To avoid Maliki’s bloc getting hold of the nomination of the next PM, Iraqiyya would need to first form a bloc with the Kurds or the Shiite Islamists, agree on a bloc leader and so on. Incidentally, this would imply a negation of their own interpretation of article 76 of the Iraqi constitution on the prime ministerial nomination procedure (which Iraqiyya in 2010 saw as belonging to the biggest electoral list).
Also, there seems to be a prevailing theory that the current Shiite alliance can simply swap Maliki and someone more likable as premier with the rest of the cabinet remaining in place. Again, this is erroneous. Constitutionally, the whole cabinet is considered resigned if a vote of no confidence in the prime minister succeeds.
Accordingly, every single member of the cabinet will have to leave their posts and it is for the Iraqi president to identify the next prime minister on the basis of the “biggest bloc”. This is what makes it so hard to understand another bargaining chip used by the opponents of Maliki these days – that of the possible resignation of the current president, Jalal Talabani of the Kurdish alliance.
Such a scenario would leave the current deputy president that remains within Iraq, Khudayr al-Khuzaie, in charge for the next 30 days until parliament has elected a new president. Khuaie is a Maliki ally. Also, attention would inevitably be deflected from the prime ministerial question.
The most recent developments have seen Ahmed Chalabi assume a leading role among Shiite critics of Maliki, with frequent meetings of the original half of the Shia alliance known as the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) that was formed in August 2009 with Iranian backing. Some even consider Chalabi a forerunner for replacing Maliki! We should soon find out who they have in mind, because it will be very hard for the Maliki critics to backtrack for their latest string of ultimatums without stultifying themselves in a serious way.
interesting analysis as always by reidar. but as usual he omits (or is not aware of) what's happening on the ground in Iraq. From Maliki's perspective he's already created a huge mass of ground support for himself by employing hundreds of thousands under his patronage (both shias and sunnis) and he's made alliances with mish'an juburi, harith al dhari and other well known sunni figures and setting himself up as an "iraqi strongman" (which he's selling to sunni-arabs). Maliki is attempting to move away from his "shia religious" background, and, in baghdad at least, he is now more popular than ever at "grass roots" level. A new election now would result in him cementing his grip on power by massively increasing his powerbase... it is also expected that Nujaifi would ally with "whoever is strongest" in a reshuffling of alliances and sadr's bluff would be called and he would fall in line. This would be a great loss for Allawi who's already lost a lot of the grass roots support that he earlier had, and he lost it to the "arab nationalists" who returned from exile (who are allied with Maliki).