Future Uncertain for Baghdad-Erbil Oil Deal

Hanan al-Fatlawi, a lawmaker and ardent supporter of Maliki, questioned the wisdom of the deal during the parliamentary meeting.

Later that day in a Facebook post, she dubbed the agreement a “national calamity” because it leaves the KRG free to handle as it pleases the remainder of the oil it produces.

In an attempt to ward off criticism, the Iraqi oil minister has said the deal "does not constitute a final solution" but is only a step toward a broader solution.

"The deal if respected … will guarantee that [the revenues for] up to 1 million barrels of oil per day from [Iraqi] Kurdistan, Kirkuk and northern fields, will return to the [national government's] treasury; that is tens of billions of dollars that we lost during 2014," said Abdul-Mahdi in a statement dated Nov. 14.

Abdul-Mahdi, however, has not said whether the oil will come from Kirkuk's oil fields and appears to have decided to remain vague on that matter.

The challenge for Iraqi authorities is to justify the deal as it amounts to an acknowledgement of the KRG's de facto control over the oil fields of Kirkuk, an anathema to many non-Kurdish Iraqis.

But to many in Iraqi Kurdistan, that is already the case.

"The deal is in Baghdad's interest, otherwise it cannot sell Kirkuk's oil," Sherko Jawdat, chairman of the energy committee in Iraqi Kurdistan's parliament, told Al-Monitor. "This is a preliminary deal and will be followed by bigger steps."

The KRG and Baghdad have been in deep disagreement for much of the past decade over controlling the production and export of oil from Kurdish territories.