Iraq: Reconciliation or Partition?

If Maliki persists on pursuing the perilous path of political sectarianism and marginalization of Sunnis, Iraq will revert to its darkest years (06-07) of Death Squads, vicious Militias, ethno-sectarian strife and, eventually, a security vacuum that entails great risks and dire consequences for Iraq’s future generations, namely:

• Emboldening Sunni Shiite extremist groups (ISIS, The Army of the men of the al-Naqshabandiya, Jaysh Mohammad, Ansar al-Sunnah, Promised Day Brigade, Kata’ib Hizbollah, Jaysh al-Mehdi, and AAH, etc….).
• Precipitating the war between Baghdad and Erbil over oil-rich Kirkuk, given KRG’s abrupt takeover of Kirkuk and simmering tensions between Arabs, Turkmen, and Kurds.
• Disrupting Iraq’s oil production and export and, subsequently, Iraq’s revenues – petrodollars.
• Invigorating Iran’s centuries-old expansionist and religious ambitions in Iraq – turning Iraq into a satellite Shiite theocracy.

Inarguably, a genuine national reconciliation is Iraq’s Holy Grail, in other words, it’s an imperative prerequisite for preserving Iraq’s territorial integrity and political stability. To this end, United Nations (UN), as an honest broker in conflict and post-conflict nations, could play a major role in overseeing and promoting Iraq’s National Reconciliation, rule of law, and helps rehabilitate Iraq’s decadent institutions.

Conversely, lack of a genuine national reconciliation will ultimately plunge Iraq into a vicious downward spiral of sectarian violence; affording regional players Iran and Saudi a free hand in Iraq’s affairs and, subsequently, turning Iraq into a prime battleground for proxy wars as Syria’s civil war grinding on. Simply put, Balkanization of Iraq.