Implications of the IEA Iraq Energy Outlook

According to a keynote speech delivered early October by Mr. Thamir Ghadhban, the Head of PMAC, he endorses a medium production plateau of just over 9.0 mbd to be reached by 2020 and considers it the favored one. This level of production, according to Mr. Ghadhban, is sufficient to satisfy expected domestic demand of I.5 mbd and 7.5 mbd for export (including spare capacity). He reportedly asserts, “Nobody is talking about six or 12 mpd".

Also Dr. Shahristani at the launching ceremony of the IEA Report in Baghdad, 10th October, has reportedly said, 9-10 mbd in 2020 sustainable for 20 years is both feasible and desirable.

Finally, the discussion within the Ministry of Planning on the new National Development Plan-NDP (2013/17) indicates that the Ministry of Oil (in September 2012) suggests7 mbd in 2017 as benchmark for the NDP.

The above indicates that IEA and INES (and to some extent the new NDP and the emerging views among high ranking Iraqi officials) agree on the 9 mbd but they differ in its likelihood and time horizon: a “high case” according to the IEA and a “medium” case according to INES/NDP. Most likely the forthcoming but still under formulation National Energy Strategy-NES would endorse the 9.0 mbd to be reached by 2020, and probably this would affect the subsequent national development plans as well as annual state budgets.

  1. The common denominator among all the efforts cited above is that they are much below the aggregate of ca.13.5 mbd envisaged for 2017 and resulting from the contracted long term service contracts and production from other oilfields (including the KRG).
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