Northern Iraq (North and North Central Regions – including the KRG)
There were 42 attacks in northern Iraq during this reporting period, versus 62 last week. Reported incidents this week included 29 IEDs, sixteen SAF attacks, five under-vehicle bombs, three VBIED attacks, one grenade attack and one suicide vest. Violent incidents dropped slightly in Salah Ad Din and Diyala, a reflection of the ebb and flow of the many overlapping local insurgencies rather than an indicator of stabilization.
In Salah Ad Din there were eight incidents and in Diyala there were sixteen incidents including a failed VBIED and a large number of rural roadside IED attacks on security force vehicles and local civilians. In Kirkuk violence increased slightly, with thirteen detected attacks.
In Iraq’s most violent province, Ninawa, the focal point of violence remained Mosul city. Though a slight majority (thirteen) of incidents occurred within the urban limits of Mosul, a significant proportion of attacks were once again witnessed in the desert (Jazira) region west of Mosul. The expansion of violence outside of Mosul is possibly a product of either ISF gains (forcing out extremists), or more likely, an effort to create support zones outside of the city which are less vulnerable to ISF disruption.
Of growing concern is the situation on the Rabia border crossing with Syria. It is becoming increasingly apparent that this traditional smuggling route into the Ninawa desert is once again becoming a contested area, with six of the seven incidents in 2012 occurring within the last four weeks. It is likely to be a situation exacerbated by the continued unrest in Syria. Attack methodologies varied this week, and included an SVIED and a VBIED in addition to ten shooting incidents, eight IEDs and a single grenade attack.
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