Implications of the IEA Iraq Energy Outlook

By Ahmed Mousa Jiyad.

Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The following is an extended version of my brief intervention delivered before IEA’ Energy Business Council virtual meeting held in Paris, 19th Oct 2012 on the Agency’s World Energy Outlook Special Report “Iraq Energy Outlook”. The meeting was held under the Chatham House Rule.

My brief intervention focuses on the adopted three scenarios by the IEA Report and their implications for Iraq.

  1. IEA Report presents three scenarios for oil production in 2020 and 2035. A ‘High’ case gives 9 million barrels per day-mbd and 10.4 mbd respectively; the ‘Central’ scenario gives 6.1 mbd and 8.3 mbd respectively, and ‘Delayed’ case of 4 mbd and 5.3 mbd respectively.

The IEA Central Scenario sounds in its first part (6.1 mbd in 2020) similar to the previously adopted but aborted targets. Namely, the 5.5 mbd of early eighties that was aborted by Iran-Iraq war; the 6.0 mbd of early nineties that was aborted by the invasion of Kuwait, the subsequent wars, sanctions and invasion, and the 6.0 mbd adopted by the Ministry of Oil Plan 2009/19 that was soon “forgotten” by the inflated plateau targets resulting from bid rounds one and two. In a way IEA vindicates the feasibility and soundness of these targets drawn between 3 to 30 years ago, though the conditions in 2012 and beyond are very different from those prevailed prior to 2003 regime change.

  1. The Booze & Co study: Iraq Integrated National Energy Strategy-INES (supported by the World Bank)considers also three scenarios but with higher production levels than the IEA’s in all scenarios. ‘High’ scenario of ca.13.5 mbd by 2017 based on the concluded contracts; ‘medium’ production of 9 mbd in 2020/1; and ‘Low’ scenario of 6 mbd by 2025.
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