Iraqi Kurdistan Elections Could Be Turning Point

The second parliamentary elections took place on Jan. 30, 2005. Again, the two ruling parties formed a cabinet. In the third parliamentary election held on July 25, 2009, a strong opposition party emerged and won 25 out of 111 seats. The two ruling parties only won 59 seats combined. The two Islamic opposition parties won 10 seats and announced their opposition.

This history of parliamentarian elections clearly shows the loss of seats of the two ruling parties. Unsurprisingly, they are expected to lose a few more seats as people’s demands have not been met due to corruption and "undemocratic rule" in the KRG.

The following four political scenarios all have the potential of occurring after the elections in September:

KDP and PUK continuation of their agreements

As the KDP and PUK run on separate lists, the destiny of a strategic agreement is unclear.

After 2003, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq saw two parliamentary elections — in 2005 and 2009 — in which the two ruling parties ran on a coalition list. At the same time, they also ran in Iraq’s general elections on a coalition list. That resulted in the formation of joint cabinets.

The KDP and PUK ran in the previous elections as per the accord of their so-called strategic agreement (July 27, 2007), which was based on the Washington agreement (1998).

Over the past eight years, the KDP and PUK have ruled the KRG in a united government. In practice, though, the KRG's KDP and PUK divide the region into two zones, as police and security forces — peshmerga forces — have not been united and PUK members cannot get high-level positions in governmental offices in the KDP zone, and vice versa.

In the upcoming elections, the KDP and PUK will run on separate lists, which may become a turning point for KRG politics.

Shorsh Ismail, PUK’s election foundation chief, told Spee Meedia Magazine in the August 2013 issue that the fourth parliamentary elections "differ considerably" in comparison with previous ones as a result of the parties running independently.