In practical terms the war in Iraq was ended three years ago when most Sunni Arab tribes broke with both al Qaeda and the Sunni Arab nationalist groups (who in turn were allied with al Qaeda) and then turned on the Sunni Arab terrorists. The number of terror attacks fell by 90% and the Iraqi Government forces defeated what was left pretty much by themselves, which in turn convinced American commanders that Iraqi troops and police could deal with internal threats with minimal external support. However Sunni and Shia splinter groups will be part of the Iraqi political landscape for a decade or more, and Iraqis (and foreign investors) are going to have to deal with it and hope that the Iraqi Government security forces do not get too diverted by other stuff happening on its borders.
So how is this change going to change Iraq – in the south …… not a lot but in the North / Kurdistan I think the changes will be significant. Which brings me to late October in Northern Iraq ………..
The last 2 days: Turkey reported that the 10,000 troops that they still maintain on the border have popped over and killed at least 49 PKK rebels in retaliation for:
Last week – 10,000 Turkish troops entered northern Iraq, in an effort to do some major damage to the PKK. The ground troops were accompanied by fighter-bomber and helicopter attacks. This is pretty serious stuff when one countries military storms across the border with 10,000 troops. Apparently the offensive was triggered by a series of PKK attacks (launched from Iraq bases) on Turkish border which left 24 Turkish troops dead.
There are apparently over 20 battalions of Turkish infantry and tanks moving towards known PKK base areas, to settle things up close and personal in the near future.
I hope that Prime Minister Maliki being seen as kicking the US forces out and the possible up-tick in violence is not the straw that breaks Maliki’s tenuous hold on power and sees a Sadarist becoming PM!
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