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Posted on 29 March 2011.
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By Tom Cleveland, market analyst for Forex Traders, exclusively for Iraq Business News. Forex Traders is an online resource for the foreign exchange market.
“Buy on the rumor, sell on the news” is a time-honored investment phrase that is oftentimes more confusing than the wisdom it attempts to impart. The meaning relates primarily to company securities that appreciate in expectation of a big news announcement. Early speculation drives ups the price, such that when the real announcement is made, most investors sell on the news to take their profits, often driving the price down, rather than up. “Pump and Dump” stock frauds also follow a similar scenario, but in this case, criminals benefit and investors lose.
A similar situation has been building for years, some say as many as eight years, surrounding the potential “revaluation” of the Iraqi Dinar. As the rumor would have it, the Iraqi economy has stabilized, and the potential for enormous foreign currency reserves from increased oil exports will drive the value of the Dinar to unconscious levels versus the U.S Dollar. The government authorities will be forced to revalue the currency from 1,175 to 3 per Dollar, resulting in an outrageous windfall for anyone owning stockpiles of the currency. Does something here sound a little too good to be true?
In actuality, the Iraqi Dinar, or “IQD”, is a “controlled” currency. The central bank of Iraq determines the exchange rate and must support that rate by maintaining adequate foreign currency reserves to handle capital flows across its borders. The IMF permits countries with a transitional economy to implement currency controls in order to stabilize their economy during its redevelopment phase. Presently, international banks will not accept the Dinar, and it is not traded on any forex exchange. Actual purchases can be made through currency dealers that have been authorized to buy and sell banknotes that are already in circulation.
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Dr. Mark A. DeWeaver
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