Worsening relations between Turkey and Iraq have dominated the press since Al-Maliki accused Turkey of trying to divide Iraq by supporting Kurdistan and opining that Turkey harboured interventionist designs on the Iraqi northern provinces. The uneasy balance of relationships that Turkey is managing between the West, the KRG and Baghdad will continue to be a key feature of the political discourse through this month and a key influence factor in how much violence is perpetrated in the North.
Al-Maliki’s continued appetite for divisive politics and for centralising power, to the detriment of the Sunni minority, continues to be borne out in demonstrations and violent unrest in the centre and west of the country, especially in Ramadi and Fallujah. Popular resentment toward the performance of the government is increasing by the day, with a wide body of society including key influencers such as Muqtada – al – Sadr, openly calling for change or risk an ‘Iraqi Spring’, yet positively the call for iraqi unity remains strong. In Al-Anbar and the southern Iraqi provinces Baghdad has all but lost any legitimacy or influence.
The position was confirmed this week by the government requesting that local tribal leaders help resolve the impasse in Fallujah, a scenario that was also played out in Mosul and Ramadi. This, together with historical evidence, continues to demonstrate that regional influence is key and often more important than the official policies promulgated in Baghdad. In the capacity building scenario this confirms an interesting dynamic for foreign investors, where engagement must be considered at every level of politics and society.
To conclude, over the coming weeks events will continue to be dominated by the frictions mentioned above, especially the ‘division of iraq’ political message that Al-Maliki is currently peddling. Accusations of ‘provoking division’ were first heard during the protests in Al-Anbar and other Sunni cities at the end of last year, and were preceded by the ISF mustering around regions of conflict between Baghdad and the KRG. Given the obvious transnational influences in the north, west and east the central theme of how much control Baghdad can leverage will be a key feature through 2013.
Comments are closed.