Iraqi Kurdistan Elections Could Be Turning Point

However, currently there is a harsh war of words between opposition parties and the PUK as well as with the KDP, but it seems that the opposition favors the PUK for a coalition government.

The difference between the main opposition party — the Gorran movement — and the KDP and PUK is only 5 seats, which is expected to change to an even smaller number. Gorran is participating in the hope of at least becoming the runner-up in the KRG. Nawshirwan Mustafa, leader of the Change movement, has announced on different occasions that Gorran's second step will be "to seize power."

The other two opposition parties — Islamic Union and Islamic Group, which have 10 seats in parliament — have been actively working with Gorran, and they have been unanimous concerning most decisions on political issues in the KRG. In any case, it seems that opposition parties will be unanimous in participating in a coalition government as well.

If the KDP wins the majority of the votes, the PUK can form a new cabinet with the opposition parties — similar to what happened in Israel’s legislative elections in 2009, when the Kadima Party won the most Knesset seats but Likud formed a new cabinet.

KDP and a coalition of opposition parties

After the Feb. 17, 2011, events in Sulaimaniyah — in which KDP peshmerga forces fired on protesters killing five, and KDP supporters attacked opposition parties’ headquarters in Dahuk and Erbil, setting on fire the Islamic Union and Gorran movement’s headquarters — relations between them worsened.

Relations have not developed much, but a coalition government of KDP and opposition parties is not impossible, as the KDP is expected to keep its strength in Dahuk and Erbil — which cannot be ignored — and in all areas of the government, economy, intelligence and including its peshmerga and security forces.

Aside from all this, the KDP is expected to become closer to the opposition parties after the elections, and to form a new cabinet especially if the PUK does not finish second.