By way of monthly conclusion: A number of key themes are currently dominating the security situation in Iraq, the majority of which the Iraqi government and security forces have little influence over.
We are almost continuously witnessing week-on week-off spikes in violence as Sunni insurgents build toward a series of spectacular strikes designed create maximum pressure and effect in as short a timeframe as possible. In the main these periods are then met with a downturn in violence as the groups move to re-supply and plan anew. There is also strong evidence that many groups are cross filtering and training with Syrian rebel groups thus ensuring a steady supply of manpower, supplies and tradecraft. Many commentators feel that there is a requirement for a significant training and capacity building programme to help develop the less specialized units of the ISF so that they may combat the ISI and other Sunni groups over a wider arena and with a focused counter-insurgency campaign.
Syria continues to deeply affect the fabric of Iraq. The recent flight of Syrian Kurds, in the face of mounting attacks by Sunni rebel groups, to northern Iraq and the warning of retaliation from the Barzani government has added another complex and possibly lethal dynamic to the already toxic cocktail that is the reality of the Sunni / Shia agenda that is being waged across the frontiers of Syria, Iran, Iraq and Lebanon. The KRG has a particularly effective and robust military, which if bought to bear could have catastrophic implications for the Sunni rebel cause in Syria.
Finally, insurgent groups have begun to attack key-point infrastructure and foreign business far more than ever before, with numerous attacks on oil pipelines and also the Port of Umm Qasr, possibly as part of a widening campaign designed to further pressurize the government on both the social and economic front. Whilst we will always see a few attacks of this type it remains too early to tell whether this develops into a full-blown campaign of economic disruption.
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