ISX is region’s second best performer

With a year-to-date return of 14.6% as of February 7, the Rabee Securities RSISX index is the region’s second best performer so far this year. Only Iran’s TEPIX index, up 16.4%, did better.

Regional stock markets have generally mirrored the lackluster performance of the Morgan Stanley global emerging markets index, which is down 1.8% year-to-date. The main headwinds, both in the region and around the world, are coming from the threat of rising inflation and higher interest rates. For all the talk of political uncertainty following the protests in Egypt, these have had little impact so far. Markets like Saudi Arabia and Jordan initially took big hits on the Egypt news, but most of those losses have since been made up.

While Iran and Iraq have had similar returns so far, the two countries face dissimilar macroeconomic situations. The Iranian economy is hampered by international sanctions and declining oil production, while year-on-year food price inflation reached 18.9% in December (the last reported month). This compares to the situation in Iraq, where foreign investment is growing rapidly, oil output is expected to double or triple over the next decade and December CPI was only 3.3%.

The two stock markets are quite different as well. The Tehran Stock Exchange has been operating since 1967, has a market capitalization of about US$ 90 bn and 420 listed companies. The history of the Iraq stock exchange only goes back to the mid-1990s. So far there are fewer than 100 listed companies with a combined market cap of around US$ 2 bn.

And the Iranian market has already been rising for quite a while. It was up 68% in 2010. The ISX ended last year basically flat. Its bull market has only just begun.

It shouldn’t be hard for Iraq to take over the top spot.

34 Responses to ISX is region’s second best performer

  1. EMMETT February 7, 2011 at 11:45 pm #

    This will get even more attention once Al Warka joins…

  2. peter February 8, 2011 at 12:43 am #

    Thanks Mark ! Yes..I just got word directly from Warka..” we expect to be trading again in six to eight weeks “.Very good news ..
    I use Rabee securities and they have put me into some stocks that are up over 50% since Nov. 2010.One stock I own just awarded a 50% bonus of shares on top of the 40 % gain…wow..now thats what I call a dividend..They are getting me positioned for some upcoming stocks that will be trading again at very low valuations…The CEO told me that the entire investment world is now eying the ISX..get in now I say..enjoy the ride..
    Mark,My projection is for 100 % this year…maybe even 200%..whats your take bro ?
    In 5 years the entire world will be talking about Iraq..and we can say “We were there first “..wow..very cool..

    Mark,what’s going to happen when the institutional money moves in? yikes..

  3. DeWeaver February 8, 2011 at 7:21 am #

    Hi Peter:

    It would be good news if Warka was trading again. But I will believe it when I see it!

    As for the rest of the market, just based on what has happened in other similar-seeming markets, 200% – 400% would seem to be within the realm of possibility.

  4. peter February 8, 2011 at 7:23 pm #

    I just got word that Rabee Securities will be introducing an index that will be tradable in the near future.

  5. Rumski February 9, 2011 at 11:30 pm #

    Hi Mark,

    I wanted to know how you feel about the IQD?

    A lot of people have invested in the IQD. I wanted to know your thoughts about it?

    Have you heard anything about it RV/RI?

    Rumski

  6. MARK February 11, 2011 at 7:13 am #

    waiting for th dinar to go to pre war value 3.20 to the dollar
    any news ??

  7. Stew February 11, 2011 at 9:32 am #

    LOL… I remember years ago when the dinar pumpers stated it was absolutely a must that the dinar RV before the ISX opened.
    Just one of the thousands of things they have been wrong, or lied about.
    Either ignorance or deceit… neither is good for investment advice.

  8. DeWeaver February 11, 2011 at 10:34 am #

    Hi Mark: No, I have seen nothing to suggest that this is likely

  9. DeWeaver February 11, 2011 at 10:36 am #

    Hi Rumski:

    I think the ISX is a better bet. My view on the dinar hasn’t changed since I wrote this post in December:

    http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2010/12/07/history%e2%80%99s-lesson-for-the-dinar/

  10. ken February 12, 2011 at 10:38 am #

    is the dinar rv all rumors? thanks ken louisiana

  11. Stew February 14, 2011 at 10:26 am #

    Ken… Yes… the dinar RV as pushed by the dealers and the so called internet dinar gurus is all a scam. There is ZERO chance of the current dinar being revalued back to 1:1 or even higher as they claim. It could go up 10 or 20%… maybe even go crazy and go up 100% over the next 5 to 10 years. But I doubt it. Most likely, they will eventually issue a new currency and Iraqis will give 1000 current dinars for 1 new dinar (delete 3 zeros) and that new dinar will be valued in the 85 cents to $1 range.
    Holding cash dinar outside of Iraq is a very risky investment.

  12. junior February 14, 2011 at 8:36 pm #

    so all the hype about the dinars being revalue is nothing but a scam???????????? is this really true…..

  13. Stew February 14, 2011 at 9:18 pm #

    Sadly yes Junior. It’s this simple. Iraq use to have a good exchange rate. They now have a money supply about 1000 times more than they did back then. That explains perfectly why their exchange rate is now 1000 times worse. They have stated they want to go back to a good rate, and they plan to delete 3 zeros to do that. That means they will issue a new currency and give 1 new dinar for every 1000 turned in. The new currency will be worth about 85 cents. That’s what is technically known as a redenomination. Slang term is lop. It’s been used by countries in Iraq’s situation about 70 times in the last 30 or so years.
    If they don’t lop, their currency will stay at about the same value and could go up or down just like any other currency.
    If they want the value to go back to the 1:1 range they have to reduce the money supply by a factor of 1000, and the only way to do that is with a redenomination/lop as they have been planning.
    Big RV is absolutely a scam.

  14. junior February 15, 2011 at 7:02 am #

    so now that i know the truth about the dinars what should i do with them now. what a bad investment ha??????????? i probably won’t get back what i have the value in them. any ideas what to do now??? thx for letting me know Stew.

  15. pancake February 15, 2011 at 9:12 am #

    junior, send yur dinar to me… for my collection.

  16. Doug February 16, 2011 at 7:52 am #

    Stew, you’re so full of shit! Look at what all middle eastern currency has done over the past 20 years. The dinar will go up and it will go down. Everything points to pre-war values. How long it will stay up there is anyone’s guess. Our government would not have invested into so much dinar if they did not have an inside track on what the near future holds. Yes, there is risk. but to say this is all a scam?? Pull your head out of your ass guy.

  17. Stew February 16, 2011 at 8:52 am #

    Doug…
    Scammers wake up every day and give thanks for people like you.

    They have 27 Trillion dnar in circulation and a M2 number of 60 Trillion. How that points to a pre-war value is beyond reason.
    There is not one single bit of proof that our Government has invested in one dinar. In fact there is an article where thay have denied buying any. Those claims where made up by scammers and here you are on a news site screaming it. You are a scammers dream come true.

  18. matt February 16, 2011 at 2:43 pm #

    The risk to reward on the Dinar makes it a risk worth taking.
    Show me a better investment.
    Realestate the stock market ?
    Stay positive its no more a scam than anything else right now.

  19. peter February 16, 2011 at 4:09 pm #

    HOLY SMOKES !! Did you see todays action ? up 6.6 % in one day !
    We are now at the psychological resistance point on the 3 year chart.
    When we break this I believe that we will have confirmed long term bull on our hands I believe this is at the 1400 level…ye haaa..Let the trend be your friend..go baby go..hahah..

  20. peter February 16, 2011 at 4:29 pm #

    Now…upon closer inspection it was mainly driven toady by one bank stock that began trading today BIMI.A 24 % move. Which I already owned 😉

  21. Carl February 21, 2011 at 12:08 pm #

    where and how can I find the bank bimi.a

  22. joe February 21, 2011 at 1:10 pm #

    IQD,RV on march-april??????

  23. junior February 23, 2011 at 8:09 am #

    Joe are you thinking that the rv could happen in march or april ????? that would be great but not holding my breath just yet…..

  24. joe February 23, 2011 at 5:33 pm #

    Junior, i got the dinar RV news from my freind.He work at Iraq.Just wait and see…

  25. peter February 23, 2011 at 9:03 pm #

    Jo and Junior, I think an RV will coincide with gold breaking 1,600 $ an oz.in the fall.Just my guess 🙂
    Heck,if it RV’s at a 1/2 a penny I’m rich…Opps (richer)

  26. sayme February 26, 2011 at 6:35 am #

    hope

  27. Rumski March 1, 2011 at 9:13 am #

    Morning Mark,

    Since I’m hearing that the Iraqi dinars are ‘no good’, scam. Can you tell me about the ISX?

    This is all new to me, and I’d like to learn more about it. How, or what do I need to do to BE apart of the ISX.

    Thanks for your response.

    Sincerely,

    Rumski

  28. junior March 1, 2011 at 6:33 pm #

    can some one please tell me what ISX mean???? cause i guess the dinars might not be going to work out, or those any one hear anything on this matter. some one must have some good news some where…….

  29. peter March 1, 2011 at 7:05 pm #

    Junior,
    ISX stands for Iraq Stock Exchange.Just google it and do your homework.
    Enjoy,keep the faith…

  30. EMMETT March 1, 2011 at 11:02 pm #

    ISX continues to be a becon on light on the middle east in Iraq… Surges to 129.32…Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee… To learn more on the ISX visit facebook link http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Iraqi-Stock-Market-Makes-Money/127516850647648

    Or FACEBOOK GROUP IRAQ STOCK MARKET MAKES MONEY…

    People the (ISX) IRAQI STOCK MARKET BANKS ARE PROVING TO BE A WINNER.. .Remeber some middle east indext trade at well over 1,000 points we have a ways to go… buckle up..

  31. EMMETT March 1, 2011 at 11:05 pm #

    This market is exploding on the down low…

  32. DeWeaver March 2, 2011 at 7:35 am #

    Rumski: I think Rabee Securities has an index fund that might be a good option for the individual investor. You could contact Nausheruan Baban at [email protected] to see if they are accepting new money.

  33. junior March 2, 2011 at 9:16 am #

    what kind of money do yo need to invest in the ISX stock of iraq. is this a better options than the dinars? im just a new beginner at this, but always willing to try new investment to keep my option open???? I would like anyone to give me some feed back on this plz

  34. sam March 7, 2011 at 2:50 am #

    IQD is not a scam. Iraq will RV its Dinar they have to in order to compete with neighboring countries. It only makes since that it will be worth the prewar value of $3.00+ When that’s the question, someone said March April that sounds good to me, I have had mine for 5years so I am ready to exchange mine for worthless USD LOL.