- Basra’s oil production covers 90% of Iraq's budget, while the city is witnessing a strongly growing tendency to become a federal region. This will guarantee broader investment of the wealth of this city, which is also the only Iraqi port on the Arabian Gulf. It will also ensure a solution to the ongoing crises between the local government in Barsa and the federal ministries in Baghdad, as stated by the city's governor in November 2012.
- Basra was the biggest supporter of the policies of the current government led by Maliki: His bloc obtained in Basra the highest percentage of votes in the provincial elections of 2009 and the parliamentary elections in 2010. It is also worth mentioning that Maliki supports the formation of a strong central government in Baghdad rather than having several regional governments.
The contradiction between the two approaches is not the only reason for the wide conflict over Basra. Other considerations include the city’s large population (around 3 million), its geographic location and its large number of investments — in particular in the oil fields. All this has helped ignite competition over who will run its government.
The most significant point about the competition between Maliki and other Shiite forces in Basra is that the results of this conflict will help clarify the Shiite alliances in the Iraqi parliamentary elections of 2014.
Whoever takes over Basra’s government and leadership will probably have an opportunity to dictate alliances in the next government in Baghdad.
A likely scenario is that a possible Sadr-Hakim alliance could have a significant effect on the Shiite balance of power in such a way that not only prevents Maliki from applying his strategy to form a future government with a political majority, but also may force him to abandon his plan to run for his third governmental mandate.
Mushreq Abbas is a contributing writer for Al-Monitor’s Iraq Pulse. An author and journalist who has worked in the media for 15 years, he holds a degree in political science from Baghdad University. He has managed Al-Hayat’s office in Iraq since 2005.
The coalition already agreed for the Basra Governer election and who will be the new Governer is also clear. Sure, it will be better than before because the existing Governer is simply not a decision maker and always asking/expecting a confirmation from Baghdad. So, if the management of Basra will be carried out from Basra, instead of Baghdad sure the city will make more progress and survive from being a victim of Maliki's political career plans.
Why not try become part of a federal Iraq? Basra oil for the Basra people?