Some politicians close to Maliki are openly discussing that they may well insist that US “instructors” be subject to Iraqi law i.e. no SOFA. Washington will then have to consider the risk of having its military personnel exposed to the (slowly) maturing Iraqi legal system against protecting the Embassy, in a country that is likely to remain a war zone, for some time to come. Or they may well just hire a private security firm and be done with it all ……..
Only the two Kurdish parties are pushing for a security partnership with the US. Their stance goes much further than the “instruction” mandate envisaged elsewhere, referring to the “disputed territories” as a rationale for asking the Americans to stay. This means Kirkuk and is unlikely to help move the discussions forward internally.
At the same time, at least some of the actors in the secular Iraqiyya and Shi‘i Islamist camps have an unexpected interest in keeping the Americans around for a little while longer. Senior Iraqiyya figures still feel deeply betrayed by the US support for Maliki in the March election (they reckoned Washington would back their own man – Allawi) but despite this betrayal they would like the US to remain in the country mainly to counter-balance to Iranian influence.
The Sadrists, who have been predictably outspoken and very vocal opponents of the US presence, have also been very vocal against the accord taking shape even to the extent of reforming the Mahdi Army (the JAM).
For his part, Maliki needs to start get real about the viability of the “political majority” that he has been talking about as an alternative to a national unity government. Maliki has in mind a coalition of State of Law, the Kurds and Sunni Arab politicians however – the numbers just do not add up. So that ain’t going to work in the foreseeable future.
To create a truly integrated government focused on Iraqi interests: Maliki needs to dump a few of the overtly pro-Iranian figures from his coalition. Allawi needs to abandon the idea of a strategic policy council (this was dumped in late 2010 in all but Allawi’s mind) and the Sadrists need to be properly integrated in some way – reforming the Mahdi army will not be good; and lastly some sort of long-term military deal with the United States needs to be sorted out.
But then …… which country does has a Government that puts national interest ahead of political survival.
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