be argued that they are more experienced and “battle-hardened” than forces elsewhere in the country. Nonetheless in such a tense environment mistakes can still be made and personnel travelling in the area should take care not to drive suspiciously or erratically. Comply with police requests at checkpoints. Elsewhere in the north Kurdistan saw no incidents of violence, while Ta’mim province saw only one attack, with gunmen shooting at a joint US-Iraqi checkpoint in the Laylan area south of Kirkuk.

Central

Last week was the bloodiest in the central region since this analyst started collating casualty figures on the region in 2007. As warned in previous updates, terrorists targeted Shi’ah pilgrims as they travelled to Karbala to commemorate Arba’een. The tactic of choice was suicide bombing, and the target was large crowds of people. This type of attack has always incurred a high number of casualties. Suicide bombings were recorded in Ba’qubah, Dourah (in Baghdad), Karbala, Mosul, Ramadi and Tikrit, leaving well over 100 people dead and over 400 injured. Now that Arba’een has concluded pilgrims have begun returning to their homes (often overseas, including in Iran and Bahrain). Further roadside attacks are to be anticipated, as should increased security measures on key routes around the centre of the country, but in general the frequency of attacks is now expected to decline.

Map of the Latest Suicide Bombings

South

As many Shi’ah pilgrims travelled from the southern provinces towards Karbala, security measures were heightened on several roads in the region. However, no major security incidents were recorded. The area remains considerably quieter than the central and northern provinces of the country, although this should not be taken as grounds for complacency. Criminal and even politically motivated terrorist groups still operate in the region and foreign firms need to ensure that they are protected. Foreign commercial interests are not currently being singled out for attacks but the US military continues to suffer roadside bombings, even around well used assets such as Basra International Airport. As such, the threat posed by southern militants is much lower than in the years prior to 2008, but it has certainly not diminished.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found at www.akegroup.com/iraq

You can obtain a free trial of AKE’s intelligence reports here http://tinyurl.com/245f9rm

You can also follow John Drake on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

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Overview

Last week saw a rise in the number of attacks taking place in Iraq. Militant activity was concentrated in the centre of the country and in the northern city of Mosul. There were at least three suicide bombings in Anbar and Ninawa provinces while a Kurdish civilian was reportedly kidnapped in Kirkuk. As warned last week, there has been a continuation of targeted shooting attacks in the capital. The Iraqi government subsequently issued a warning on 4 January putting the city authorities on high alert, and further shooting attacks should be anticipated. State employees and members of the Iraqi security forces are most at risk of being singled out.

North

For several weeks the north of Iraq has appeared uncharacteristically quiet. Police operations appear to have put militants on the back foot, with several being arrested, some being killed and many choosing to lie low temporarily so as to avoid getting caught. However, last week saw signs of a possible retaliation in Mosul, seen as a northern stronghold of radical Islamist groups, with an attack on the police headquarters and several blasts and shootings targeting police patrols and checkpoints. Otherwise in Kirkuk, a Kurdish civilian was reportedly abducted with no word received on any ransom demand made for his release. Approximately four to five Iraqi nationals are currently abducted every month in the country. For further details on ransom settlements and average detention periods please contact the AKE intelligence department for our latest report on worldwide kidnap and ransom trends: intel@akegroup.com.

Centre

Last week saw a rise in violence around Fallujah district (Anbar province), with bomb and shooting attacks targeting the police. A judge’s house was also attacked in Salah ad-Din province while a series of shooting attacks on members of the security forces and government employees in Baghdad left several people dead. Shooting attacks, often involving guns fitted with silencers have significantly increased in frequency over the past two weeks in the city. This was warned in last week’s report and on 4 January the government put the city on high alert in an attempt to tackle the issue. In a series of police operations the authorities discovered an illegal factory set up in the city centre to affix silencers to firearms. Unfortunately this discovery is not likely to disrupt the trend in targeted shootings. It is relatively easy to create silencers for firearms and Baghdad is already thought to contain a very large number of such weapons. However, if one positive aspect can be taken it is the fact that militants are no longer free to shoot and kill their victims in plain sight without fear of arrest. The police forces are now much improved from 2006 and earlier years and their increasing capabilities have forced militants to operate much more covertly in the city.

South

The south of the country remains relatively calm in comparison to the centre and north with few incidents recorded last week. A roadside blast was reported near a US convoy in Najaf, although no casualties or damage were confirmed. The police also defused several bombs on a main route north of Amarah in Maysan province, highlighting both their vigilance as well as the ongoing risk of roadside attacks on key routes in the area. High-profile vehicles and convoys are usually the most commonly targeted, with vehicles associated with the US military most at risk of being singled out.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found at www.akegroup.com/iraq

You can also follow John on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

AKE Ltd

As Baghdad ponders fewer checkpoints, oil exports sent by sea face more checks.

The capital has 870 security checkpoints, which have been blamed for slowing an already congested city down and inhibiting productivity. Some commuters must stop at half a dozen checkpoints each morning, sometimes waiting for an hour at just one of them.

Many residents find the checkpoints risible. According to Aljazeera, the guards merely ask travellers if they have any weapons and check the boot. They have UK-made equipment that is supposed to detect explosives, but this has been discredited, and export of the device has been banned by the UK.

However, an officer at one checkpoint said that he and his team recently found and defused a bomb underneath a minibus.

A decision on which checkpoints are to be removed, if any, should come in the next week, but as security is stepped down in the capital, ports at Iraq’s second city of Basra are having security increased, to the detriment of oil exports. Due to concerns of al-Qaeda threats on oil facilities, Reuters reports that new checks of tankers might delay the vessels by as much as four days.

(Source: Aljazeera, Reuters)

Over the coming week terrorists are likely to attack Shi’ah worshippers marking the religious period of al-‘Ashura. Many pilgrims will travel to the holy city of Karbala for the event, which culminates on 17 December and has seen numerous bouts of violence in recent years. Security will be tighter than normal, but roadside attacks against those travelling throughout the country will remain a possibility. Iranian pilgrims are likely to be a highly prized target but many will still brave the journey in vehicles travelling across the central provinces of Iraq. A number of people, including Iranians, have been killed and injured in bomb blasts targeting minibuses in the capital over recent days.

Route Security

The majority of attacks will target key routes, main checkpoints and vehicles. In an attempt to reduce the risk of violence a curfew may also be imposed, potentially at short notice in the coming days. This could affect ordinary travel plans in Baghdad and neighbouring provinces such as Wassit, Diyala and Babil, as well as around Karbala itself. Checkpoint guards are likely to be highly vigilant at this time, and many will be concerned at the risk of possible suicide bombings.

Karbala Province

Implications for the Shi’ah South

Even though explosive tactics are uncommon in the southern Shi’ah cities there will remain a risk of possible terrorist attacks even here. Basrah and Amarah have been targeted during the month of Muharram in the past and a number of arrests have been made over the past two weeks. The motivation of any such attacks will be to stir up sectarian tensions between Sunnis and Shi’ahs, as Sunni terrorists will most likely be blamed for any violence.

AKE Recommendations

Road travel may be impeded by congestion and travel restriction so personnel may wish to defer non-essential journeys around the event. Otherwise, when approaching checkpoints it will be very important to comply with all requests and to avoid acting erratically. The security forces will be looking for would-be terrorists and unusual behaviour could raise their suspicions unnecessarily. In general, personnel should also avoid Shi’ah mosques, commemorations, funerals and other religious gatherings for the duration of the event, while those specific intent on visiting for personal or even filming purposes are advised to exercise caution, try to avoid the most crowded of ceremonies and be prepared to get out of an area at short notice.

Historical Significance

Al-‘Ashura is not strictly a festival. It is a much more sombre affair marking the death of Husayn ibn Ali, a revered Shi’ah figure and grandson of the Prophet Mohammed. He died during the battle of Karbala’ in the seventh century AD at the time when Sunni and Shi’ah Islam became separate branches. The event therefore not only commemorates his death, but underscores the tragic separation of Iraqi’s two largest communities. Note that the period also occasionally sees attacks on Shi’ah communities elsewhere in the Islamic world. Possible flashpoints could include Shi’ah mosques and gatherings in Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan for example, although Iraq continues to see the worst of the bloodshed.

John F Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE Group, a British private security firm working in Iraq from before 2003. Further details on the company can be found at www.akegroup.com/iraq

You can also follow John on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

AKE Ltd

Baghdad’s airport road was considered the most dangerous motorway in the world, but the city is now turning it into “the most beautiful street in the world”, according to AFP.

The US military had called it ”RPG alley” (that’s rocket-propelled grenade), as road users were at the receiving end of particularly frequent attacks during 2006 and 2007. The road itself took a double beating from explosions and lack of maintenance, but it is now safer and heavily protected.

Baghdad mayor Saber al-Issawi said on Sunday that he will beautify the road before the city hosts the Arab League summit next March.

Iraq’s government has budgeted more than US$80 billion for infrastructure development, many of which are focusing on a number of large projects relating to construction and roads. Al-Issawi said: “More than 23 international companies from seven countries…will start at the end of this month to develop a large number of streets and places in Baghdad.”

“Included in those is Baghdad International Airport street, which extends from Baghdad airport to the Green Zone, at a cost of $200m, to transform it into the most beautiful street in the world.”

In all, for the summit, Baghdad is going to redevelop 50 roads and areas at a cost of $425m.

(Source: AFP, IRaq Business News)

Iraq’s developing situation continues to astound me when I contrast it with much of the west.

Take the UK, where Prime Minister David Cameron has on 20 October announced £81bn ($127bn) of cuts from total government expenditure of £661bn ($1,040bn), the largest budget cuts in decades by a large margin. All this it needs to do to try and stop national debt rising at £5,900 ($9,300) a second. 

Iraq, on the other hand, is going the other way. Not only does it expect to be in budget surplus by 2012, but it is pulling money in for investment at an ever-increasing rate. 

Iraq had a five-year plan to attract $6bn-worth of investments. It then said it wants $200bn. And this week it has gone up to a new target of $600bn. 

It would be happy if it gets to 50% of that target, but it has reasons to be optimistic. 

In the first 20 days of this month alone we reported on private investments in Basra for 1,000 housing units, a shopping mall and a huge drinking water project. In and around Amara there will be another 1,150 housing units and an industrial park, and Erbil is building two big roads, Muthanna a large cement factory to help with yet other developments, and Baghdad is awarding another 11 investment permits for housing, commerce, tourism and industry. And I haven’t even mentioned the energy projects yet.

In the global economic seesaw, it seems like it is Iraq’s turn to rise up again.

…and it looks like it is going to get it.

Iraq has lofty investment targets for the next five years. Sami al-Araji, chairman of Iraq’s National Investment Commission, told Reuters:

“We’d like to go ahead and shoot for $600 billion. We hope of course we can realize it, but we will be very happy if we realize a good percentage of it. That’s if we pass the 50% in a solid way.”

This does not seem too far-fetched. New deals are reported in a steady stream by Iraq Business News, from budgets of $75m to complete hundreds of small deals to  a $50bn deal to build one million housing units for millions of people.

It doesn’t stop there. ”If we go for the two million housing units, by itself, that will give us a good chunk of that mark,” Araji continued in his interview. “As of today, 132 companies have applied. We are concentrating on 35.”

Just this week, Baghdad Province completed deals with Russian and Ukrainian companies worth $20bn for projects in various sectors: bridges, education, energy, health, roads, sewers, tourism, water and youth.

A statement from the Office of the Mayor of Baghdad, Salah Abdul-Razzaq, said that the projects include “building nine hospitals accommodating 200 beds and 400 schools with laboratories, cafeterias and gymnasiums. There are other projects in the fields of housing and tourism through building a hotel at Baghdad International Airport and 50,000 housing units.”

“Other projects include transport field through building an expressway adjacent to Tigris river 250 km long…which contributes to transport 10,000 passengers an hour, in addition to building five bridges in different areas of the capital and other projects in the field of youth including building 14 swimming pools, 20 entertainment and sports clubs, 12 women’s clubs, football and basketball fields and 28 houses for culture and arts; and a power station with capacity of 1,300 mw will be built as well.”

(Sources: Reuters, Nina, Office of the Mayor of Baghdad)

Kurdistan’s sixth international trade fair in Erbil opened on Monday with 850 companies from 25 countries. Hundreds of companies are at the fair for the first time.

Albert Awun of EFB Arak, which organised the fair, told AKnews: “The percentage of the participating new companies in the exhibition compared to last year is about 50%, while the estimated amounts of the major projects that the Iraqi government is working on to invest in the infrastructure, housing, agriculture, transportation, health, education and communication projects is estimated to about 70 billion U.S. dollars.

“The fair includes national pavilions from Austria, Britain, Germany, France, Czech Republic, Kuwait, Iran, Jordan, Turkey, in addition to the participation of many other countries such as the United States, Belgium, Poland, Egypt, United Arab Emirates and Lebanon.”

With Germany being represented by 30 companies, a spokesperson for the country’s Economy Ministry gave his support to German businesses entering Iraq. He said:  ”Some companies recognize for the first time the market and investment opportunities in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region. German companies are participating in various fields: consulting, engineering, construction, logistics, hotels and restaurants, as well as pharmaceutical companies, banks, and the production equipment and special equipment.”

A senior politician for the Czech Republic also said that he is optimistic for the economic development made in Kurdistan, as evidenced by the huge turnout at the fair, reports AKnews.

 Dr Barham Ahmad Saleh, President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, said that the presence of so many countries is evidence of the confidence of these states in the Kurdistan region and its future, which is evidence that it has become a safe site and a gateway to Iraq.

He added that the Kurdistan Regional Government has adopted a “prudent policy towards prosperity, economic growth and general openness of the private sector and the private sector must play a role in this advancement.” Investment in the region has reached $13bn.

The fair is expecting 60,000 visitors in the first five days.

(Sources: AKnews, Kurdistan Regional Government)