Prospects of Shiite 'National Alliance' Hinge on Maliki

On the other hand, deputies from the Sadrist Ahrar bloc announced that they, too, want to see the return of the Shiite alliance, but on condition that the alliance choose a prime minister who is acceptable to all major parties in the country.

With the exception of the State of Law Coalition, all other Shiite groups are looking to “institutionalize” the National Alliance to lead the next government, instead of keeping it as a marginal entity whose only mission is to support the decisions of the prime minister. The “institutionalization” idea aims to restrict the prime minister with obligations that prevent him from monopolizing power, a charge repeated by Maliki’s opponents when they criticize his policies.

In an article published on May 18, the day before the official election results were announced, Adil Abdul-Mahdi, a leading figure in the Supreme Islamic Council, a former vice president and a permanent candidate for the prime minister’s post, said that the best scenario was that the forces of the Shiite alliance meet and quickly agree on a prime minister, and then move to negotiate with the Sunni and Kurdish groups.

But to accomplish that, Abdul-Mahdi said that the Shiite alliance should be built on the basis of parity between the State of Law Coalition on the one hand and the Citizen Bloc and Sadrist movement on the other, and that each party should have the right to veto the process of choosing the next prime minister.

If this doesn’t happen, said Abdul-Mahdi, the likely scenario is that the State of Law Coalition would try to secure a majority alliance from outside the Shiite umbrella. In this case, the other Shiite parties would consider themselves freed of their commitments toward the Shiite alliance and would also seek to weave alternative alliances with non-Shiite forces.

Abdul-Mahdi pointed to a memorandum that Maliki sent ahead of the announcement of election results to the Kurdish and Sunni forces, inviting them to start negotiations to form a government headed by Maliki. Adbul-Mahdi considered that memo evidence Maliki is not insistent on the Shiite Alliance.