Weekly Security Update 21-27 Jan 2014

On 27 January, eight civilians were killed and 39 injured when airstrikes hit districts of Fallujah. Militant tactics continued to mainly consist of IEDs and small arms attacks against ISF elements, though two VBIEDs were used to target an army patrol in the outskirts of Fallujah.

Due to the lack of intelligence support in urban areas and subsequent difficulty to launch a direct assault on the cities, the situation is likely to remain stagnant and result in increased militant activity in surrounding governorates.

South

Levels of violence in southern provinces remained unchanged as militant resources appear to be focused on northern and central governorates, where complex operations can be supported more efficiently.

Shia-dominated regions in the south east of Iraq have not witnessed mass-casualty attacks since 28 November 2013, which could be indicative of a tactical shift driven by the ongoing unrest in Anbar, creating an increasing number of opportunities for militants in northern governorates.

Babil continued to attract most incidents, owing to its proximity with restive Baghdad and Anbar provinces. On 22 January, series of IEDs detonated against ISF targets and caused scores of casualties. Despite the assessment on AQI tactics, heightened tensions between rival political parties in the lead-up to the April elections could foster intra-Shia violence and result in greater instability across the south. Current patterns of violence should be sustained over the next reporting period, with south-eastern provinces expected to remain largely peaceful.