WEST
At the wider provincial level Al-Anbar continues to have a low level of incidences, but there has been a slight increase in serious incidences in Fallujah / Ramadi and surrounding urban areas with 2 IED strikes killing 3 people in Fallujah.
The increased tempo by the Iraqi Army across Al-Anbar continues to have strangling effect on the protest movement but the lack of insurgent activity may be explained by an increase in criminal activity as smuggling groups ferry large quantities of supplies across the border to insurgents in Syria. Given the increased military presence it is likely that insurgent groups will continue to trade time for space and finance / supplies for future operations.
CENTRAL
Last week Baghdad was the focal point for violence with a predicted rise in attacks that resulted in serious loss of life, mainly in Shia areas of the city. This week has seen a significant decrease in the volume of attacks with only 4 IED attacks taking place during the whole week, down from a high of 15 last week. Despite the decrease in high impact attacks the daily churn of violence has remained with multiple assassinations against ISF and GoI personnel, as well as a few noted civilian murders. Of note this week was the 19 February VBIED that killed 4 and wounded 13 in Sadr City.
SOUTHERN
No significant change. Incidents associated with insurgent activity and sectarian tensions persist at an all time low in the Southern regions with what few incidents taking place being mainly inter Shia or tribal rivalry and organised criminal activity. Of note this past week was the detonation of several legacy IEDs in Jurf al-Sakhr and a number of high profile kidnappings in Al-Amarah.
There remains a specific and potent kidnap and extortion threat toward foreigners and foreign businesses operating in the Basrah, Dhi Qar and Maysan areas. Furthermore, the possibility of a sectarian motivated high impact attack is omnipresent, especially in the sensitive and religiously important areas of Babil, Karbala, Najaf, Wasit and Basrah.
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