'Sunni' Rebellion shows Splits between ISIS, Others

But the crisis has moved beyond the scope of Sunni politicians. They are very far from controlling the Sunni situation, which is expected to spawn new leaders that reflect the map of the armed factions on the ground. These leaders will fight to represent the Sunnis in any talks, and may fight land battles over the shape of the outcome.

Today, there is another fundamental question that can be raised: Will there be a prolonged conflict between the different armed Sunni factions and ISIS before the emergence of a regional, international and Iraqi political vision? The answer depends on the Sunni-Sunni understandings that preceded the military action. Was there an agreement on how to manage the next stage, or was the ultimate goal to start a rebellion?

Most likely, the Sunni political, tribal and religious forces, to which the armed factions are linked, may have agreed early on about how to conduct the dialogue after the rebellion. If so, they can reach an agreement on the formula for the solution, but they are unlikely to have made such an agreement with ISIS. Even less likely is that ISIS, the military force with the biggest presence on the ground, would reach an agreement with the other Sunnis in the future.

(Terrorism image via Shutterstock)

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  1. Blowout week 26 | Energy Matters 29th June 2014 at 18:25 #

    […] An uncivil war in the making: ‘Sunni’ Rebellion shows Splits between ISIS, Others […]

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