Parliament to Resume Debate on Electoral Law

In an interesting reflection of the unpopularity of the single constituency outside the Kurdish camp, the secular but increasingly Sunni-dominated Iraqiyya has voiced opposition to the Kurdish proposal. That is noteworthy since Iraqiyya might well have gained something from a more proportional system in which they could pick up a little bit more points from scattered Sunni and secular minorities south of Baghdad.

If that wasn’t enough, though, other problems are lurking too. Back in 2009 there was a huge debate about special arrangements for the disputed city of Kirkuk. Eventually, a highly theoretical method for scrutinizing the result was adopted, but it was never put into practice because the contesting parties – Kurds and Iraqiyya – seemed happy with the outcome (it was the Iraqiyya camp that had introduced the idea of a special status for Kirkuk as it was assumed the Kurds would dominate the process there). However, the issue could easily come up again, possibly in combination with the other contentious issue of minority seats, if the conflict over other parts of the election law persists.

Iraqiyya and the Shiite Islamists have enough votes to trump the Kurds on constituency size unless they start quarreling internally over Sainte Lague versus the largest remainder distribution mechanism. Another question is to what extent the regional sectarian climate will influence the Iraqi decision on these matters.

Lately, events in Syria have brought Iraq’s Shiite Islamists and Kurds closer together again, presenting them with a considerable dilemma and the prospect of regional side effects from any major quarrel in the Iraqi parliament. The president of the Kurdish federal region, Masud Barzani, has already threatened to boycott the next parliamentary elections if Kurdish interests aren’t safeguarded in the electoral arrangements.

Barzani is himself under pressure because of his loyalties to Turkey (which supports the Syrian opposition) and his relations to other Iraqi Kurds (some of whom are more favourably inclined towards the Assad regime). Hopefully, though, Iraqis will use the election law debate as a means to build political bridges domestically instead of importing ever more problems from abroad.