We now predict that Iraq’s mobile subscriber base will expand by 10.6% in 2011, and by an annual average growth rate of 7.7% through to the end of 2015. A number of factors will contribute to robust growth rates going forward. One will be the issuance of a fourth mobile operating licence sometime during early 2011. In October 2010, it was reported that Iraq’s Ministry of Communications (MoC) planned to award the country’s fourth national mobile licence in the first quarter of 2011. Various companies have so far expressed an interest in the concession, including US-based Verizon Communications, South Africa's MTN, Turkcell of Turkey, the UAE's Etisalat, France Telecom and UK-based Vodafone.
It is hoped that the issuance of a new licence will be followed by a launch of commercial mobile services later in 2011. Meanwhile, Iraq’s existing cellcos continue to expand their networks into new parts of the country. For example, Zain Iraq plans to invest 16%-20% of its revenue every year in upgrading and expanding its network for at least the next three years. The market leader has also revealed plans to commence operations in Iraqi Kurdistan in January 2011.
Iraq has moved from ninth to eighth position in BMI’s latest set of Business Environment ratings for the MENA region. The country’s overall ranking in our table has benefited from a slightly stronger score in the Industry Rewards category. The slightly stronger score in the Industry Rewards category reflects the announcements of new network deployment plans by the operators, as well as the news that Iraq’s authorities plan to push ahead with the issuance of a new mobile operating licence in 2011.
The report runs to 77 pages and can be bought from Business Monitor International.
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