Tony Blair on the Future of Iraq

First, Government in a country like Iraq will always have a dual track challenge. Its leadership has to cope with the security challenge and especially where there are foreign players meddling in its politics, that is going to be very tough. However alongside the security challenge there is the simpler challenge of delivering better services and jobs for the people. The risk is always that the one overwhelms the other. Now of course the two are linked. But some of the basic changes around electricity, housing, water and roads. These have to be focussed on, and delivered, regardless. And though around the centre of the country the security issue is particularly acute, much of the country is relatively peaceful. Keeping the drive for delivery of basic services and infrastructure at the forefront of the Government’s priorities is essential and it’s a lesson that can be learned from around the world.

Secondly, corruption is an issue and has to be confronted. It is a long-term endemic problem. But again, what can happen is that areas of policy, for example, public procurement, can be isolated and protected if the right systems are put in place. Bureaucracy is also an issue linked to corruption but an issue on its own. The easier it is to do business, the faster the economy will grow and create its own momentum. So at least ensuring parts of Government work efficiently and fast with the necessary technical capacity is an absolute priority. Often countries find this hard because such capacity is hard to build. Iraq should have no difficulty resourcing such capacity.

Third, the development of a private sector is pre-conditional. One of the worst aspects of the Baathist philosophy was this almost atavistic belief in state ownership and power. Again, from round the world, one clear lesson emerges. To grow, a country has to encourage its private sector. The more this is done, the faster the results.

Fourth, in this development, foreign investment can play a part. When, as in the case of Iraq, a nation has been a failed state, the basic intellectual and business capital of the country gets destroyed. It takes time to replenish it. The private sector itself will take years to build its capability. Foreign investment in these years is a vital component of accelerating that process, not only for the money it brings, but for the management skills, the work discipline, and the basic ability to improve output.