By John Lee.
We get many enquiries at Iraq Business News relating to the future of the Iraqi dinar (IQD), for example:
- Will the Iraqi dinar increase in value?
- Will the currency be re-denominated, dropping the 'three zeros'?
- Is it wise to buy Iraqi dinar?
Firstly, Iraq Business News is not in a position to give investment advice. Our mission is to provide our readers with the highest quality information on the business and economy of Iraq.
As the value of the Iraqi dinar affects trade, we will continue to report on any possible re-valuations and/or redenominations as soon as information is available.
We hope that this information will be useful to the key decision-makers in Iraqi business, and to all who are interested in the development of the country; gamblers and people involved in get-rich-quick schemes/scams are not our target readership.
It's clear from the correspondence we receive that some people, who like to think of themselves as 'investors', genuinely believe that at the stroke of a pen they will make a 1,000-fold return on their purchase of dinars.
Those people might like to consider some questions before putting any further funds at risk: Read more ...
"Frank, it’s pretty obvious 4aprofit is arguing purely for the sake of arguing / attention seeking and just wanting the last word at any cost."
I know, he's obviously a lost cause and will never know any better, but maybe someone thats on the fence will realize that if all dinarians are as clueless and ignorant as he is, maybe it isn't such a hot investment.
"ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS…NEVER GIVE UP"
The is the DUMBEST attitude you can possibly have towards an investment, and it proves you're not an investor, you're just a dreamer. If an investment doesn't look like it's going to pay off you don't hold on to it and "NEVER GIVE UP", you get out of it and put your money somewhere where you're more likely to make a return.
I'd accuse you of being a paid pumper but your posts are so stupid and nonsensical I can't imagine any dinar dealer would pay for them. You bring about as much logic and facts to the table as Okie.
"…YOU DIE HARD DINARIANS OUT THERE…AND NEVER LISTEN TO WHAT ANYONE “SAYS”…BUT WHAT IRAQ “DOES”…NUFF SAID’…"
Yeah, don't listen to the CBI when they say they're going to RD, or when they say they've got 72 trillion dinar in their money supply, be like 4aprofit and think that just because someones opening a bank or a mall in Iraq it means their currency is going to appreciate by 10,000+%. Real sound logic there, chief.
4aprofit are you dealer of IQD or cheerleader?
Have a nice evening.
To each his own, I'm sure The Bear Stearns Investors, and the like, were all told all was well...UNTIL'...that glorious day..when it FLOPPED!..That's the way the cookie crumbles, you win some, you lose some...So, if I lose with the Dinars, so be it, I dont need you telling me what to do...oh that's right, many of the best, most rock-solid, bullet-proof, sound investments..TANKED!...I wonder who gave those folks their GOOD ADVICE?...LOL...
Japeth the dinar depreciated 20 years ago because of sanctions and overprinting. It hasn't been near $3 since. The CBI website says it was valued at 3000 dinar to the dollar back in 1995. http://www.cbi.iq/index.php?pid=History The Saudi Riyal is currently around 27 cents so if the dinar RVs to $1 it will be less than 4 times as much, but that's not going to happen with 70 trillion in their M2.
Sam, I suppose I need to rethink my premise concerning %66 less. I suppose I was having a hard time understanding why the Saudi Riyal would be worth 250 times less (I know you did not say that someone else here said that). Based on your link if the IQD RVed to 1 USD then it would be 4 times as less. That 250 times thing mathematically does not add up? On another note if their M2 is 70 trillion and they reduced it in half to say 35 trillion, would that not cause a RV?
Yeah, I don't get the 250 thing either. Anyway, if they cut their M2 in half they could RV to twice the current value which would come to about $.0018. In order to RV to $.86 they would need an M2 of 70 billion dinar which would be a reduction of 99.9%. Needless to say that's not bloody likely. In fact, I don't anticipate any significant reduction in the money supply at all. The more their foreign currency reserves grow the larger their money supply becomes. It look to me like the last thing on their minds is raising the dinar's value.
I just want to thank Iraqi business news for reporting the facts as they see it. Yes I am one of those who invested in the IQD hoping for an answer to the recession me and my family have experienced. Fortunately I knew when to put the brakes on and did not allow greed to take me beyond recovery. I am sad that an eminant RV isn't going to come soon, although I am 90% confidant that my dinar is real. And although red is not necessarily my favorite color it may one day make interesting wall paper! Please keep reporting with honesty ... That is all I ask ... You have helped to keep 'Okieans' in perspective.
Oh yes .... There isn't anyone out there with a million dollars they would like to donate to my retirement fund is there? LOL.
Saudi Arabia has an M2 of 1.1 Trillion riyal. At .266 per riyal that’s $292 Billion
Iraq has 72 Trillion dinar, if it were to RV at 1:1 they would have $72 Trillion.
72 Trillion is 246 times more than 292 Billion. So Iraq currency would be worth 246 times more than Saudi Arabia’s currency.
I’m sure that’s what Frank is talking about with the 250.
That’s where almost all dinar holders make a major mistake. They think because a currency is only worth .00085 that it has no value. That’s simply currency 101 ignorance. The exchange rate is only ½ of the equation of a currencies value. The supply of that currency is the other half of the equation.
Simple experiment. Take a couple 8 year old kids, a boy and a girl… and some yellow and blue sticky notes. Give the boy a blue sticky and tell him all blue stickys are worth $10. Now give the girl a yellow sticky and tell her all yellow stickys are worth $1. I bet the girl would be pretty upset that her sticky is worth much less. Now tell the boy he can have all the blue stickys you have and give him 10, so he now has $100. Now tell the girl she can have all the yellow stickies and give her 1000 so she has $1000. Now who would be upset?
In other words, 8 year old kids can understand exchange rates and money supplies. Why are there so many adults that can’t figure it out.
I dont care what rate they come out at, as long as it's any rate above what it is now, not worried about Saudi or any of their rates, there's already been gains for some of us, that is all that's been insinuated here, and because of it, there have been multiple attacks!...ALL ANYONE CAN DO IS WAIT AND SEE...THAT WILL BE THE PROOF OF WHAT THEY WILL DO WITH IRAQ'S CURRENCY, AND AS PER WHAT THEY CAN OR CANT DO...MANY ARE TOO WORRIED ABOUT WHAT HAS'NT HAPPENED FOR THEM..OR WHAT THEY DON'T BELIEVE CAN HAPPEN...AND NOT WHAT SOME OF US MIGHT SPECULATE COULD HAPPEN...EVEN THOUGH WE INVESTORS HOPE FOR THE BEST!...IT'S EITHER RIDE OR DUMP..OR DONT EVEN GET IN...SIMPLE!
I've read through the posts in this thread and found some information in one of the links that I have been looking for. The critical numbers to review have not been exchange rates, but the level of circulating currency. ....Many thanks to whoever posted this link:
http://www.rferl.org/content/Iraq_Planning_Currency_Redenomination/1950504.html
Even though it appears there are no hard and fast numbers available on the internet regarding liquidity for the years preceding the IQD decline, Mudhhir Muhammad Salih, a member of a Central Bank advisory panel appears to have access to that information. ....He clearly states that there were 25 billion dinar in circulation in 1990!
....Now couple that to the fact that the CBI certified financial statements indicate that less than 7 trillion dinar were used to convert to the New Iraqi Dinar in 2004, and you have the proof of a hyper inflated currency.
http://www.cbi.iq/index.php?pid=FinancialStatements
The circulating currency was expanded by 280 times over a period of 14 years. ....And since that time the same CBI reports indicate a further expansion to bring it to 1,280 times the original circulating currency, now known as the 'Swiss Dinar'. ....And just for the sake of clarity, the 'Swiss Dinar' was the actual currency unit that held the esteem of the world at levels high enough to support rates in the $3 range.
....So, we are holding a currency that has been diluted 1,280 times less than its former glory. .....Doesn't sound very likely to me that a substantial RV is their first option!
.......What faith I do have is in the rumored 'private purchase agreement' associated with a global realignment of currencies. Although a 'murky', fabled situation; it appears to me there is greater chance in it than an initial high value revaluation in IQD.
FactFinder - "The circulating currency was expanded by 280 times over a period of 14 years. And since that time the same CBI reports indicate a further expansion to bring it to 1,280 times the original circulating currency, now known as the ‘Swiss Dinar’. And just for the sake of clarity, the ‘Swiss Dinar’ was the actual currency unit that held the esteem of the world at levels high enough to support rates in the $3 range. So, we are holding a currency that has been diluted 1,280 times less than its former glory. Doesn’t sound very likely to me that a substantial RV is their first option!"
Indeed, Factfinder. It went from 25bn to 7-10tn under Saddam. And post-Saddam (+2004) has since gone from 7-10tn to 72tn today. A picture is worth 1,000x words...
Iraqi Dinar Money Supply 2004-2012:-
http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/6500/iraqdinarmoneysupply200.jpg
"Not saying I am right, just saying that is how I am looking at this investment."
You're looking at it completely wrong. There are two components to the value of a currency. What each unit is worth, and how many units there are. Pre war (pre kuwait war, not pre iraq war) there were only 25 billion IQD in circulation. Now there are over 70 TRILLION. Saudi has around a trillion rial in circulation, worth around 27 cents each. It ends up being around 300 billion USD worth of value. If Iraq were to RV 1 to 1, they would have over 70 trillion worth of value. It ends up being around 250 times that of Saudi.
It's the most basic rule of investing. The more there is of something, the less it's worth. How much do you think Mickey Mantle rookie cards would be worth of there were a trillion of them in pristine condition out there>
It is said that Iraq has 2, and/or 3 sets of books...who knows what is happening there, or anywhere for that matter...they cant even get a grip on anything worldwide, while Iraq is doing well in many of the areas that others have been affected..all while Iraq has'nt...This is not for micro-managing..it wont work..I dont care how you try to look at this..It's never been totally understood, and probably never will be...this is a "to each his own scenario"...if anyone knew exactly how everything would turn out, they would be the wealthiest people in the world, and probably would'nt even be on here..literally!
It is said by scammers trying to take your money that Iraq has two sets of books.
This has been on the CBI site for years. Under the “statistics” link. There are “Annual Bulletins” There is a link for “1991- June 2003”
http://www.cbi.iq/documents/Annual_2002f.pdf
This information has been out there for a long time.
Page 5 shows the money supply numbers. They had 21 Billion dinar in circulation in 1991.
Page 17 table 10 shows historical exchange rates. It was down to 10 cents in 1991, and is over1500:1 by 1995.
The dinar has ZERO, NONE, NADA, NO chance of a big RV. A lottery ticket, which has odds of 40 million to one to hit, has a infinitely better chance than a big RV because the odds of a big RV are absolute zero.
There may be one other issue: The new IQD has risen in value since its inception, maybe by as much as 100% if you look at a IQD Yahoo chart. Also the CBI did give the IQD value (the 4 pip thing a few months back). I suppose what I am trying to say is that there is evidence that if and when the CBI chooses they have demonstrated in the past they can make the IQD stronger. Sam, also on the M2 thing, since the IQD has gotten stronger since inception was the M2 supply in Iraq reduced at that time to accomodate this IQD strength?
Japeth the increases in the value were done when they were battling inflation. When the inflation rate was low enough they would leave the dinar's value where it is. The money supply fluctuates from month to month but the overall trend has been upward for years. Hope that helps.
The other factor for Iraq’s exchange rate is FX reserves. (Dollars, euros, gold and such that they hold to back the currency)
Iraq had a $3 exchange rate in the early eighties. They had about 20 billion dinar to support at that time and they had about $60 billion in reserves back then. Remember the articles talking about how when they passed 60 recently it was a new record for the country.
So early eighties 20 billion dinar supported by $60 billion equals $3 per dinar. Simple stuff.
Saddam came into power and started stealing/spending the $60 billion in reserves, so that by about 1990 the dinar, even though there was still only about 20 billion out there, the value had dropped all the way to about 10 cents per dinar. It was pretty much all Swiss dinar at that time. Once the reserves were depleted, Saddam turned on the printing presses and started producing the Saddam dinar in huge numbers. With no reserves to back the currency and Saddam printing huge amounts the value sunk to 1500:1 to 3000:1 by 1995 or 96.
Most people don’t even realize the Saddam dinar were never worth much. The value was already down to 10 cents by the time he started printing. It was only the Swiss dinar that had that legit $3 rate and it was back in the early eighties.
Point is, the dinar’s value is a balance of supply and reserves to back it. If the supply grows the rate can stay the same as long as the reserves grow along with the supply. This is what has happened the last 5 or so years.
If Iraq cut the money supply in half, the rate could double, but only if the reserves stayed at the current level. That’s could not happen because Iraq would have to use the reserves to buy back that ½ of the currency.
The only way to reduce the money supply by a large amount and not have to spend the reserves to do it is a lop/redenomination. Which is what’s going to happen, sooner or later.
"It is said that Iraq has 2, and/or 3 sets of books"
Yes, said by the gurus and pumpers, and then repeated ad nauseum by the dreamers on dinar forums. When have the gurus and pumpers ever been right about anything?
There is not only zero evidence for this two sets of books hypothesis, it makes no sense whatsoever.
1. Iraq wants the support of the IMF, WTO, and they want their currency to be respected and accepted. You don't get that by lying about your circulation numbers.
2. In order to RV to even 1 cent they'd have to have removed 90% of the dinar from their M2, which is simply not possible. Half of their M2 is digital, how do they remove that from circulation? Just take it? Zero out bank accounts? Force you to convert it to USD? It makes no sense whatsoever.
3. Even if it WAS possible to do it, it makes no sense to do it, it would destroy them economically.
Lets look at some numbers and actually use the brains God gave us instead of just listening to what Blaino and Breitling tell us.
Say there's 10 trillion dinar in circulation, backed by 10 billion in reserves. That give us an exchange rate/value of 1000 to 1, about what it is now. They want to RV to 1 cent, so they start buying back dinar with their USD. They buy back 9 trillion, at a cost of 9 billion USD equivalent (their reserves aren't all USD, so they'd be using euros and GBP and maybe even some gold to do this). Now they have 1 trillion dinar in circulation, backed by 1 billion USD (equivalent) in reserves. But wait a minute, that's still 1000 to 1. Their currency is still worth the same amount, there's just less of it.
Well, let's pretend they somehow bought all these dinar back without spending any of their reserves, it's not really possible, but let's pretend they don't need reserves. So now they say their dinar is worth 1 cent. Who benefited? Not Iraqis, that's for sure. If they're buying dinar back from Iraqis and using it to revalue the remaining dinar, the Iraqis are getting screwed and the foreign currency speculators will be the ones getting the majority of the benefit.
Does that sound like something Iraq would do?
4. Iraq couldn't remove trillions of IQD from circulation without Iraqis noticing. If there were few dinar on the streets in Iraq the street value should be going up. It isn't. The street value in Iraq is less than the 1166 to 1 official rate.
5. If Iraq is removing trillions of IQD from circulation how come the dinar dealers are still selling billions? How come there are around 500 million IQD for sale on eBay every single day?
6. Even if they removed EVERY SINGLE paper dinar in the world from existence, without spending ANY of their reserves, there's still 35 trillion digital dinar. They'd only be able to RV to 0.0016 or so. Only double its current value. Again, how do they get rid of those digital dinar? Just take them from Iraqis so they can RV the paper dinar held by foreigners? Not gonna happen.
The RV, as presented, makes zero sense whatsoever. It goes against every economic rule there ever was. It will never happen. It's extremely unlikely that any dinar holder that has bought in the last 4 years or so will ever make a single cent. It's a dead end investment.
We will see!
Absolutely spot on Stew & Frank. Nailed it in one. And what's more if a nation starts taking massive amounts of money out of circulation (in real terms), they usually end causing an economic crash / even a depression / when people & businesses quite literally run out of money... The last thing Iraq wants to do is kill off its budding economy by crippling its economic liquidity purely due to the confused and contradictory demands of a few thousands amateur American "investors" so obsessed with a fantasy of becoming a millionaire for nothing, that most just parrot pumper sales slogans without thinking though anything whatsoever.
During the 1930's, the Federal Reserve shrunk the US M2 by 30%... and promptly turned a recession into The Great Depression compelte with a 30% reduction in GDP and a quadrupling in unemployment rates... That's with a 30% reduction. What the "Go RV!" crowd are calling for in Iraq is an absurd 99.999% reduction as a supposed "alternative" to a redenomination (not because it's better for iraq - but just to "keep the dream alive"). The entire country would literally collapse overnight with riots in the streets. With "friends" like that - who needs enemies..
"We will see!"
"We" already know. YOU will eventually see that we were right the entire time, and that investments frequently don't have a completely mysterious and unknowable outcome.
Anyone that bought dinar thinking there was a chance of a 10,000% increase in value has been scammed. Plain and simple. Most of them are just too proud and desperate for riches to ever admit it.
IMO..I'm satisfied with gains so far, and in the future I believe I'll do great!...I'm not worried at all!...
Since someone will soon bring up the US doesn’t have these huge reserves, so how do they do it and why can’t Iraq. Here’s the answer.
The US has a true floating rate. The rate is determined on forex markets by supply and demand and simply by how much people are willing to pay for it. Iraq has a pegged currency. Currency pegs require reserves to back it.
The US dollar gets it’s value from the $14 trillion USA GDP (that’s $14 trillion dollars in economic activity for those of you in Rio Linda, as Rush would say). That GDP provides a tremendous demand for the currency.
So the US has a $14 Trillion GDP and a m2 of about 10 trillion dollars.
For those that think Iraq could simply make the dinar floating and say it’s 1:1. Iraq has a M2 of 72 trillion and a GDP of $100 billion. Most every country that floats has a money supply somewhere in the range of ½ to twice their GDP. A $1 rate on the dinar would give them $72 trillion in currency with a $100 billion GDP or a money supply 720 times their GDP. All other countries ½ to 2 times GDP, Iraq 720 times GDP. Not going to happen ever!!
Currently Iraq has $62 billion in currency, with $100 billion in GDP. So they are at about 62% of GDP which puts them PERFECTLY within the range of floating currencies at 50-200%.
Most of Iraqs GDP is from oil sales which are in dollars. So it provide very little demand for dinar. So it would be very normal for Iraq to be on the low side of the 50-200% range.
More proof that the dinar is fairly priced exactly where it is… just as the IMF has stated.
I would like to express a special thanks to all the posters who have shared links and sources in this thread.
...It is refreshing to see just how much information can be assembled when people step forward and submit valid facts and figures rather than vague and questionable opinions!
I learned as much from this thread as I have on all the chat rooms I have visited!
On another note, to all the naysayers'..Iraq will Rise from the Ashes'...The New Babylon'...will be the "Financial Hub of the Entire World"...SOON!
Factfinder.
The reason for that is because if you try to present these facts on a dinar board you will be banned. Dinar boards are not about a true open discussion of the dinar. They are only about promoting this fantasy RV to get new people to buy the dinar and current dinar holders to buy more dinar and to buy the sites dinar text messages, financial planning services, the special members only intel, or VIP services (who knows what that is), and other total crap. One even sells T-shirts and coffee mugs.
Wow!!!...My banks and some of the dinar dealers...sold many of us dinars...including many high positioned govt. & military officials that I know...and I've known these same banks to give away coffee mugs and t-shirts too...LOL!!!
Sure... I bet you know a lot of "high positioned govt. & military officials"
"Sure… I bet you know a lot of “high positioned govt. & military officials”"
Of course he does, through Okie and Blaino and the other gurus, the gurus keep him well informed about the activities of these government and military officials.
Even if it were true, who would be a bit surprised that someone in the government or military would be gullible enough to fall for the dinar scam? Not I.
"My banks and some of the dinar dealers…sold many of us dinars"
So what?
for all the spin i read here and other places WHEN THE BOY`S IN DUBIA @ THE DMCC START SAYING THIS IS A STRONG CURRENCY I`M LISTENING TO THEM NOT SOME GUY WHO SPENDS HIS TIME ARGUING ON A SITE THE SHOW`S YOU EVERYDAY HOW MUCH MONEY THEY ARE TAKING IN AND MAN IT`S ALOT! THEY HAVE I`M QUOTING THE THE WORLD BANK INSURMOUNTABLE WEALTH! IF THE IMF THE USAID THE UN THE WORLD BANK THE US TREASURY ALL BACK THIS CURRENCY AND NOW THE BIG BOY`S IN DUBIA ARE LOOKING AT THIS CURRENCY I DON`T CARE WHAT SOME GUY`S OPINION IS! MR SALEH SAID YESTERDAY IN A ARTICAL THAT BECAUSE THEY HAVE THAT LARGE RESERVE THE DINAR IS WORTH THREE TIMES MORE THEN WHAT THEY`RE STATING!
2collectg: "I DON`T CARE WHAT SOME GUY`S OPINION IS!"
Most people feel exactly the same way about THOSE WHO SHOUT EVERY WORD IN CAPITAL LETTERS and can't even use basic punctuation or sentences...
2collectg: "WHAT SOME GUY`S OPINION IS! MR SALEH SAID YESTERDAY IN A ARTICAL THAT BECAUSE THEY HAVE THAT LARGE RESERVE THE DINAR IS WORTH THREE TIMES MORE THEN WHAT THEY`RE STATING!"
No he didn't. He said nothing of the kind in yesterday's report:-
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http://www.ikhnews.com/news.php%3Faction%3Dview%26id%3D54350
Why do you lie about things that are so easily debunked? Do you honestly believe people won't check out your outrageous false claims? Maybe you can provide a link to Saleh saying those exact words you claim (and not just an "interpretation" by "DinarDaddy" or "OkieOilMan" who make things up and hope people will lap it up without checking every day, LOL) because I sure can't find it...
Going back 3 days to 2nd Sept comes up with this by Saleh:-
"said deputy central bank governor Dr appearance of Mohammed Saleh during the seminar a debate organized by the morning yesterday on the process of deletion of zeros from the currency and with it, it’s positives or negatives regarding the economic process as a whole: that Iraq suffers from the influence of the mass cash enormous estimated at 35 0.3 trillion dinars caused an increase inflation to dangerous levels, which called for initiating change currency and deleting three zeros them in order to shrink as it believes the use of categories of small cash.
pointing out that the deletion will be produced by issuing classes cash small up to 25 fils order filling a need transactions small future, stressing that the Iraqi dinar currently covered well and cash value estimated at more than $ 60 billion, a cap could keep the value of the dinar from all economic variables that could face the country."
35tn Dinar reserves = approx $30bn cash reserves - enough to support the Dinar's value when they redenominate, but it wouldn't even cover 0.05% of the Dinar currency at the laughable "100,000% RV" rates you keep fantasizing about. Even taking their higher figure of $60bn - In what way do you think $60bn cash reserves will cover $72,000bn money supply? That's less than 0.1%! If you took out a loan for $100,000k and you had just $90 in the bank, would you also claim to "have that covered"? LOL. It's obvious you haven't a clue what you're talking about...
2collectg: "I`M QUOTING THE THE WORLD BANK INSURMOUNTABLE WEALTH!"
No you aren't. Provide a link to a World Bank report saying just that then (an original source, not just a pumper "mistranslation"). Because Googling "World Bank" "Insurmountable Wealth" Iraq comes up with only your comment here on IBN, ie, you're the one who completely made up that "quote", here on this board! That's as credibility shattering as "quotes" can get... LOL.
It's amazing how many dinaraholics have latched on to the DMCC thing.
This was in the first paragraph of the article.
"Iraqi dinar has caught his attention because of the confirmation coming from the CBI that the zeros will be deleted from the Iraqi currency and that proposal was passed by the House of Minister."
They are using an article that confirms a lop to promote buying dinar. "Can't fix stupid" at its finest.
The facts appear to point out two concise situations:
1) The Iraqi dinar will re denominate inside Iraq, and reduce the number of currency units by a factor of 1000, while maintaining the actual value of the currency held.
2) The dinar community fantasy of a high value cash out of existing large bills is nothing more than a conspiracy theory. ...ie..There are no supporting facts or past history that this kind of RV could, or will occur. ....It is based on 'tales' and 'misinterpretations' that leave little chance for verification. ....If one were to be honest, this situation actually fits the 'poster child' definition of a conspiracy theory. ....But it also leaves the smallest of chances that there is an opportunity. ....And some of us are willing to take that chance!
MY ONLY WISH IS THAT EVERY BUYER OF DINAR MIGHT FULLY UNDERSTAND THE TWO PREVIOUS STATEMENTS!
Again, we will see!
I get the impression here that most posters are saying that the IQD will do something similiar to a reverse stock split. RSS is quite common in stocks to bring the price up, your shares are worth more but you have alot less shares. OK, so the consensus here seems to be that a 100,000% increase in IQD is impossible. Of course history is on the side of the naysayers. But the US, UN, WTO, Iraq, have sure went to an awful lot of trobule, costing bloodshed and trillions in US taxpayer money (the US has built a 104 acre embassy campus costing a billion and spending 2 billion a year to maintain cortesy of US taxpayers) Plus when you examine the IQD from the 25,000 all the way down to the 50, much pomp, circumstance, expense, and technology went into their creation. I have heard both sides of the argument: So who is right? I still do not know. But I do not think I have heard anything that would convince me to sell right now. Please do not take this as a 'hit'. I would quickly add that most of the naysayers here are quite intelligent and you may very well end up being correct.
"But the US, UN, WTO, Iraq, have sure went to an awful lot of trobule, costing bloodshed and trillions in US taxpayer money"
There was a lot of trouble, expense, and bloodshed in Vietnam. How much did we make off their currency? Wars cost money. Using that as evidence of a pending 100,000% currency RV is just silly.
"Plus when you examine the IQD from the 25,000 all the way down to the 50, much pomp, circumstance, expense, and technology went into their creation."
It's their first recent currency without Saddam's ugly mug on it, what should they have done, printed it on old newspaper? Counterfeiting a bill worth over 21 USD would be a very profitable venture, how is it a surprise that they'd want to try and prevent that?
"I have heard both sides of the argument: So who is right? I still do not know. But I do not think I have heard anything that would convince me to sell right now."
72+ trillion dinar M2 should be enough to convince anyone that a large appreciation of the currency is impossible. The dinar is a high risk, low reward investment, unless you're one of the dealers selling it to the masses at a massive markup.
No dealer here friend. Not pumping or dumping, just wanted opinions on other side of fence. Agreed IQD is high risk and I tell everyone to stay away from it. But for me personally, I am invested. Not a plunger mind you. I only have in it what I can afford to lose. I only tell people The IQD is a 'most likely to lose investment' if they bring up the subject. For me, I think it is kind of dumb to convince 'all the people' you can to buy it, why would anyone care unless they themselves were a pumper? I laugh at most of the guru's, they seem to require adulation or just want to take advantage and make hay while the sun shines. I am soley in the IQD because I believe it has a chance of profitability. How much? How little? Who knows?
"(the US has built a 104 acre embassy campus costing a billion and spending 2 billion a year to maintain cortesy of US taxpayers)"
This is overblown information once again. Yes, the complex is 100+ acres, but the embassy is only a part of it. ...The complex contains housing, a hospital, warehouse space, and everything else a victorious country might need in maintaining a 'presence' without actually occupying the country.
The embassy is rather small and located at: 33 degrees, 17 minutes, 53.88 seconds North, and 44 degrees 23 minutes 44.16 seconds East. ....Go out on Google Earth and see for yourself. .....You can even go through 'historical imagery' and follow the development of the complex. ....It is tiny compared to what we left in Japan, Germany, and South Korea. .....But this time the media is intent on calling it an 'embassy' rather than a military base! ....Politics at work!
I was not for this 'victorious war' as you call it. What good is it if the US wins Anbar but we lose Arizona to La Raza? Our money produced by American people should have stayed in their pockets. This was a very bad investment that will only serve to diminish our sovreignity as a nation. Americans are horrible at colonialism, but here we are doing it anyway, both parties are at fault, I was a Ron Paul supporter. But I digress, just feel I have a shot at making money with IQD, blood money, yes, but maybe if my investment makes it I can do some good with it and wash it clean?
Exactly… it all comes down to the 72 Trillion dinar. If that number is correct, and there is no reason not to believe it, then there is an ABSOLUTE ZERO CHANCE of a substantial RV.
The CBI reports that they have 72 Trillion.
The IMF reports they have 72 Trillion.
Most of the delete 3 zero articles mention to the 30some trillion in circulation, which is a component of the 72 Trillion m2.
The exchange rate currently reflects the fact that they have 72 trillion.
The IMF has stated the exchange rate is fairly priced where it is now.
For 8 years now dealers have been selling dinar bundled by the millions.
For the dinar to be valued at near 1:1. The money supply would have to be around 72 Billion. That means the numbes would have to be off by a factor of 1000.
You might be able to convince me that for some reason they are lying about the numbers by 5 or 10%, maybe even get totally crazy and say they are off by 100%. That would be crazy. To say and believe they are off by 100,000% is absolute lunacy.
Hello factfinder, this is where I got some info on the Embassy and such if interested:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12319798/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/new-us-embassy-iraq-cloaked-mystery/
Here is a 'newer story'
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12319798/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/new-us-embassy-iraq-cloaked-mystery/
Japeth - "Of course history is on the side of the naysayers"
It's not just history but basic junior-grade maths and economics. Iraq is simply not going to have a money supply that's 500x larger than the size of it's economy that's worth the same as other currencies with far smaller money supplies. That's exactly what the "Go RV!" bunch are claiming with Iraq - that despite the fact it has an economy which is approx $144bn GDP and a money supply which is approx $61bn (72tn Dinar), their money supply will "magically" jump up 1,000x until they have 500x more money in circulation than their economy. To keep things in perspective, the USA has a GDP of $15tn and a M2 of $10tn (1.5:1). Europe has a GDP of around $16tn and an M2 of around €10tn (1.6:1). Kuwait has a GDP of around $153bn and an M2 of $98bn (1.5:1), etc.
The "Go RV!" crowd though are basically stating that the Federal Reserve could print a staggering 7,490tn (7.49 quadrillion) more dollars to end up at the same 1:500 economy:currency ratio vs the USA's $15tn GDP, causing the $ value to plummet by 1,000x (just as Iraq's did in the 1990's), and then simply magically "declare" themselves 1,000x richer again without taking any money out of circulation - and that in doing so will somehow make the $ "1,000x more valuable" in international terms... That is exactly what the "RV" argument is with Iraq - and the cognitive dissonance of "warning" people of American inflation one minute whilst cheering on far higher Iraqi inflation the next is absurd.
What they call "undervalued" is nothing more than perfectly normal inflationary devaluation. This is simple reality - there's nothing "negative" about it - it's just the plain and simple verifiable truth openly stated in plain sight on the Central Bank of Iraq's own website, in World Bank reports, in IMF reports, etc. Iraq have openly, clearly and repeatedly stated they will redenominate. The only ones who aren't listening are quite simply the ones who simply don't want to hear it for emotional reasons (upset, fear, anger, pride, disappointment, anxiety, etc), but still try and argue distractions & trivialities whilst dancing around the obvious "elephant in the room"...
Likewise, Iraq doesn't want all of it's exports to become 1,000x more expensive in real terms for non-Iraqi's to import. If the Dinar shot up 100,000%, then all future business transactions in Dinar will become 1,000x more expensive for non-Iraqi's as without any redenomination, it would cost non-Iraqi's $854 to buy each 1,000 Dinar instead of 85 cents on every single future transaction / trade with Iraq. This is basic common sense even without the maths... The old "history is no guarantee of the future" is correct, but the "naysayers" are arguing on what's literally impossible - not just what's likely based on the past.
Please go back and re-read the very first comment on page 1 of this topic involving an example of future trade with a "post-RV" Iraq to see the absurdity of what the "Go RV!" crowd are calling for...
https://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2012/08/29/7-questions-for-dinar-speculators/comment-page-1/#comment-112669
No-one is going to pay 1,000x more tomorrow for something they do today, no matter how much you want them to, and yet that's exactly the effect a 100,000% RV creates on the flip-side of the currency trade...
Japeth - "Plus when you examine the IQD from the 25,000 all the way down to the 50, much pomp, circumstance, expense, and technology went into their creation"
It ain't that hard or expensive to print a a modern banknote. How do you think other 179 countries manage including far poorer ones, (eg, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Somalia, etc)? Iraq was going to have new banknotes anyway just to get rid of Saddam's face on them. All countries print new banknotes all the time even without a design change / redenomination simply to replace old / worn / damaged notes each year. You act like it's a novelty? You don't have to be Switzerland to have decent banknotes, even some poorer South American countries have advanced (even polymer) notes with 20-30 security features on no different to the Euro.
You're also missing the obvious fact that you don't change banknotes whenever your currency appreciates vs another - and an "RV" is nothing more than an external peg adjustment - it doesn't redenominate internal prices or banknotes at all. You only change banknotes when you redenominate. Just as Iraq has been saying all along...
Japeth -"I was a Ron Paul supporter."
If you're a Ron Paul supporter, then you might want to look up a few of his Youtube video's explaining the same thing we've been explaining to you regarding what happens to a currency's value when you print too much money and it ends up with a far larger money supply and more zero's on their banknotes than everyone else's - just like Iraq...
Japeth - "But the US, UN, WTO, Iraq, have sure went to an awful lot of trobule, costing bloodshed and trillions in US taxpayer money (the US has built a 104 acre embassy campus costing a billion and spending 2 billion a year to maintain cortesy of US taxpayers)"
How much was spent on Vietnam? On post WW2 Germany (Marshall Plan) & Japan? On Afghanistan (who redenominated / lopped under exactly the same US administration and war planners back in 2002)?
At the end of the day, this has ended the same way all Dinar debates do - those with the truth and facts will post them - backed up with sourced links - and those without will result to emotional / popularity appeals / insults, half-baked inconsistent paranoid conspiracy theories and irrelevant "but what about x" triviality... diversion tactics, whilst continuing to ignore the obvious big issues and obvious "impossible maths" like the Jordanian businessman in the above link (which you could replace with literally anyone in any country outside of Iraq - the effect would be the same globally, as a Dinar moving upward 1,000x vs everyone else = everyone else devaluing their own currencies vs a static Dinar). Think about it.
Barry, thanks for your information. I apoligize for giving you the impression I was 'emotional' and giving all the impression I am a Dinar cheerleading hack trying hard to pump the dinar so I can get you guys to buy it from me at super high prices to enrich my really fat bank account. The only thing I can say in my defense if I was going to try and sell my 'discounted' dinars to you I would not do it at this website, I would be the poorest Dinar pumping guru in the dinar universe given the strong intelligence here. I can see through 'those guru guys' as easily as you. However, I still maintain that the IQD could become a very good investment, and I assure you that I am not being 'emotional' trying to explain that to you. I appreciate your fevor againist this investment, but even the most ardent disciple tries to see both sides of an issue... cause ya just never know.
All the naysayers remind of a 180 degree flip of what they say about the U.S. Dollar & Economy, as they state it's getting better, good growth, etc.."while exactly the opposite is happening"...(One chart I saw, depicted where in reality the U.S. Dollar is only worth .04 cents)..What's really hilarious about all of this, is that many have lost, or are literally losing their shirts in the U.S. and it's markets, while no one has for the most part really lost much or anything with dinars, actually some have had gains with the dinars...(And then we have to listen to all of these Theories', on what CANNOT happen!..I think I'll just keep taking the opposite approach to the Naysayers advice, as it looks as it's the better way to go...watch what they say, then do the opposite...hey, it's been working ever since I got in this...and have'nt lost a dime!...Just will keep on making money!..Wheewww hooo!!!...Thanks Guys...You just may make me rich!...lol...
On another note Naysayers'...if I lose in the end..I'll thank you guys'...and dont feel sorry for me, as you told me so!..but if I win...you wont hear from me...and I still wont be mad at you all..I'll just feel sorry for you all!...LOL...
I’ll give you a nickel for every dollar you have. That’s a 20% profit for you.
Better yet.. it's a 25% profit. Let's do this, tell me where we can meet and I'll bring my stack of nickels and you bring your dollars.
I believe "some" naysayers are being prompted, and/or even being "paid" to discourage people into selling their dinars, (reverse pumping), some call this group Dumpers', and believe me, they are just as skilled and crafty at trying to make one dump, as the pumpers, who try and get folks to buy, hey, there's pretty much the same spread coming and going, buying and selling, dealers mop up if they can get the double punch on you. There has been reports of some recent intel suggesting that sellers are out pacing the buyers 3-1. If you noticed, many recent articles suggesting nothing will happen until 2013-to-2018, as per many of Iraqs recent articles. With that being said, it all makes sense. The CBI or anyone else can read any forums they wish, and continually strategize on ways to decrease their liability and improve their position. Even when, and if a good revaluation occurs, to where some could have a windfall, it will never be told to anyone, especially as per folks knowing about this, to where they could go out and buy a currency of any country's, and if a country was going to revalue, they will put out the opposite news and information, actually much mis-information will be pumped out, and the guru's will come in many forms...
P.S...(That's why I love seeing the negativity that Iraq's putting out, as well as all the mind-boggling theories that all of the naysayers are bombarding us with, as wherever there is this much smoke, with hours upon hours of resentment and worry...there's got to be a fire)...Just because of all of the worry over my having dinars...from what I've seen, I would never sell out, as I've got to see for myself, why so much concern over what I'm doing...I've never had anyone care so much about me..it seems almost like one of those love-hate relationships...lol....
Sounds to me like 4aprofit has his little tin foil hat on sideways!
...I speak up because the vast majority of accepted information on the dinar is total nonsense. ....Iraq is a poor third world country that has trouble paying its bills and feeding its people. ....They are privileged to have a hydrocarbon resource to change that, but it won't be a magic wand. ....It will take time and cooperation throughout the country to reach their potential. .....And none of those people making that effort feel they need to make westerners wealthy at their expense!