The rapid developments in Iraq and the diverse variables on the ground have complicated the situation in an unprecedented way, which make any wise political decision-making difficult. The most significant variables in the Iraqi situation are:
First, the fledgling political process in Iraq requires statesmanship, since any abnormal development — such as ousting the government by illegal means — would pave the way for demolishing the rest of the democratic framework in the country. Therefore, Sistani was keen to avoid any interference in the political process, or impose certain visions to establish legal grounds allowing the religious authority to flagrantly interfere in the political process.
Second, indications confirm that there is a quasi-consensus internally and externally to prevent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki from taking up power for a third term. Thus, analysts believe that Maliki's operations in Anbar in the run-up to the elections, can be seen as his last attempt to mobilize early support for his electoral campaign by fomenting sectarian conflict in the country. From this perspective, any interference on the part of Sistani will give a chance to the warring political parties to use it to their advantage and further exacerbate the situation.
Third, Sistani has showed his discontent with Maliki's government for two years and supported the peaceful demands of Sunni and Shiite protesters on many occasions. A source close to the religious authority in Najaf told Al-Monitor that there is a conviction that the operations in Anbar will be swiftly carried out and that the military institution should not come under political criticism. The failed government is to be censured and not the army. The army ought to be supported in its defense of the country and its mistakes ought to be corrected in such a way that does not undermine its institutional position in the country, according to the source.
Sheikh Bashir al-Najafi, a cleric coordinating with Sistani's office, issued a statement on the occasion of the anniversary of the foundation of the Iraqi Army on Jan. 6, warning against using the army as a political card to win the elections, referring to those who failed to properly serve the nation as the reason for the impasse the country is facing today.
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