Secret Deal sees Al Qaeda Leave Fallujah

All of which means that the decisive elements in any upcoming conflict, whether that be military or political, are the local tribes.

A retired US army commander, who served in Iraq and who asked not to be named, told NIQASH that there could be no military solution in Anbar. “This city knows how to resist its enemies,” he told NIQASH. “Even great armies have not been able conquer the city by force. The government should reconcile with the people of Fallujah and it should announce an amnesty for anyone who did join Al Qaeda.”

The commander recalled the US-sponsored Awakening Movement, as it was known. At one stage the home grown initiative dating back to 2006 - which saw tribal groups with a Sunni Muslim background halting their fight against the US military and instead taking up arms against Sunni Muslim extremists, particularly al-Qaeda – was considered the US military's magic bullet in Iraq.

“It seems like things started to go backwards when we left the country though,” he notes. “In Fallujah people always repeat the same thing: Your weapon is your honour. It’s difficult to use logic against that and history has shown that this city repudiates injustice.”

Also worth remembering is how Anbar’s tribes reacted in 1995 when former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein executed Mohammed Madloum al-Dulaimi, a high ranking army officer from Anbar and a member of the same tribe as the arrested politician al-Alwani. Hussein was himself a Sunni Muslim but angry Anbar locals took over the city for ten days anyway. The insurgency was only ended when Hussein drove his tanks into Fallujah.

In terms of a political solution, it will be difficult for al-Maliki to win back the confidence of the Sunni Muslim tribes in Anbar. He has insulted the bigger tribes by forcefully ending the protests. Arresting al-Alwani on top of other similar high profile arrests has not helped him either.

In fact, presently, the balance of feeling probably favours ISIS.  However as many local analysts also suggest, in the long term Anbar’s tribes are unlikely to tolerate ISIS or any other extremists because of their bad behaviour. Instead they – and many others - suggest that the Iraqi government take firm and genuine steps toward real reconciliation with the country’s Sunni Muslims. It is, they suggest, the only solution.