Dialogue on Contentious Oil Issues in Iraq

To deliver its results INES calls for specific actions on short and medium to long term horizons. If all goes well Iraq could generate revenue of approximately $6 trillion from approximately $620 billion ($530 billion as capital expenditures and $90 billion as operating expenses) between 2012 and 2030, including all contracted payments to the IOCs involved in the technical service contracts.

Also INES calls for significant institutional settings and governance structures comprising all related ministries and high level decision making.

The implementation and the outcomes of INES are not automatic or granted. It has to be fully, effectively and properly integrated to and harmonized with the National Development Plans-NDPs. The first and immediate test is the organic link between INES and current NDP and the necessary budgetary measures to allocate needed funding for INES short terms requirements.

In conclusion, Iraq exit from Chapter 7 and the adoption of the INES would have very significant and critical consequences for Iraq, but this requires sound, timely and effective policies, and this represent serious challenges the decision makers will face.

2: Samer Khazban, the Iraqi representative in 2013 Iraq Petroleum Conference held in London said that Kurdistan is not part of the strategic plan, because Kurdistan is not trustworthy, why Khazban is making this statement and is it possible for Kurdistan to be disregarded?

AMJ answer on Q2:

To begin with I am not aware of such a name, “Samer Khazban”, but most likely you are referring to Thamir Ghadhban. He is former oil minister and currently the head of Prime Minster Advisory Committee-PMAC.

I did not read the text of his speech yet, but what was reported in the professional and industry sources is rather different from what your question asserts.

What Thamir Ghadhban was reportedly said are two things: the first is "The 4.5 million barrels a day is based on the development of the resources within the 15 governorates excluding Kurdistan because of this issue." The “issue”, as he states it, is “Baghdad had lost confidence in Kurdistan after the region stopped exporting oil through the federal pipeline system.”

My interpretation is that because the 4.5 mmbpd is the “minimum target production level”envisaged under INES for 2014 and since the “exporting of the Region oil through the federal pipeline system” has not been restored the Region therefore was not included in this short term threshold. So the exclusion of Iraq Kurdistan Region is confined to 2014 production and export targets only unless the confident between the Federal and KR governments is restored and exporting of the Region oil through the federal pipeline system resumed prior to 2014.

The second is that Thamir Ghadhban was also reportedly said, “The three production scenarios outlined in Iraq's "Integrated National Energy Strategy" included output from the KRG”.

This clearly indicates that neither INES nor Thamir Ghadhban had disregarded Kurdistan.

Once again I must emphasis that I did not read the text of Mr. Ghadhban’s speech, and thus I base my opinion on what he was said as reported by the media.

3: Kurdistan government claims that the oil pipeline to Turkey will be completed by the end of this year, what is your reading for this step by Kurdistan government? Is this a step against Iraq? Or does Iraq need another pipeline?

AMJ answer on Q3:

I am aware of the pipeline you refer to, and equally aware of the latest development pertaining to it and foreign interests behind it.