Conditions continue to fluctuate in Iraq. Levels of violence rose slightly last week, but in the absence of any major mass casualty attacks the overall number of fatalities fell from the previous week. At least 47 people were killed and 71 injured in nationwide incidents. Countrywide, a total of 25 bomb attacks left 16 people dead and 40 injured. An additional suicide bombing in Babil province left three people dead and 18 injured. A notable rise in the number of small arms attacks left 28 people dead and 13 injured. Two Iraqi nationals were abducted in Ta’mim province while the body of a British national, abducted in 2007, was finally handed over to the authorities. The central provinces experienced the lion’s share of violence. Iraqi Kurdistan saw no major incidents of violence at all,

North
The cities of Kirkuk and Mosul remain very hazardous, with almost daily attacks in both. The police and military remain the most common target of militant attacks in the non-Kurdish governed north of the country although civilians are also regularly being singled out because of their community backgrounds. Members of the Shabak community were hit by a bombing against an IDP camp in Bartala, near Mosul last week, for example.

Weekly Attacks in Iraq - the last 6 months

Centre
Militant and terrorist activity was concentrated in the centre of the country – particularly Diyala province around Ba’qubah. Baghdad also saw several attacks although the capital is currently quieter than normal. Indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) in the city left no casualties and only limited damage last week. Nonetheless, one of the attacks targeted the Turkish embassy, signalling a warning for nationals of the country that they are as much at risk of being singled out for attacks as other foreigners. For some time, Turkish nationals have been able to ‘slip under the radar’ in Iraq, blending in and travelling low profile. Nonetheless, Turkish nationals were amongst those abducted in the country last year and with worsening relations between Baghdad and Ankara Turkish organisations should perhaps consider reviewing their security measures in place at present. Low-profile measures will probably suit the majority of Turkish firms and nationals for now. Blending in should still be regarded as the best means of mitigating risk. Nonetheless, at least some protection should be regarded as better than nothing.

South
No major incidents were reported in the south of the country last week although unknown blasts were reported in Basrah on 25 January. Under-reporting remains a concern in the region and while it is certainly far quieter than the centre and north of Iraq it should not be regarded as ‘safe’.

John Drake is a senior risk consultant with AKE, a British private security firm working in Iraq since 2003. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here, and you can obtain a free trial of AKE’s Iraq intelligence reports here.

AKnews reports that the Kurdistan-Turkey economic forum kicked off on Wednesday in the Saad Abdulla Convention Hall in Erbil.

Abdul-Khaleq Mohammed, press secretary for Kurdistan’s Foreign Relations Office, told AKnews that the Turkish Trade Minister Zafer Çağlayan arrived in Erbil last night, at the head of a 175-strong delegation of 25 government officials and 150 Turkish businessmen.

A considerable number of Kurdistan officials are also expected to attend the forum, which will be held in Erbil in the morning and in Sulaimaniyah in the evening.

(Source: AKnews)

Reuters reports that Iraq has signed a $235-million electricity deal with a subsidiary of Turkey’s Enka Insaat to install a 500-megawatt power plant in the Al-Najibiya district of Basra.

The company will install four General Electric (GE) gas units, each with a capacity of 125 megawatts, within the next 16 months, said electricity minister Karim Aftan.

The green-field project will by financed by the local government of Basra.

(Source: Reuters)

The Jordanian news agency Petra, citing Jordan’s Transport Ministry, reports that Iraq has agreed to allow Jordanian trucks to transit its territory to Turkey and Europe.

Iraqi authorities said they will open a route for Jordanian trucks to Turkey within a month after putting in place customs and security procedures.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Basra Investment Commission (BIC) has agreed in principle to build an iron and steel factory worth of $150 million (175 billion IQD).

AKnews reports that it is a joint proposal by Erbil Steel Company and a Turkish company.

Khalaf Badran, head of the BIC, told AKnews that the Commission has expressed its “full support” for the project and will do its best to overcome all the obstacles as it “aspires for the development of industry in Basra.”

Sirwan Kakil, chief executive of Erbil Steel told AKnews the project in Basra will be called Basra Steel.

The factory will initially produce 250 tons annually, and will create up to 800 jobs besides positions for foreign technicians and experts.

“Through this project we will offer Basra our wide expertise, we will avoid the issues we encountered in our previous projects in Turkey and the Kurdistan Region and endeavor for Basra to be exemplary,” Kakil said.

(Source: AKnews)

Turkey said it could use Iraq as an alternative trade route, cutting out Syria entirely as Damascus faces broad economic sanctions over its deadly crackdown on its 8-month-old uprising.

Syria has been a main transit route for Middle East trade, which Damascus hopes will help cushion the effects of tough new sanctions from the Arab League and Turkey, according to Associated Press reports.

The Arab sanctions were expected to bite far more than existing sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union, which had far more limited trade with Damascus.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem said the Arab sanctions amounted to “economic warfare” and warned Damascus could use its strategic location to inflict economic damage of its own.

Turkey’s transport minister said there are alternatives to Syria, although he gave no specifics about when such a move might be taken.

“We are planning to conduct transit transport through Iraq, by opening new (border) gates, if the situation with Syria worsens,” Binali Yildirim told the state-run Anadolu Agency on Tuesday. He said Turkey would increase the number of border crossings with Iraq in such an event.

 (Source: Associated Press, Reuters)

(Picture: Iraq-Turkey Border)

Iraq may participate in the planned new gas pipeline between Azerbaijan and Turkey, according to TrendAz.

An adviser to the Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Ministry told the Kurdistan Oil & Gas Conference, “Iraq’s participation in this project as a gas producing country is important for us”.

He said the world has a growing demand for energy and Turkey’s strategic position plays an important role in the economic and energy security of the region.

Baku and Ankara intend to build a new pipeline in Turkey to export 50 billion cubic metres of gas that Azerbaijan intends to produce by 2025.

Project partners are currently working on all the issues surrounding the future gas pipeline, on which construction will start in 2012, with a completion date by 2017, when the second stage of development of the Azerbaijani gas condensate field Shah Deniz will be launched.

(Source: Trend.az)

The Financial Times reports that Genel Energy plans to build a pipeline that will connect its fields in the Kurdish regions in northern Iraq to a port in Turkey on the Mediterranean.

Reuters reports that the pipeline will run from DNO’s Tak Tak field to Faysh Khabour, which is the upstation in the northern part of Kurdistan immediately on the Iraqi side of the border with Turkey, connecting in to the major export line to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey.

Tony Hayward (pictured), the former head of BP, who is leading the new company formed from the merger of Vallares with Turkey’s Genel Enerji, said the pipeline will have a capacity of 400,000 barrels of oil a day.

“We’ve completed the engineering on it and are currently in the market to identify an EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) contractor,” Hayward said.

The Daily Mail expects the new company to begin trading on 21st November.

(Sources: Daily Mail, Financial Times, Reuters)